September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

They were developing Ninas.

If that's your criteria, then you forgot a bunch of years.

[Front Ranger]

If that's your criteria, then you forgot a bunch of years.

 

Similar to this one, in that they weren't mega strong at this point and not following a mega Nino.

 

Which is why I included 1954 and 1964.

[HighlandExperience]

All the poverty of a 3rd world country, but still the US! Great baseball though. 

 

You would be surprised. Puerto Rico is actually a great place to live for Americans. You don't pay federal income taxes, and you can make twice the income you make in the US, plus it is a US territory. Lots of english speaking jobs there. Not a bad place to save money.

 

Excited for winter. =)

[Jesse]

You would be surprised. Puerto Rico is actually a great place to live for Americans. You don't pay federal income taxes, and you can make twice the income you make in the US, plus it is a US territory. Lots of english speaking jobs there. Not a bad place to save money.

 

Excited for winter. =)

 

Welcome back!

[TT-SEA]

Just about an inch of rain since yesterday evening... maybe another inch tomorrow.   

 

Any dry season stress on vegetation is officially over here.   Going to be lush green grass everywhere by next week.  

[Phil]

Similar to this one, in that they weren't mega strong at this point and not following a mega Nino.

 

Which is why I included 1954 and 1964.

In that case, there's 2012, 2011, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1985, 1978, 1974, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1956..etc. I think there are multiple ways to slice and dice these years.

 

I'd start with -ENSO/-QBO, then fine tune from there.

[Phil]

For -ENSO w/ -QBO in the analogous phase period, excluding any adjustments for solar/peripheral modes, you get 1956/57 1960/61, 1962/63, 1967/68, 1970/71, 1974/75, 1988/89, 1989/90, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2007/08, and 2011/12.

 

Obviously this is not sufficient, as more tuning is needed, but it's where I'd begin.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just about an inch of rain since yesterday evening... maybe another inch tomorrow.   

 

Any dry season stress on vegetation is officially over here.   Going to be lush green grass everywhere by next week.  

 

Well at least some places have been spared the ravages of the Olympic rain shadow. Forget the grass, mature trees remain on death watch in the Victoria-area.

[Front Ranger]

In that case, there's 2012, 2011, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1985, 1978, 1974, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1956..etc. I think there are multiple ways to slice and dice these years.

 

I'd start with -ENSO/-QBO, then fine tune from there.

 

Good lord...

 

It's not always by your criteria, ok?  <_>

[ShawniganLake]

Well at least some places have been spared the ravages of the Olympic rain shadow. Forget the grass, mature trees remain on death watch in the Victoria-area.

Nothing measurable here today. 2 day total of 0.04".

[Phil]

Good lord...

 

It's not always by your criteria, ok? <_>

I was using your criteria, dude.

[ShawniganLake]

Going to be cold tonight in parts of the BC interior. Already down to 28F at Clinton.

[Front Ranger]

For -ENSO w/ -QBO in the analogous phase period, excluding any adjustments for solar/peripheral modes, you get 1956/57 1960/61, 1962/63, 1967/68, 1970/71, 1974/75, 1988/89, 1989/90, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2007/08, and 2011/12.

 

Obviously this is not sufficient, as more tuning is needed, but it's where I'd begin.

 

And the bolded years all followed a major Nina or a Nino, which is why I didn't include them.

[Front Ranger]

I was using your criteria, dude.

 

No, you weren't. I didn't say anything about QBO in this case.

 

Similar ENSO to where we're at now.

[Phil]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nothing measurable here today. 2 day total of 0.04".

 

Sitting around 0.07" here over the past two days. There were showers today but everything falls apart as it gets close, feels like it's been ages since we've seen anything resembling moderate/heavy precip.

[Front Ranger]

You're obliterating your sample size, but hey, whatever floats your boat.  

 

I was looking for rapidly developing Ninas that followed a neutral or weak ENSO winter, similar to the progression we've seen the past few months. 

