PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 hours ago, Doinko said:

Is something wrong with the rain gauge at PDX? Somehow they picked up 0.82" of precip yesterday

I noticed the same thing. I’m guessing some ice accumulation on the gauge must have messed up the reading.

[Skagit Weather]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is truly sad being Christmas Eve.  Still only 38 here in the south wind / east wind battle ground.

For context:

[Kayla]

50 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

CA reservoirs about to gain a lot of water!

Too warm though. That has Tahoe river basin flooding written all over it. 

[snow_wizard]

Example of models trending colder.  Dec 30 on the 0z for SEA was 48/38 and 12z was 37/34.  Not sure why I was questioned on that statement.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For context:

OMG!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Too warm though. That has Tahoe river basin flooding written all over it. 

That doesn't change what he said though.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Example of models trending colder.  Dec 30 on the 0z for SEA was 48/38 and 12z was 37/34.  Not sure why I was questioned on that statement.

You need more than a run to run difference to call it a “trend” 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great example of the cold pool off the sw of Olympics.  Still just 42 here. But over 1 inch of rain in the last 5 hrs.

I have you beat at 38.  Still a lot of cold pouring out through the passes.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Example of models trending colder.  Dec 30 on the 0z for SEA was 48/38 and 12z was 37/34.  Not sure why I was questioned on that statement.

Westside 850s are pretty similar between 00z and 12z runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The tendency of the low placements over the next 2 weeks is looking more suppressed.  Next round of cold should be much better for Portland.  I give it 3 weeks max and we will be back in the freezer. Maybe sooner.  Gfs is already flirting with 500 ft snow levels several times throughout the run. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

You need more than a run to run difference to call it a “trend” 

Just saying this is what has happened for weeks now.  The models show a warm period and gets trimmed way back as the time frame narrows.  Last night's ECMWF also showed temps below normal again later next week.  I was commenting about the persistence of the overall chilly regime.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Westside 850s are pretty similar between 00z and 12z runs.

Things are just more suppressed on this run.  More like last night's ECMWF.  Sorry I brought it up quite frankly.

[TacomaWx]

Temps have skyrocketed this morning. Up to 49 degrees. May end up the warmest day since thanksgiving. I Like it how we had snow so close to thanksgiving and Christmas but just not quite. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The tendency of the low placements over the next 2 weeks is looking more suppressed.  Next round of cold should be much better for Portland.  I give it 3 weeks max and we will be back in the freezer. Maybe sooner.  Gfs is already flirting with 500 ft snow levels several times throughout the run. 

You're not supposed to say things like this apparently!

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That doesn't change what he said though.

It does though. Cali and the rest of the west for that matter rely on winter snowpack to keep the reservoirs filled during the long dry summers. That storm is going to kill the sierra snowpack which actually hurts the reservoirs.

[umadbro]

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Example of models trending colder.  Dec 30 on the 0z for SEA was 48/38 and 12z was 37/34.  Not sure why I was questioned on that statement.

I think “short term” is kind of subjective. The next 4 days or so look pretty mild. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Temps have skyrocketed this morning. Up to 49 degrees. May end up the warmest day since thanksgiving. I Like it how we had snow so close to thanksgiving and Christmas but just not quite. 

The ECMWF shows it may not hit 50 here today with the continued seepage from the pass.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think “short term” is kind of subjective. The next 4 days or so look pretty mild. 

That might be the problem.  I was talking more like 5 or 6 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Things are just more suppressed on this run.  More like last night's ECMWF.  Sorry I brought it up quite frankly.

They don't see what me and you see. I've been watching next week close for 2 weeks because I'm going to cabin  . That period has cooled a bunch,  especially later I. The week. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It does though. Cali and the rest of the west for that matter rely on winter snowpack to keep the reservoirs filled during the long dry summers. That storm is going to kill the sierra snowpack which actually hurts the reservoirs.

