December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[hlcater]

That storm on the 18z is an absolute beast, covers a large area of real estate.

Also has a quite a bit of ZR. Given the strength of both the low and the high, this will need to be watched for.

[Minny_Weather]

Can we not with these POPs DVN? Remember what always happens when you do this? 

 

I don't get the logic. Why would you put "likely" wording in when there are inconsistencies on timing and if there will be a storm?

[Tony]

Just WOW on next weeks storm. Tons of snow and ice and long duration to boot.

[Minny_Weather]

That storm on the 18z is an absolute beast, covers a large area of real estate.

Yeah! Now all we need is a Southerly trend and my flight will be cancelled.

 

I swear to god these always happen at the worst times.

[Andrew NE]

Yeah! Now all we need is a Southerly trend and my flight will be cancelled.

 

I swear to god these always happen at the worst times.

 

It always works that way, you stay home for 6 weeks looking for snow or storms to track and the day after you leave for a vacation it snows.  Has happened to me too many times.

[james1976]

Just WOW on next weeks storm. Tons of snow and ice and long duration to boot.

 

No doubt. Cant wait to see snowfall maps!

[bud2380]

crazy snow map #1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122018/234/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

The GFS shows nearly 70 consecutive hours of precip in E Iowa.  Starting at hour 165 going until hour 234.  That would be some kind of record.  If you break it down on the model, i'm sure there would be brief reprieves, but still.  on the other hand the Euro showed a progressive wave in and out in a matter of a few hours.  

[St Paul Storm]

That snow map on pivotal is much better than tropicaltidbits which reports ice/sleet as snow.

[hlcater]

I don't get the logic. Why would you put "likely" wording in when there are inconsistencies on timing and if there will be a storm?

Logic primarily being the overwhelming storm signal on many of the models, such that precip is likely(which I agree with) but exactly what that entails can't be said at this kind of range. 

[hlcater]

LMAO. High temps on New Years. It's a weenie map, I know. But I had to.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122018/288/sfct.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

ice map

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122018/234/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

Chicago with .50 of ice and 15" of snow...perfect.

[Tony]

Soooo, for Christmas I will take the Euro and the GFS for next week please!

[centralweather44]

Remember when the models had it in the teens here on Christmas?

 

 

 

Lol.

 

I’m seeing 27-30 degrees for Xmas. Where did the 40’s your wunderground call for go?

[Andrew NE]

I’m seeing 27-30 degrees for Xmas. Where did the 40’s your wunderground call for go?

He's back!!!

[bud2380]

We haven't had a white Christmas in E Iowa in 4 years.  Wow.  We've hit 50+ in Moline in 2 of the past 3 Christmas'  

 

MOLINE                                                                                                                        DUBUQUE

 

   DATE       TX    TN     PP      SF    SD      |         DATE       TX    TN     PP      SF    SD        
      ----------   ----  ----  ------  -----  ----     |      ----------   ----  ----  ------  -----  ----       
      12/25/2016    56    34    0.28    0.0     0      |      12/25/2016    41    31    0.19    0.0     T
      12/25/2015    37    32    0.00    0.0     0      |      12/25/2015    32    27    0.00    0.0     T
      12/25/2014    50    33       T      T     0      |      12/25/2014    44    30       T      T     0
      12/25/2013    27    19       T    0.1     5      |      12/25/2013    22    10    0.06    1.2     7
      12/25/2012    25    14    0.00    0.0     3      |      12/25/2012    18     5    0.00    0.0     8
      12/25/2011    46    23    0.00    0.0     0      |      12/25/2011    43    23    0.00    0.0     0
      12/25/2010    29    23    0.01    0.1     9      |      12/25/2010    27    21    0.02    0.2    14

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/Climate_WHR_1225

[hlcater]

We haven't had a white Christmas in E Iowa in 4 years.  Wow.  We've hit 50+ in Moline in 2 of the past 3 Christmas'  

 

MOLINE                                                                                                                        DUBUQUE

 

   DATE       TX    TN     PP      SF    SD      |         DATE       TX    TN     PP      SF    SD        

      ----------   ----  ----  ------  -----  ----     |      ----------   ----  ----  ------  -----  ----       

