September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

That was 2008. Whether or not PDX's 62/48 on 8/31 will be surpassed with this one, just two and a half weeks later, is yet to be seen!

 

You're thinking of a different event than him. There actually was a fairly beefy trough Labor Day weekend 2009.

 

The 2008 event was definitely impressive, and yielded one very impressive day at PDX, but wasn't it more of a clipper-type deal? Not very wet, definitely not a massive trough like this one parking itself over the region for a few days.

[TT-SEA]

That was 2008. Whether or not PDX's 62/48 on 8/31 will be surpassed with this one, just two and a half weeks later, is yet to be seen!

 

I am pretty sure there was one in 2009 too.

[Front Ranger]

Late September 2007 was nice.

 

Very similar to late Sep 2013.

[Jesse]

I am pretty sure there was one in 2009 too.

That one wasn't nearly as impressive. At least down here.

68/57 and 69/58 on September 5th/6th. Today was colder and the trough hasn't even technically arrived yet.

 

8/31/08 on the other hand was easily the coldest day this century in either July or August at PDX.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Eugene still has an air quality alert from smoke.

[wx_statman]

It's looking like this trough could be the most impressive September trough for the PNW since 2013. However, that trough came at the end of the month. You'd probably have to go back to 2004 to find one this cold that occurred before the last week of the month.

 

Mid-September 2006 was nice. Snowed down to Government Camp, but it didn't stick.

[Dave]

Eugene still has an air quality alert from smoke.

The air quality monitoring system appears to be broken.  I can't detect any residual smokes.

 

http://www.lrapa.org/216/Todays-Current-Air-Quality

 

In case it starts working again, it currently says, "Service Temporarily Unavailable!"

[Phil]

00z ECMWF starts dumping snow across the high latitudes.

 

The projected Eurasian snowfalls are well ahead of schedule and would assist in building the Siberian High.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1515D0E4-A49B-4CC2-9BBF-4AD4918AAD9E_zpszerjtaf1.png

[Phil]

Greenland actually ran a positive mass balance anomaly for the 2017 melt year, thanks to a cold summer and excesssive snowfall.

 

Looks like new season is picking right up where the old one left off, with record snows already occurring.

 

[TT-SEA]

Does that model take into account falling precipitation though? From what I understand it only uses upper air analysis guidence. Hard to imagine the smoke particles making it that far east when you have widespread falling precipitation. Seems like the particles would be surpressed to areas closer to the fires.

 

 

The smoke is indeed back this morning in the Flathead Valley...

 

[Jesse]

Getting a nice soaking rain this morning.

[Kayla]

The smoke is indeed back this morning in the Flathead Valley...

 

 

The smoke is indeed back this morning in the Flathead Valley...

 

Uhhh, that's rain. Stratiform rain.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=JETM8&num=72&raw=0

[TT-SEA]

Uhhh, that's rain. Stratiform rain.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=JETM8&num=72&raw=0

 

Air quality is not great in Idaho and Montana this morning...

 

http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/p/national-interagency-fire-information.html

[Kayla]

Air quality is not great in Idaho and Montana this morning...

 

http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/p/national-interagency-fire-information.html

 

Looks real smoky in Kalispell as well...

 

[Front Ranger]

Models have slowly been pushing back the warm up coming after the trough. The EPS doesn't show SEA going above normal until day 10. The GFS ensembles are also slower to warm things up now than they were a couple days ago.

[epiceast]

Air quality is not great in Idaho and Montana this morning...

 

http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/p/national-interagency-fire-information.html

anything below Unhealthy is good in my book after this summer!

[stuffradio]

I'm back! I went somewhere else to get my cold fix, you guys should try it! I was in Calgary over the weekend. When I landed in Calgary, the air was noticeably more nippy than here. The temps in the morning dropped below 32F, and when I went on a hike, there was fresh snow on the ground. Some people here could use this experience to freshen things up.

[TT-SEA]

Models have slowly been pushing back the warm up coming after the trough. The EPS doesn't show SEA going above normal until day 10. The GFS ensembles are also slower to warm things up now than they were a couple days ago.

 

 

Looks like perfect fall weather actually... starting Thursday it should be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant for an extended period of time.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like perfect fall weather actually... starting Thursday it should be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant for an extended period of time.  

