September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

Probably is true. But some rain now won't make them look lush and green like your backyard. They are done for the year.

 

Of course, I'm sure you realize the rain you get every year, including the last 2, is perfectly normal and has been occurring for thousands of years. It still seems to be a major concern in your life though.

 

I know its perfectly normal to get copious rain here.   And its likely been much wetter than the last 2 years if you go back hundreds and thousands of years.   That is why I enjoy the nice weather periods so much.    I would definitely enjoy just a normal rain total this winter instead of breaking more records going back to the 1800s.   Or maybe a drier than normal winter for a change?  

 

On average it is dry here on about 32% of the days from November through March.    It rained on over 90% of the days in the winter of 2015-16.    Last winter was definitely better but that was soured by getting rain on over 95% of the days from February through the middle of May.     

 

Give me periods of offshore flow and sunny days between the rain (which is perfectly normal) and I am good.   Offshore flow was almost completely absent in 2015-16.   That was pretty unusual.  

[ShawniganLake]

So are the ones that turn all rusty like that dead or just done for the season? I feel like I've seen them come back the following spring down here. Still, can't be good for the overall health of the trees and if it happened enough you would start to see some mortality, I would imagine.

The deciduous trees will come back next year, most likely. If you defoliate them too often during the growing season, then they might be in trouble.

[TT-SEA]

So are the ones that turn all rusty like that dead or just done for the season? I feel like I've seen them come back the following spring down here. Still, can't be good for the overall health of the trees and if it happened enough you would start to see some mortality, I would imagine.

 

Last year at this time in the middle to end of September... all of the alders around here were already bare.   They just gave up.   And our big-leaf maple was dropping leaves fast.  The cottonwoods were all yellow and losing leaves as well. It was actually worse last year than in 2015 and that was pretty bad.

 

This summer had a much more impressive dry, warm streak than last year and yet the trees look really good.  It has to be related to the insanely wet spring.  The alders are still completely green... same with the big-leaf maple and cottonwoods.  I am hopeful for good fall color this year around here now that everything has been thoroughly soaked again.   That should extend the fall colors.  

[Front Ranger]

SEA continues to stubbornly avoid the 40s. They've bottomed out at 50 the past 3 days, at it appears they may have this morning as well.

[Jesse]

SEA continues to stubbornly avoid the 40s. They've bottomed out at 50 the past 3 days, at it appears they may have this morning as well.

Are they courting a record warm month as well?

[stuffradio]

2016

The year is irrelevant, he is showing what it means.

[Front Ranger]

Are they courting a record warm month as well?

 

Not really. They are about a degree behind PDX, it would take a near-miracle for them to finish record warm with how cool it will be over the next 3-4 days.

 

PDX and whacked-out SLE are about the only stations with any kind of shot at a record warm month.

[Geos]

Nearly every analog on the CPC site tonight led to major cold in the NW somewhere between mid Nov and early Jan.

 

It appears there is going to be another major trade wind burst over the ENSO regions right on the heels of the current one.  Looking likley this will be a major La Nina.

 

Incredible about another trade wind burst. We've got already a significant area that is -1.5 and under.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Incredible about another trade wind burst. We've got already a significant area that is -1.5 and under.

 

CFS continues to be the most aggressive moving forward.

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles seem to delay the cooldown toward the end of the month compared to the operational.

[Geos]

CFS continues to be the most aggressive moving forward.

 

IMG_0941.GIF

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see the mean drop after the trade wind burst is done.

[DareDuck]

36 in Bend and 29 in Redmond this morning.

[Phil]

The analogs I listed back in August still look good overall. Thinking of adding a few more, and might remove 1951/52 depending on how the Eurasia/Scandinavia pattern evolves.

 

Still, the favored signal is cool October/warm November/cold January.

 

Some (very) preliminary cold season analogs I'm looking at.

Biased -ENSO/-QBO. Haven't factored in solar et al. The years in question are 1951/52, 1956/57, 1967/68, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1993/94, 2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2012/13.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BA6D3E5-ACEB-4924-A2B8-E5988849393E_zpskist1ddb.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/748F41CE-4757-4574-B6E3-AA31F1182812_zpsijtmwmgt.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F156246D-F9D7-4388-AB22-EA52EA2AD5AF_zpsk7wsw6du.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A3EDA95B-5655-4A63-A3DB-DD778883F5F0_zpsdniqidr4.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/38215076-C7C0-4B4B-A3C2-E7D5C34B1D17_zpsidcarmrr.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/19516978-3FE6-4839-9E76-CD8DD5B36ACF_zps0odlda3k.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BEF8D914-AA52-4E44-B985-316F4B86FACF_zpsrw3g4dye.png

For comparison, here's how August turned out:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CF2D15B1-F9FD-4ED5-AAC6-57E9D7FAFD12_zpsohnzd0ay.png

 

Here's September so far. Scandinavia/Canada have stronger anticyclones this year, however the progression of the NPAC is spot on. Removing one year in particular (or adding a few more) fixes the Canada problem

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AE725836-4167-444A-A83E-1542AF65F568_zpsitoy9ulk.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Some nice clearing over the NW interior and north coast this morning.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/pacnorthwest/02/pacnorthwest_02_20170921184222.jpg

It's been sunny up this way since late morning yesterday.