      12/25/2016    56    34    0.28    0.0     0      |      12/25/2016    41    31    0.19    0.0     T

      12/25/2015    37    32    0.00    0.0     0      |      12/25/2015    32    27    0.00    0.0     T

      12/25/2014    50    33       T      T     0      |      12/25/2014    44    30       T      T     0

      12/25/2013    27    19       T    0.1     5      |      12/25/2013    22    10    0.06    1.2     7

      12/25/2012    25    14    0.00    0.0     3      |      12/25/2012    18     5    0.00    0.0     8

      12/25/2011    46    23    0.00    0.0     0      |      12/25/2011    43    23    0.00    0.0     0

      12/25/2010    29    23    0.01    0.1     9      |      12/25/2010    27    21    0.02    0.2    14

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/Climate_WHR_1225

Cedar Rapids got one last year on a technicality. We had 1" on the ground at 6am, which was the requirement. But that hardly counts lol.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow gfs was nuts. Freezing rain sleet and 8 inches of snow

[Niko]

Sunday system needs to be watched.

[jaster220]

I'll take a hard pass on ZR, which guarantees that portion will over-perform. I'd rather we got whiffed tbh

[jaster220]

Sunday system needs to be watched.

For what? Incoming fluff watch! GFS has nada. Isn't even a surface reflection on the other two. Tundra air will be too dry for LES even. 1-2" tops, book it my friend..

[Tom]

This pattern coming up is about as loaded as I've seen all season long...giddy up!  Latest 12z EPS snow mean (ratios are likely higher)..

 

 

 

[Niko]

For what? Incoming fluff watch! GFS has nada. Isn't even a surface reflection on the other two. Tundra air will be too dry for LES even. 1-2" tops, book it my friend..

I'll take the 1-2" and run and enjoy my "White Christmas".

 

FWIW: From NOAA:

 

For now, will continue to increase PoPs during this timeframe, as

despite there still being significant uncertainty, there is enough

of a trend in recent model runs coupled with better sampling of

Pacific-originated PV energy from the ECMWF to warrant high chance

PoPs for potential accumulating snow Sunday into early Monday. Will

mention this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as well.

 

It is still too early to hone in on potential snowfall accumulations

Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, if and when they happen. With the

Christmas holiday being one of the busiest travel seasons of the

year, all interests in, or traveling to, southeast Michigan should

continue to keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

[bud2380]

GFS continues to show a big nothing burger for Christmas Eve.

[bud2380]

Canadian still with snow for southern Iowa on Xmas eve. Around I80 on south. Especially south of 80 though.

[bud2380]

Gfs and Canadian now both showing snow on Christmas Day.

[Money]

Gfs and Canadian now both showing snow on Christmas Day.

Both saying what storm? For next week

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL CMC doesn't even barely have the storm now for next week. Went from 18 inches to nothing here. Crazy

[GDR]

Big dud on gfs here we go again!

[bud2380]

Gfs is much milder. Not a major cold outbreak. Definitely cooler and maybe even below normal but has overnight lows mainly in the teens in Iowa.

[Minny_Weather]

Well this is an irritating run to say the least.

[Minny_Weather]

Couldn't say it was unexpected. Models randomly making a storm pop up in one or two runs usually doesn't turn out well.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I wouldn't call it the end of this after one run. Some ensembles had no storm some had a big one, so its just probably going through possible options at first. 

[Money]

Gfs develops the storm a bit later

 

Precip exploding over NE/IA at hr 168

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Phew...GFS still has it

 

[hlcater]

System is definitely still there on the 00z GFS. Gotta keep in mind that it's gonna change evolution nearly every run at this range and counting your chickens before they hatch is pointless. Only thing that matters at this range is the consistency of some type of storm. All other variables like location and amounts don't matter yet.

[WBadgersW]

Its going to be a long couple days watching how this storm evolves. Could be a biggie, or disappear when we're 48 hours out, like usual.

[Money]

That’s one slow moving storm

 

Still around at hr 201 out in the Rockies with 6-10 already falling in most areas in the sub forum

[St Paul Storm]

A double barrel low on the GFS. Nice.