December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Snowlover76]

im starting to get excited 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow this would be insane lol 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2017121800/CGP/GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

[Snowlover76]

IWHI 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow this would be insane lol 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2017121800/CGP/GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

God I wish that was climatologically possible.

[Snowlover76]

God I wish that was climatologically possible.

same  

 

 

If its still there a week from now id be going ape right now 

[Minny_Weather]

If 00z GFS in the fantasy range came to life that would be a modern-day 1983-84 scenario when combined with the cold at Christmas.

[Snowlover76]

If 00z GFS in the fantasy range came to life that would be a modern-day 1983-84 scenario when combined with the cold at Christmas.

i didnt look at the cold, what was it? 

[Minny_Weather]

i didnt look at the cold, what was it? 

Actual low temps of -16 on the morning of the 31st. Wind chills into the -40s possible.

[Snowlover76]

Actual low temps of -16 on the morning of the 31st. Wind chills into the -40s possible.

sweet 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm feeling pretty confident at this point.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm feeling pretty confident at this point.

Of what?

[Snowlover76]

Of what?

OU beating Georgia 

[OKwx2k4]

OU beating Georgia

That and confident in getting snow both.

[james1976]

GFS with a clipper on Christmas day. Imagine those ratios with the bitter cold in place.

[westMJim]

There seems to be a big temperature gradient across the Grand Rapids metro area.  The official reading at the airport is now 37° with fog while here at my house it is now 34° with that fog. I took a step out and it feels and smells warm out side (the dew point is very high 36° at he airport and 33° here at my house) Still looking at a good amount of snow melt this week.  Lake snows do not do good with warm temperatures and high dew points.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today December 18^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

The average H/L for Grand Rapids 34/23°

The record high is 55° set in 1926 the coldest maximum is 11° set in 1901

The record low is -5° set in 1926 and the warmest minimum is 39° set in 1939

The most precip is 1.03” in 2002

The most snow fall is 4.0” in 1951

The most on the ground is 13” in 1970

Last year the H/L was 21/12° there was 1.5” of snow fall and 8” on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

30.7* on my balcony. Everything is so frost covered it looks like a thin layer of snow. should have 3 (possibly 4) straight 50s days then Winter arrives.

[Tom]

00z Euro keeping hopes alive for a White Christmas in Chitown...KC region is also looking better....

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121800/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_192.png

[Niko]

Cloudy w a balmy 36F. 

[Minny_Weather]

Oof. GFS fantasy runs are bringing the Western ridge and NW flow back in here. Not so much of a fantasy.

 

The only difference is now we will have cold air to play with instead of well above normal air.

[FV-Mike]

​I am Liking Izzi's morning Disco (LOT)

 

forecast confidence decreases substantially at this point as
medium range models have been trending farther west with the axis
of the highly amplified long wave trough. The latest 00z
operational runs have continued this trend and that has
potentially big implications not only on temperatures over the
weekend but also precip chances. Unlike earlier runs which had
the heart of the arctic air mass spreading into the area in the
wake of the Thursday night/Friday morning`s shortwave, it now
holds the heart of the Arctic air farther west. While that would
keep temperatures more moderately cold this weekend, the bigger
implication is that it would keep us far closer to the baroclinic
zone and potential storm track. If we do end up close to the
baroclinic zone over the holiday weekend, that would bode well for
those dreaming of a white Christmas, as any shortwave energy
riding up the eastern side of the deep long wave trough could
easily lay down some accumulating snow. Important to keep in mind
that medium range models have yet to really lock into a solution
and until they do, further refinements to the forecast could be
needed.

[Niko]

Brutal cold coming. Maybe coldest of the season. Highs in the lower teens, if not colder are a real possibility.

[jaster220]

There seems to be a big temperature gradient across the Grand Rapids metro area.  The official reading at the airport is now 37° with fog while here at my house it is now 34° with that fog. I took a step out and it feels and smells warm out side (the dew point is very high 36° at he airport and 33° here at my house) Still looking at a good amount of snow melt this week.  Lake snows do not do good with warm temperatures and high dew points.