 

Never fails with you...any time a composite map is shown, you feel the need to pick apart the analogs used because they don't fit the exact criteria you want. Like clockwork.

[Phil]

No, you weren't. I didn't say anything about QBO in this case.

 

Similar ENSO to where we're at now.

Ah, gotcha. I didn't see you mention anything about analogs not following a major Niña.

 

The majority of weak (or modest-moderate) Niñas were preceded by moderate/strong ones, so this might kill your sample size before you have a chance to tune for other peripherals. But who knows, it might not matter.

[Front Ranger]

Ah, gotcha. I didn't see you mention anything about analogs not following a major Niña.

 

The majority of weak (or modest-moderate) Niñas were preceded by moderate/strong ones, so this might kill your sample size before you have a chance to tune for other peripherals. But who knows, it might not matter.

 

True, I didn't clarify exactly what criteria I used, but you immediately re-wrote the list and told me to eliminate a few years without even knowing how I got there! 

[TT-SEA]

Well at least some places have been spared the ravages of the Olympic rain shadow. Forget the grass, mature trees remain on death watch in the Victoria-area.

 

According to this site... Victoria has received 37.24 inches of rain since last October.     Not sure if that is accurate or where the station is located.  

 

https://us.worldweatheronline.com/victoria-weather-averages/british-columbia/ca.aspx

 

That includes 13.35 inches from March - May of this year.   Also shows 29 days with rain in March and 28 days with rain in April.  

 

And a summer with highs mostly in the 70s... hardly the definition of hot weather.  

 

We do live in a Mediterranean climate.  

[Phil]

I was looking for rapidly developing Ninas that followed a neutral or weak ENSO winter, similar to the progression we've seen the past few months.

 

Never fails with you...any time a composite map is shown, you feel the need to pick apart the analogs used because they don't fit the exact criteria you want. Like clockwork.

In my opinion, there's nothing wrong with debating analogs. This is a weather forum. I honestly wouldn't mind if you questioned me on my choice of analogs. That's the entire purpose of this place, right?

 

The reason I questioned your analog choices is because they yield this for September. Red flag, no? Honest question here.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/499EFCE7-DEF9-45F3-904E-BEF54FD3E9DC_zps7y7g1wdm.png

[Phil]

True, I didn't clarify exactly what criteria I used, but you immediately re-wrote the list and told me to eliminate a few years without even knowing how I got there!

What can I say? I'm picky, obsessive and overly detail-oriented when it comes to analogs.

[snow_wizard]

In that case, there's 2012, 2011, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1985, 1978, 1974, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1956..etc. I think there are multiple ways to slice and dice these years.

 

I'd start with -ENSO/-QBO, then fine tune from there.

 

I think low solar is a pretty important factor also.  Maybe even more specifically low solar on the falling side of the curve.

[Phil]

I'm still on board for a mid-October jet extension and cooldown in the PNW. I don't see a big -PNA yet, though.

 

Still, the ridging to open October looks intraseasonal. Doubt it lasts more than a week or two.

[Phil]

I think low solar is a pretty important factor also. Maybe even more specifically low solar on the falling side of the curve.

I'm with you on that one.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

According to this site... Victoria has received 37.24 inches of rain since last October.    

 

https://us.worldweatheronline.com/victoria-weather-averages/british-columbia/ca.aspx

 

That includes 13.35 inches from March - May of this year.   Also shows 29 days with rain in March and 28 days with rain in April.  

 

And a summer with highs mostly in the 70s... hardly the definition of hot weather.  

 

We do live in a Mediterranean climate.  

 

March was the only truly wet month in Victoria proper (maybe February too if you include snowfall), April was more in line with the climate norms, and every month since has been on the dry side. Also, look at the hours of sun there, it's off the charts. Low humidity has also factored in. With those conditions it doesn't take extreme temperatures to cause severe drought, though I'm pretty sure temperatures have hovered above average most of the summer.

