PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Number one analog on the 6 to 10 outlook today was Jan 17, 1980.  There was a major cold wave after that, and that was also just after a cold wave.

Looks like maybe late JAN, but probably will be pushed back to FEB, because that's just what happens these days.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting surprise on the ECMWF is a low going in south on Thursday which creates pretty low snow levels and a chilly day for Western WA.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Big Scandinavian ridge and an Aleutian low.  The PV isn’t going to like that much. 

Models the last couple days seem to hint it might take hit starting a few days after New Years. Just maybe…

[Slushy Inch]

Sad attempt of an Alaska ridge, but a big shift west from last run. 

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Does wind in PS get any higher than that?

That’s the windiest frame for the Puget Sound area.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting surprise on the ECMWF is a low going in south on Thursday which creates pretty low snow levels and a chilly day for Western WA.

Yeah, a good number of days in the upper 30s.

[snow_wizard]

Friday night.  Not too shabby!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Sad attempt of an Alaska ridge, but a big shift west from last run. 

Gonna take a little time to get the Pacific to run its course. Still think we might start to see some hints showing up next week. And I base this on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Sad attempt of an Alaska ridge, but a big shift west from last run. 

The thing that intrigues me is the model are all in on a ridiculous torch over the Eastern part of the country going forward.  Normally that would mean an elevated chance of a cold West.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Gonna take a little time to get the Pacific to run its course. Still think we might start to see some hints showing up next week. And I base this on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Thanks Santa!

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The thing that intrigues me is the model are all in on a ridiculous torch over the Eastern part of the country going forward.  Normally that would mean an elevated chance of a cold West.

True.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just registered the first 0.01 precip today. Melt is on. Up to 35.6

Nothing until now?  How is that possible?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that intrigues me is the model are all in on a ridiculous torch over the Eastern part of the country going forward.  Normally that would mean an elevated chance of a cold West.

If we get cold, it will be with a robust +EPO.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty shocked how chilly the ECMWF get next week.  I guess I shouldn't be given this cold season so far.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

If we get cold, it will be with a robust +EPO.

Hopefully not too +.

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Does anyone else feel like they learned a lot from this stretch? I feel like I had a lot of growth and dove deeper into this world of meteorology. Hope everyone picked up something! 

Even for some of us "old timers" this one was a learning experience.

[luterra]

1 minute ago, icyasf said:

If we manage to stay under 32 for the next hour we would pull another subfreezing day in Corvallis. 

Holding at 31.7/31.8 on my gauge since 9 pm.  Warmup expected to commence around 1 am per the HRRR.  Will be close, any bets?

[Slushy Inch]

GEM basically same as Euro.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 39 after a high of 43 today. Still some slick spots on sidewalks.

[Slushy Inch]

ICON as well.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF kicks out a 40/27 day for SEA on the 31st.  That would be a fitting end to a very chilly December.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, luterra said:

Holding at 31.7/31.8 on my gauge since 9 pm.  Warmup expected to commence around 1 am per the HRRR.  Will be close, any bets?

I think you will do it.

[Slushy Inch]

I do like how millibars looks on the UW GFS. Potential 970mb landfall.

[snow_wizard]

North Bend still below freezing.  Just too much easterly component to the surface pressure gradient.  In these cases it's always a battle between the southerly and easterly component winning out.  Even here it is stuck around 34.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I do like how millibars looks on the UW GFS. Potential 970mb landfall.

We'll just have to wait and see.  The model look pretty unexcited about wind potential, but the chance is there.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  The model look pretty unexcited about wind potential, but the chance is there.

Pretty much total model agreement. GEFS too. 

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, 4Runner said:

Did someone say the east winds are supposed to start back up tonight? If so, any idea on wind speeds? Had a neighbor clock 65mph gust yesterday.

Much weaker this time.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Pretty much total model agreement. GEFS too. 

The problem is the models want to keep the center west of Puget Sound until it really weakens.  If that changes it could get wild.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, luterra said:

Holding at 31.7/31.8 on my gauge since 9 pm.  Warmup expected to commence around 1 am per the HRRR.  Will be close, any bets?

Surprised you guys are still below freezing-- widespread 20s up this way still with a stout easterly gradient. Mark Nelsen may come away with another forecasting win...

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The problem is the models want to keep the center west of Puget Sound until it really weakens.  If that changes it could get wild.

True, it fills too early and Puget Sound just gets low 50s.

[snow_wizard]

Don't look now, but the torch the models had shown has been pruned to just one day reaching 50 now.  Seems like the theme this season.

[TacomaWx]

37 now after hitting 38 a bit ago. Looks like a 38/26 temp spread today figured we would be in the low 40s by now. 

[snow_wizard]

Actually, some very impressive number for MBY to report.

27 days since it last hit 45

29 days since it last hit 50

Average for the past week (7 days) = 29.1

That's pretty top drawer stuff.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

37 now after hitting 38 a bit ago. Looks like a 38/26 temp spread today figured we would be in the low 40s by now. 

Looks like 35/21 here.  Might be 34 on the high....I still have to check my official thermometer on that one.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF kicks out a 40/27 day for SEA on the 31st.  That would be a fitting end to a very chilly December.

Looks like we’ll end up close to Dec 2016 here. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually, some very impressive number for MBY to report.

27 days since it last hit 45

29 days since it last hit 50

Average for the past week (7 days) = 29.1

That's pretty top drawer stuff.

I keep my dildo in the top drawer. I keep my Basil Hayden’s on the top shelf. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually, some very impressive number for MBY to report.

27 days since it last hit 45

29 days since it last hit 50

Average for the past week (7 days) = 29.1

That's pretty top drawer stuff.

The last few days here…pretty good event just 2 weeks after the last one! 

12/17 39/32

12/18 40/34

12/19 36/33

12/20 43/30 0.3” snow

12/21 31/22 0.5” snow

12/22 25/19

12/23 38/26 0.4” ZR

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The last few days here…pretty good event just 2 weeks after the last one! 

12/17 39/32

12/18 40/34

12/19 36/33

12/20 43/30 0.3” snow

12/21 31/22 0.5” snow

12/22 25/19

12/23 38/26 0.4” ZR

Too have two totally separate cold snaps in the same month is pretty darn good for sure.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

To have two totally separate cold snaps in the same month is pretty darn good for sure.

IMBY if winter ended today and we got nothing the rest of the year it would be rated a B. We’ve had a decent amount of snow and some legit cold…but our biggest single snowfall is still just 1.2” this winter. I do think we see some cold/snow atleast one more time before spring. 

[luterra]

34 minutes ago, icyasf said:

It has been holding for me at around 31.5. My bet is we’re gonna stay under 32 until around 12, and then start warming up.

Just hit 32.0.  You might make it if you're 0.3 colder.