[Jesse]

It's been sunny up this way since late morning yesterday.

We seem to be stuck in cool, misty onshore flow gloom down here this morning. Loving it.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks weaker with the warmth next week than the GFS, and is more robust with the crash on the 29th/30th.

 

Definitely looks like ridging is about to build in again by day 10, but I'm liking the mid range trends.

[Geos]

Socked in with clouds so far today. Clearing up around Paine Field though.

 

[Phil]

Nearly every analog on the CPC site tonight led to major cold in the NW somewhere between mid Nov and early Jan.

 

It appears there is going to be another major trade wind burst over the ENSO regions right on the heels of the current one. Looking likley this will be a major La Nina.

I think it stays weak. All of the modeling now shifts convection from the EHEM into the WHEM during week two. This would act to warm ENSO overall, though it's only an intraseasonal excursion.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017092112&fh=-18&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Jesse]

I think it stays weak. All of the modeling now shifts convection from the EHEM into the WHEM during week two. This would act to warm ENSO overall, though it's only an intraseasonal excursion.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017092112&fh=-18&xpos=0&ypos=0

That WHEM word is back. Uh oh...

[BLI snowman]

Still only 55 here.

[Geos]

Still only 55 here.

 

Same here. Clouds are starting to break up to the east though.

 

North end of Bothell starting to clear.

 

[Deweydog]

This has been an impressively cold week. Full on.

 

#wewillpayforthislater

#creditcrunch

#28.99%interest

[Jesse]

Still only 55 here.

Same in the Salmon Creek area. PDX is up to 56.

 

If clouds stay thick there is a chance many places see sub-60s highs today. Which is pretty impressive for a mostly dry 9/21. Although they seem to be breaking up a little now.

[Phil]

That WHEM word is back. Uh oh...

Haha, well WHEM doesn't necessarily mean WPAC.

 

If it's a coherent MJO, then it will propagate into the IO during the middle of October. Either way, there are no signs of pattern stabilization for the immediately foreseeable future. Very changeable.

[May Grey]

[Deweydog]

The global warming freaks are gonna when they see this one!

[Phil]

Ensemble mean has a much higher wavenumber, though. The eventual move to -PNA/Aleutian ridge is legitimate, though, and should be expected given the ongoing strong Scandinavian ridge regime, which is a classic -PNA precursor.

 

[TT-SEA]

Same here. Clouds are starting to break up to the east though.

 

North end of Bothell starting to clear.

 

 

 

Clearing has reached Seattle:

 

[Geos]

Clearing has reached Seattle:

 

 

Now it's mostly sunny here and up to 59.

[Front Ranger]

Setting up nicely for some COLD lows tonight!

[Deweydog]

Setting up nicely for some COLD lows tonight!

Like a frosty layer of Preparation H on a fresh case of butt hurt.

[wx_statman]

Orographic lifting in NNE flow against the Coast Range. Don't see that very often.

[High Desert Mat!]

I hear it all the time, "modified" arctic blast when one is imminent. Is there such a thing as a true arctic blast in our neck of the woods?

[wx_statman]

I hear it all the time, "modified" arctic blast when one is imminent. Is there such a thing as a true arctic blast in our neck of the woods?

 

Every once in a while. Like February 1989. I'd say highs around 15 and easterly gusts to 60 mph is pretty arctic. 1000mb-500mb thicknesses dropped to 505 so it was definitely a dome of Arctic air with only minimal "modification." 

[Geos]

Received a quick shower about 4:30 here. Picked up 0.05".

[Deweydog]

I hear it all the time, "modified" arctic blast when one is imminent. Is there such a thing as a true arctic blast in our neck of the woods?

No.

[wx_statman]

No.

 

Party pooper.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sunny and 65F up this way today and it's not cooling down particularly quickly tonight with some clouds rolling in, still no hints of "greening". Better luck next time?

 

On the plus the house warmed to 70F and I haven't had to turn the furnace on since mid-spring.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Here's the difference made by all that rain we got a couple days ago in the Southwest. Look at Vancouver Island and particularly Victoria!

 

firedanger.png

firedanger.png

 

Still looks pretty bad for the Island:

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

[stuffradio]

Sunny and 65F up this way today and it's not cooling down particularly quickly tonight with some clouds rolling in, still no hints of "greening". Better luck next time?

 

On the plus the house warmed to 70F and I haven't had to turn the furnace on since mid-spring.

It's 55F here right now. I had a brief downpour this afternoon sandwiched between sunshine. The deadish grass has definitely become much more lively the past couple weeks. Where I had big brown patches, I now have green lining the lawn.