[TT-SEA]

March was the only truly wet month in Victoria proper (maybe February too if you include snowfall), April was more in line with the climate norms, and every month since has been on the dry side. Also, look at the hours of sun there, it's off the charts. Low humidity has also factored in. With those conditions it doesn't take extreme temperatures to cause severe drought, though I'm pretty sure temperatures have hovered above average most of the summer.

But its a cool climate there even in the summer.

 

My boss was at a conference in Victoria over the weekend... I will ask him if all the trees are dying there.

[Front Ranger]

In my opinion, there's nothing wrong with debating analogs. This is a weather forum. I honestly wouldn't mind if you questioned me on my choice of analogs. That's the entire purpose of this place, right?

 

The reason I questioned your analog choices is because they yield this for September. Red flag, no? Honest question here.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/499EFCE7-DEF9-45F3-904E-BEF54FD3E9DC_zps7y7g1wdm.png

No, I don't think it is a red flag in this case. September is a transitional month from summer to fall. October has a more meaningful correlation with ENSO, and analogs don't always need to work month to month, especially in transitional periods.

[Jesse]

But its a cool climate there even in the summer.

 

My boss was at a conference in Victoria over the weekend... I will ask him if all the trees are dying there.

Spoiler alert...you will tell us that he said they aren't.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

But its a cool climate there even in the summer.

 

My boss was at a conference in Victoria over the weekend... I will ask him if all the trees are dying there.

 

If he walked down the Fort/Blanshard area he'd definitely see dying trees. There are plenty of others in surrounding communities, I'll see if I can get some pictures this weekend.

[stuffradio]

I'm at about 1.05 inches of rain this month so far. Nothing super wet yet, but rain activity frequency is slowly picking up.

[TT-SEA]

If he walked down the Fort/Blanshard area he'd definitely see dying trees. There are plenty of others in surrounding communities, I'll see if I can get some pictures this weekend.

There could have been an inch of rain this summer and it would not have been dry but would hardly make a difference given that there has been 37 inches in the last year.

 

There must be other reasons for trees dying.

[Jesse]

For whatever reason trees have been dying all over the northwest since about 2014, that I have noticed. Deciduous and coniferous alike. The Douglas firs took a big hit last year and the year before, a lot of orange needles and dead tops. Ponderosa pines as well. A lot of die off of branches as well as entire trees. The ends of many cedar branches have yellowed too, with entire trees dying in spots.

 

Big leaf maple and black cottonwood have shown a lot of stress as well, along with Oregon white oak down. Dying tops of these trees has been a very common sight, with leaves just withering up in crown branches. Sometimes the whole tree will die, other times it will come back the next year, but looking unhealthy with a ton of dead branches sticking out of the canopy. Entire groves of Oregon white oak have tuned a rusty brown in the last month or so. These aren't fall colors, the leaves will just kind of dry up and actually stay on the afflicted trees through the fall.

 

Not sure what it is. A combination of warm temps, multi year drought, opportunistic insects, an invasive fungi, what have you , but it has been and continues to be a very real phenomenon regionally. What's really notable is the diversity of the species affected.

[wx_statman]

There could have been an inch of rain this summer and it would not have been dry but would hardly make a difference given that there has been 37 inches in the last year.

 

There must be other reasons for trees dying.

 

As far as I understand, that wouldn't make a difference. The rain that fell last winter and spring would have percolated down through the soil and out of reach of the roots by the time summer started. The trees can no longer utilize that moisture during the summer. Extended dry weather + high temperatures can kill trees regardless of how much rain fell in previous months. 

 

It's a different dynamic in the mountains, where the snowmelt can recharge soil moisture well into the summer dry season. Up there it matters a lot more how much precip (snow) fell during the previous winter/spring. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

There could have been an inch of rain this summer and it would not have been dry but would hardly make a difference given that there has been 37 inches in the last year.

 

There must be other reasons for trees dying.