 

Didn't say it wasn't.  Just commenting on temps.

 

Should see some very chilly lows towards the end of this week.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't say it wasn't.  Just commenting on temps.

 

I was agreeing with you. 

[Geos]

No question a 2007-08 redux is a big fear for this winter.  I would like to see something break the back of that analog fairly soon.  As people have pointed out that winter came very close to delivering the goods on a number of occasions so it wouldn't take much.

 

Sounds we need something like 2007-2008, but with a more offshore flow.

[Geos]

Received 0.22" of rain so far. It was nice stepping outside this morning and smelling the rain cleansed air!

 

Looks like Jose might be an issue for Cape Cod on Wednesday.

 

[Jesse]

First snow of the season at Timberline Lodge this morning.

 

[Geos]

Winter Storm watch for Rainier and surrounding areas.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
219 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

WAZ569-182215-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0001.170919T0100Z-170919T1800Z/
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
219 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES OF PIERCE AND
LEWIS COUNTIES ABOVE 5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...A total of 8 to 14 inches are possible by
late Tuesday morning.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Paradise on Mount Rainier and Chinook
Pass.

* TIMING...The heaviest snow is expected to fall tonight.

* SNOW LEVEL...Near 5500 feet, lowering to near 5000 feet early
Tuesday.

* MAIN IMPACT...Winter driving conditions are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

[TT-SEA]

Received 0.22" of rain so far. It was nice stepping outside this morning and smelling the rain cleansed air!

 

Looks like Jose might be an issue for Cape Cod on Wednesday.

 

 

 

Also shows the rain event for Wednesday morning going even further south of us than previous runs.

[stuffradio]

Whistler got a dusting of snow.

 

[Jesse]

Seems like the kind of day where we could see some cold core thunderstorms in spots, later on.

[Geos]

Also shows the rain event for Wednesday morning going even further south of us than previous runs.

 

Still looks like a decent rain.

 

 

 

[Thunder98]

Storm #1 totals for the Puget Sound area so far.

 

Olympia: 0.32"

Tacoma: 0.31"

Seattle (Boeing Field): 0.06"

Everett: 0.33"

Mount Vernon: 0.13"

Bellingham: 0.25"

 

Sources:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KOLM&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KTIW&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBFI&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KPAE&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBVS&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

[Anti Marine Layer]

They finally got some measurable rain in Portland.

[Jesse]

Picked up close to .3" this morning. The air smells and feels the freshest it has in a long time.

 

54 right now after a low of 51. It's dried out for now but it looks like there is another healthy batch of showers off to the west.

[BLI snowman]

They finally got some measurable rain in Portland.

 

Measurable rain is a pretty big deal in these parts.

[Jesse]

Measurable rain is a pretty big deal in these parts.

We're ahead of Laguna Beach, for now, but I'm sure they will catch up to us again in the coming days.

[ShawniganLake]

Modelling has sure trended drier over the next couple weeks up this way. Maybe 0.1" over the next few days and then the GFS has been consistently showing dry weather the next 2 weeks.

[Jesse]

Modelling has sure trended drier over the next couple weeks up this way. Maybe 0.1" over the next few days and then the GFS has been consistently showing dry weather the next 2 weeks.

GFS spits out 3" for us between now and Wednesday. I'm sure that is overdone. But 1"-1.5" wouldn't surprise me for our Sunday-Wednesday total.

[Jesse]

Euro wants to warm us up a lot faster than the GFS next week.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS spits out 3" for us between now and Wednesday. I'm sure that is overdone. But 1"-1.5" wouldn't surprise me for our Sunday-Wednesday total.

Yea, things have trended south a fair bit. We had 0.04" yesterday with the 12z showing a few hundredths of an inch later today and again Wednesday.

[Front Ranger]

Euro wants to warm us up a lot faster than the GFS next week.

 

Canadian is more like the GFS. Still, can't ever bet against the Euro days 7+.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm heading up to the Cariboo area this weekend. If the skies are clear it should be well down into the 20's during the early mornings.

 

Clinton, BC has been 22, 23, 29, 27 the past 4 mornings.

[Jesse]

Canadian is more like the GFS. Still, can't ever bet against the Euro days 7+.

PDX's shot at a record warm September will likely be decided by how warm the 27th-30th decide to get. Stressful days!