September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

@ 4:45 PDT, the moment Maria got upgraded to a Cat 5. That's Dominica immediately to the west of the eyewall. 

[TT-SEA]

Maria is going nuclear in almost the exact same location that Irma did, just a few weeks ago.

 

Jose also underwent rapid intensification there and briefly touched 155mph. Something about the environment in that area is blowing these storms up this year.

 

What islands are in the path of this beast?   

 

Puerto Rico?   

[Phil]

Holy f**k. A new dropsonde recorded an instantaneous wind speed (not gust) of 193mph just 500ft off the surface. Maria might give Irma a run for her money.

[Phil]

What islands are in the path of this beast?

 

Puerto Rico?

About to landfall in Dominica, then should make another landfall in Puerto Rico. Been a long time since they've had a Cat5.

[wx_statman]

Maria is going nuclear in almost the exact same location that Irma did, just a few weeks ago.

 

Jose also underwent rapid intensification there and briefly touched 155mph. Something about the environment in that area is blowing these storms up this year.

 

No kidding. The northern Leeward Islands are about to see a second Cat 5 landfall in two weeks, after never having seen one at least in the modern era of record keeping. 

[wx_statman]

In local news, a decently chilly 61/53 at PDX today. 

[TT-SEA]

About to landfall in Dominica, then should make another landfall in Puerto Rico. Been a long time since they've had a Cat5.

 

Perfect... we need another US territory completely destroyed.   Lets go with a much more populated island this time.  Only 3.4 million people live on Puerto Rico.    

[TT-SEA]

Well said.

 

[Front Ranger]

Perfect... we need another US territory completely destroyed. Lets go with a much more populated island this time. Only 3.4 million people live on Puerto Rico.

A friend's parents just moved there for retirement. Not sure what part, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A friend's parents just moved there for retirement. Not sure what part, though.

 

All the poverty of a 3rd world country, but still the US! Great baseball though. 

[TT-SEA]

A friend's parents just moved there for retirement. Not sure what part, though.

 

I was doing a Google map street view tour... the eastern side of the island looks very much like nice areas of Florida.     And probably going to be the hardest hit with Maria.

[Phil]

New ECMWF weeklies develop a raging NPAC jet during the middle of October, but I've noticed they're often too aggressive with the jet at-range, so who knows.

 

Verbatim, it almost looks like a warmish/pineapple express type pattern, with a more W/SW streamflow. The entire country is warmer than normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was doing a Google map street view tour... the eastern side of the island looks very much like nice areas of Florida.     And probably going to be the hardest hit with Maria.

 

Yeah, I'm sure there are nice areas and probably a lowish cost of living which would be nice for a retiree. 

[TT-SEA]

Downpours continue... you can almost watch the grass along the roads greening up.  Also have some ponding on the roads right after the heaviest bands move through.

 

[Jesse]

New ECMWF weeklies develop a raging NPAC jet during the middle of October, but I've noticed they're often too aggressive with the jet at-range, so who knows.

 

Verbatim, it almost looks like a warmish/pineapple express type pattern, with a more W/SW streamflow. The entire country is warmer than normal.

Sounds like a continuation of the pattern we have seen every October since 2014.

 

Definitely starting to feel like after this week or so stretch of general troughing we go back to warmth for the foreseeable future.

[Phil]

Sounds like a continuation of the pattern we have seen every October since 2014.

 

Definitely starting to feel like after this week or so stretch of general troughing we go back to warmth for the foreseeable future.

Looks like a slightly cooler version of last October across the US, verbatim. I'm not sure I buy it, but we'll see.

[Jesse]

Looks like a slightly cooler version of last October across the US, verbatim. I'm not sure I buy it, but we'll see.

How have the Euro weeklies been lately?

[Deweydog]

Downpours continue... you can almost watch the grass along the roads greening up. Also have some ponding on the roads right after the heaviest bands move through.

 

We've had some wet roadways down here too.

[Jesse]

Downpours continue... you can almost watch the grass along the roads greening up.

We did a hike near Cape Horn today and it felt the same way. I swear that things looked greener coming down than they did heading up. We got a few heavy downpours during the hike, but it felt refreshing with rain gear.

[Jesse]

The weather today is such a nice change of pace. Just gorgeous.

[TT-SEA]

The weather today is such a nice change of pace. Just gorgeous.

 

Definitely a nice change of pace and really needed.

 

I am glad it will be warming up though... its too cold for this early in the season.    Actually thinking we might have a good stretch of weather coming up that we will both love.  Nights should be quite chilly with sunny, pleasant days.    Hard to complain about that after getting a thorough soaking.  

[Jesse]

Definitely a nice change of pace and really needed.