 

Perhaps, it's also been a terrible year for fruit trees in Victoria proper, whereas last year produced a bumper crop. Some of the dead trees seem to have been due to disease; we've lost many drought tolerant Arbutus/Oaks to disease over the past few years. The city is now proactively cutting down diseased trees to reduce the spread.

[TT-SEA]

As far as I understand, that wouldn't make a difference. The rain that fell last winter and spring would have percolated down through the soil and out of reach of the roots by the time summer started. The trees can no longer utilize that moisture during the summer. Extended dry weather + high temperatures can kill trees regardless of how much rain fell in previous months.

 

It's a different dynamic in the mountains, where the snowmelt can recharge soil moisture well into the summer dry season. Up there it matters a lot more how much precip (snow) fell during the previous winter/spring.

PNW trees are acclimated to dry summers... otherwise we would have no trees.

[wx_statman]

For whatever reason trees have been dying all over the northwest since about 2014, that I have noticed. Deciduous and coniferous alike. The Douglas firs took a big hit last year and the year before, a lot of orange needles and dead tops. Ponderosa pines as well. A lot of die off of branches as well as entire trees. The ends of many cedar branches have yellowed too, with entire trees dying in spots.

 

Big leaf maple and cottonwood have shown a lot of stress as well, along with Oregon white oak down. Dying tops of these trees has been a very common sight, with leaves just withering up in crown branches. Sometimes the whole tree will die, other times it will come back the next year, but looking unhealthy with a ton of dead branches sticking out of the canopy. Entire groves of Oregon white oak have tuned a rusty brown in the last month or so. These aren't fall colors, the leaves will just kind of dry up and actually stay on the afflicted trees through the fall.

 

Not sure what it is. A combination of warm temps, multi year drought, opportunistic insects, an invasive fungi, what have you , but it has been and continues to be a very real phenomenon regionally. What's really notable is the diversity of the species affected.

 

I would wager extended summer heat stress plays a factor. These trees have endured the two warmest 40-day stretches for maximums (in 2015 & 2017) since at least 1940. 

[wx_statman]

PNW trees are acclimated to dry summers... otherwise we would have no trees.

 

They're not acclimated to what we've seen in recent summers. A month like June 2015 is a huge shock to the system to trees that have never seen anything like it so early in the season, during the critical early summer growing phase. To say nothing of this summer's hot/dry streak. 

[Jesse]

PNW trees are acclimated to dry summers... otherwise we would have no trees.

Regardless of how much you may have enjoyed them personally, the last four summers haven't been normal for our region. Our trees aren't acclimated to the Sacramento we have been getting.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

For whatever reason trees have been dying all over the northwest since about 2014, that I have noticed. Deciduous and coniferous alike. The Douglas firs took a big hit last year and the year before, a lot of orange needles and dead tops. Ponderosa pines as well. A lot of die off of branches as well as entire trees. The ends of many cedar branches have yellowed too, with entire trees dying in spots.

 

Big leaf maple and cottonwood have shown a lot of stress as well, along with Oregon white oak down. Dying tops of these trees has been a very common sight, with leaves just withering up in crown branches. Sometimes the whole tree will die, other times it will come back the next year, but looking unhealthy with a ton of dead branches sticking out of the canopy. Entire groves of Oregon white oak have tuned a rusty brown in the last month or so. These aren't fall colors, the leaves will just kind of dry up and actually stay on the afflicted trees through the fall.

 

Not sure what it is. A combination of warm temps, multi year drought, opportunistic insects, an invasive fungi, what have you , but it has been and continues to be a very real phenomenon regionally. What's really notable is the diversity of the species affected.

 

I've noticed the same thing up here. A number of large cedars have died, and I've seen the same sort of browning in many oak trees. These are mature trees that must have gone through numerous drought cycles, that they're suddenly dying now is a bit alarming. Arbutus have been suffering for even longer, but that's almost certainly a result of a destructive fungus; the branches turn black and they slowly wither away.