 

Case in point. It's been mild here in St. Joseph. Sat all day, then again since about 1 pm yesterday, and there's already a lot of green grass here at the office along the shoreline. Inland will hold a bit better ofc, but we've had rain as well this morning. With a couple more days like this forecast, I'm fully expecting to be looking at green grass and piles across most if not all of the 94 corridor by week's end.

[GDR]

After Christmas bring the warm nw flow please!!

[Tom]

Back to back winter storms on the table???  Today's 12z GFS/GGEM are hinting at 2 potential cutters 1) The Winter Solstice Storm (extended)  2) Christmas Eve/Day

 

 

12z GFS...

 

 

 

 

 

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS loses the Christmas storm for here. Called it. When GFS showed a good storm for here on Christmas it was under insane high pressure, which seemed impossible for appreciable (or any) precip to form.

[NEJeremy]

After Christmas bring the warm nw flow please!!

Yeah GFS shows going back to NW flow pretty quickly after Christmas. Of course, it's not always warm flow here though, depends what side of the trough we're on.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah GFS shows going back to NW flow pretty quickly after Christmas. Of course, it's not always warm flow here though, depends what side of the trough we're on.

Yeah I don't know why someone would actually want NW flow immediately after this cold blast as we will still have below normal air. NW flow will just make for crazy wind chills in this scenario.

[Tom]

I don't foresee a NW Flow pattern evolving this month, just don't see it happening. Systems will be coming out of the West/SW in typical La Nina fashion with big time HP's funneling down from Canada.

[Snowlover76]

This is why i don't get excited. Oh well.

[Tom]

12z EPS members looking more interesting for another "cutter" Christmas Eve/Day.  Exact track isn't much of a worry at this point but I'm seeing more members showing a swath of snow from the TX/OK region up towards the S MW/Lower Lakes/OV.

[jaster220]

12z EPS members looking more interesting for another "cutter" Christmas Eve/Day.  Exact track isn't much of a worry at this point but I'm seeing more members showing a swath of snow from the TX/OK region up towards the S MW/Lower Lakes/OV.

 

Can we hold you and the EPS to that Santa??   

[Snowlover76]

I'm assuming nothing here?

[Tom]

I'm assuming nothing here?

There are numerous members showing at least a couple inches for NE/IA/KS.  Often times, in this type of set up, models at this range struggle where to predict the gradient pattern.  On top of that, there could be surprise waves that break out which were not predicted 5+ days out.  Don't loose hope bud.  It's not like there aren't opportunities.

[Snowlover76]

There are numerous members showing at least a couple inches for NE/IA/KS.  Often times, in this type of set up, models at this range struggle where to predict the gradient pattern.  On top of that, there could be surprise waves that break out which were not predicted 5+ days out.  Don't loose hope bud.  It's not like there aren't opportunities.

meh, ive already given up.  I was hopeful last night but screw that now.  

[gosaints]

meh, ive already given up.  I was hopeful last night but screw that now.  

Why post then?

[Snowlover76]

cant deny the latest trends for Nebraska have gotten way way way more dismal.  The SE ridge is gone and its gonna go back to what December mostly was. which was a total blowtorch with one or two cold days mixed in.  But hey maybe instead of traces of snow, in January we will break the half inch mark!!!!

 

 

 

I just cant wait for Spring to get here since this winter has been nothing more than one cruel joke after another.  The Christmas storm is gone and now the cold aroudn Christmas is fading as well as the ******* East Coast looks to cash in yet again on our dime. 

[Snowlover76]

Why post then?

because someone has to counter the sunshine pumpers who seem to think that this awful pattern of warmth and no snow is suddenly gonna change. 

[gosaints]

because someone has to counter the sunshine pumpers who seem to think that this awful pattern of warmth and no snow is suddenly gonna change. 

ha ha fair enough....

[Snowlover76]

ha ha fair enough....

Just look at next weeks cold shot around Christmas,  Its been trending warmer and shorter in duration, weve seen this once in December already.  The east coast looked to finally get a nice SE ridge and now they are gonna get yet another storm parade.