 

I am glad it will be warming up though... its too cold for this early in the season. Actually thinking we might have a good stretch of weather coming up that we will both love. Nights should be quite chilly with sunny, pleasant days. Hard to complain about that after getting a thorough soaking.

It does look pretty nice for the next 7-10 days. Beyond that, a crisp and sunny early October with a few sharp fronts would be great. But if the mild SW flow pattern that Phil is talking about verifies we may go from weather we both like to weather we both hate.

[TT-SEA]

It does look pretty nice for the next 7-10 days. Beyond that, a crisp and sunny early October with a few sharp fronts would be great. But if the mild SW flow pattern that Phil is talking about verifies we may go from weather we both like to weather we both hate.

 

Yep.  

[snow_wizard]

Holy f**k. A new dropsonde recorded an instantaneous wind speed (not gust) of 193mph just 500ft off the surface. Maria might give Irma a run for her money.

 

The Atlantic is just a hurricane factory right now.  The sudden shift to La Nina really set the stage nicely.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this pattern shift represents a major crash.  The daily average for SEA today was 12 degrees below the month to date average.  Wow!  The high here today was only 59...currently 53.

[Front Ranger]

New Orleans is more persistently humid than DC, but they pretty much max out at ~ 95/80, as opposed to 105/80.

 

We do get breaks, though. New Orleans doesn't.

 

I'm pretty sure New Orleans get up around 100 at least as often as DC gets near 105.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I'm sure there are nice areas and probably a lowish cost of living which would be nice for a retiree. 

 

Very low, from what I understand. Big part of why they decided to retire there - at least for a few years.

[TT-SEA]

Well... Dominica is probably being leveled right now based on what we have seen with the other islands that were hit directly by Irma.   

 

Population of Dominica is around 72,000.

 

http://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/images/project/Dominica620.jpg?itok=LnItyWU8

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like a continuation of the pattern we have seen every October since 2014.

 

Definitely starting to feel like after this week or so stretch of general troughing we go back to warmth for the foreseeable future.

 

I dunno...there wasn't a troughy period like this in any of the last three Septembers. Not even close. I think we're entering a new regime.

 

Plus, the large scale signal for developing -ENSO years somewhat similar to this one is definitely cool October.

 

[Jesse]

I dunno...there wasn't a troughy period like this in any of the last three Septembers. Not even close. I think we're entering a new regime.

 

Plus, the large scale signal for developing -ENSO years somewhat similar to this one is definitely cool October.

 

 

We'll see. It's you versus the Euro weeklies right now. Plus the long range models, of course. All showing consistent warmth starting up again in a week or so.

[Front Ranger]

We'll see. It's you versus the Euro weeklies right now. Plus the long range models, of course. All showing consistent warmth starting up again in a week or so.

 

 

Funny way to put it. I was just throwing out some legit reasons for hope, good man. You and I both know the models can't be trusted beyond day 10, and that doesn't even take us into October. Might as well look at other things as well.

 

There's no doubt the current trough is something different compared to the past few years.

[Deweydog]

 

Funny way to put it. I was just throwing out some legit reasons for hope, good man. You and I both know the models can't be trusted beyond day 10, and that doesn't even take us into October. Might as well look at other things as well.

 

There's no doubt the current trough is something different compared to the past few years.

You should have said it through an intermediary.

[Jesse]

You should have said it through an intermediary.

That Climatechangenado comment earlier really cracked me up. I'm not sure why.

[Phil]

How have the Euro weeklies been lately?

They've been kind of flip-floppy over the NPAC, but pretty solid over the Arctic and Atlantic. Most notable bias is to over-extend the NPAC jet after week three.

[Phil]

I'm pretty sure New Orleans get up around 100 at least as often as DC gets near 105.

We've had 23 days over 100*F since 2010, and 4 days with heat indices at/above 120*F (max heat index of 127*F in 2011).

 

New Orleans might be more persistently hot/humid, but our extremes are worse.

[Phil]

I dunno...there wasn't a troughy period like this in any of the last three Septembers. Not even close. I think we're entering a new regime.

 

Plus, the large scale signal for developing -ENSO years somewhat similar to this one is definitely cool October.

 

cd184.96.33.125.260.20.2.5.prcp.png

1967, 1970, 1981, 1988, 1989, 1995, 2005, 2007.

 

No reason to have 1954 or 1964 on that list, IMO.

[Phil]

Dominica is pretty mountainous, and given Maria's relatively small core, I wouldn't be surprised if she temporarily weakens to a Cat4.

[Jesse]

That's a shitload of lightning offshore.

[Front Ranger]

You should have said it through an intermediary.

 

I know. Just the messenger!

[Front Ranger]

1967, 1970, 1981, 1988, 1989, 1995, 2005, 2007.

 

No reason to have 1954 or 1964 on that list, IMO.

 

They were developing Ninas.