That would be true except the reservoirs are very low now, so the water will go toward refilling them.

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

They don't see what me and you see. I've been watching next week close for 2 weeks because I'm going to cabin  . That period has cooled a bunch,  especially later I. The week. 

I have watched it closely as well as I’m headed to Sunriver. Was prepared for it to be 40 degree slushy sadness the whole time and got pleasantly surprised.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For context:

Im shocked how much of your snow melted. We still have a few patches here despite getting less. 

 

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That would be true except the reservoirs are very low now, so the water will go toward refilling them.

Short term gain for a long term deficit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Some of the models show even a little zr up in the Okanagan highlands. Probably happens about once ever 50 years up there.  Will be interesting to see how well the arctic air stays in place.  Currently 6 degrees up there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I noticed the same thing. I’m guessing some ice accumulation on the gauge must have messed up the reading.

I noticed that, we only had 0.33" here, I had just figured places further north got more precip. 

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The tendency of the low placements over the next 2 weeks is looking more suppressed.  Next round of cold should be much better for Portland.  I give it 3 weeks max and we will be back in the freezer. Maybe sooner.  Gfs is already flirting with 500 ft snow levels several times throughout the run. 

I’d love to go through a period of low snow levels. Feels like it’s been an eternity since we have had cold onshore flow with 400-600 foot snow levels. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That might be the problem.  I was talking more like 5 or 6 days.

I know Seattle is the new north pole, but south of 47N things look pretty toasty the next few days. I see a few days in the next two weeks that look to be normal, maybe even slightly below, but I don't know if I would call it a trend. The models seem to be flailing around a lot, we had a run a couple days ago showing lowland snow at PDX next weekend...

[antipex]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

Where in N. ID are you?

Near the Canada border.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’d love to go through a period of low snow levels. Feels like it’s been an eternity since we have had cold onshore flow with 400-600 foot snow levels. 

I mean it was just a few weeks ago when we had 200-400 foot snow levels. 

[westcoastexpat]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Example of models trending colder.  Dec 30 on the 0z for SEA was 48/38 and 12z was 37/34.  Not sure why I was questioned on that statement.

Deterministic models have little weight at that forecast range... You should look for trends in the ensembles outside of Day 6 to have any significance

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’d love to go through a period of low snow levels. Feels like it’s been an eternity since we have had cold onshore flow with 400-600 foot snow levels. 

Now you are speaking my love language. We had a pretty good period of cold onshore flow down here in early November, and of course mid-April. 

[MossMan]

I would take that over this right now! Though my drainage is working well so there is that! 
Temp down to 44

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Seattle is the new north pole, but south of 47N things look pretty toasty the next few days. I see a few days in the next two weeks that look to be normal, maybe even slightly below, but I don't know if I would call it a trend. The models seem to be flailing around a lot, we had a run a couple days ago showing lowland snow at PDX next weekend...

It's to bad there isn't even just a decent high pressure and some cold air up in bc next week.

[Kayla]

Just now, MossMan said:

I would take that over this right now! Though my drainage is working well so there is that! 
Temp down to 44

I can't believe how fast you lost your snow. I'm sorry!

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 hours ago, icyasf said:

If we manage to stay under 32 for the next hour we would pull another subfreezing day in Corvallis. 

There's more than one hour until sunset.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can't believe how fast you lost your snow. I'm sorry!

That south wind is such a snow killer and it was raging pretty good all night unfortunately. 

[Brennan]

44 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just got my first ever weather station!

Merry Christmas! Exciting times ahead. Better get a nice log book for data!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am always of the mindset that once it starts raining on snow cover I just hope it melts as quickly as possible. If it's sunny then it can stay as long as it wants. November this year was probably one of the top 5 longest periods of continuous snow cover in the past decade. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now you are speaking my love language. We had a pretty good period of cold onshore flow down here in early November, and of course mid-April. 

It cannot get much colder than thr ocean temperature. Can it?