Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Solid line of clearing moving in from the west.Down to 52 at PDX now. Barring some sort of wild overachievement tomorrow a top 10 warm September is probably off the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 00Z GFS is quite ridgy through 240 hours. GEM still shows the old GFS solution. Operational is definitely more ridgy. Let's see what ensembles say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 I know, just feels like this summer/fall debate goes in circles. Locally I like June 15- sept 15, but when making seasonal forecasts it just seems to make the most sense to use the meteorological breakdown of JJA. Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September.Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Operational continues to be an outlier in the ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Operational continues to be an outlier in the ensembles.Yeah it's kind of out on its own way up there. Go Canadian(s)! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September. It's the tendency of summer weather to carry over into the first half of September that gives the month a June-like average, despite being tempered by a seasonal cooldown late in the month. Not really groundbreaking stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best. My seasonal summer forecast was always June-September. You're off here...not trying to reframe anything. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Here's the 0Z GEM From Wednesday: And here's the 0z GEM tonight: Not all the models hate Victoria. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Here's the 0Z GEM From Wednesday: And here's the 0z GEM tonight: Not all the models hate Victoria. Good luck with the GEM! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 It's the tendency of summer weather to carry over into the first half of September that gives the month a June-like average, despite being tempered by a seasonal cooldown late in the month. Not really groundbreaking stuff. I think we all agree it's a very transitional month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Cougs take down USC! Nice. And Huskies just moved up. Great game. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Down to 52 at PDX now. Barring some sort of wild overachievement tomorrow a top 10 warm September is probably off the table. I think we've been essentially disqualified from top-10 status. We're trending for 66.6 at this point and sole possession of #11. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best.Yeah, pretty much this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Time to pay up, Kayla! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 I think we've been essentially disqualified from top-10 status. We're trending for 66.6 at this point and sole possession of #11.Satanic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it. So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11. My bad! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Satanic. Satanically warm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Pictures posted on facebook from Victoria over the weekend. Truly hell on Earth. Nuclear wasteland. Doesn't look like the Victoria I know, not enough dying trees and starving wildlife. This is what you'll find in the rest of the city: http://www.pacifichorticulture.org/wp-content/uploads/2002/10/2002_OND-JUSTICE-003.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it. So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11. My bad! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Doesn't look like the Victoria I know, not enough dying trees and starving wildlife. This is what you'll find in the rest of the city: Okie dokie. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 I'm blaming this one on NOWData @ the NWS. They shouldn't taint a sorted list of monthly averages with a day-old running average of the current month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it. So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11. My bad!Haha. Bad night for Flatiron. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 I'm blaming this one on NOWData @ the NWS. They shouldn't taint a sorted list of monthly averages with a day-old running average of the current month. A very rare error... but more comical because people have been watching this for days and at the last minute you moved the goal posts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 A very rare error... but more comical because people have been watching this for days and at the last minute you moved the goal posts. Hah. To be fair, I had it right a few days ago when I said we had ~0.4F of room to fall out of the top-10. Then I forgot my own stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Haha. Bad night for Flatiron. Cool September, y'all! Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest. Desperation! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Haha. Bad night for Flatiron. Bad night for me. The statman messing up stats?? No bueno. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest. Desperation!#CoolSeptember Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest. Desperation! You were definitely closest to reality with regards to where we would land this month. #10 vs #11 doesn't matter all that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Bad night for me. The statman messing up stats?? No bueno. Yeah man, what gives? You've lost your edge. In all seriousness I'm amazed you don't screw up more often, given how many numbers you store in your memory bank every day. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 #CoolSeptember #SucksToSuck I think you've taken the Captain Butt Hurt title away from Jesse. Well done. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 I think you've taken the Captain Butt Hurt title away from Jesse. Well done.Brrrrrrrrr!!!!! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 You're just trying to distract from your mistakes, by harping on mine. Pathetic. Keep going, Phil. You're making it clear you're the bigger man here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 00z Euro still has the stupid ULL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Keep going, Phil. You're making it clear you're the bigger man here.I'm just having fun now. You opened this can of worms, so I'll leave it up to you to close it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 00z Euro trended cooler overall than the 12z run. 06z GFS still tries to get us pretty warm next week, but it looks like it is a notable outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Surprised to see PDX hit a low of 47 this morning after getting a pre-midnight low of 50 yesterday. They really pulled off a last minute overperformance to avoid a top warm September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Time to pay up, Kayla! Luckily I wasn't the one who took it to Vegas! Good game. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 It looks like you got some much needed rain there yesterday. I have not been paying attention to the PNW thread recently because it's been sunny and hot here this week after a few days last week that were like late October. October does start tomorrow already. Any fires in So Cal have been contained rather quickly, but we have not had a strong Santa Ana Wind event yet. Those can spread fires from the mountains to the coast in one night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Surprised to see PDX hit a low of 47 this morning after getting a pre-midnight low of 50 yesterday. They really pulled off a last minute overperformance to avoid a top warm September.One night should not make a huge difference for the monthly average. If this September were warmest ever by 0.01 degrees, one cold night could maybe make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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