December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

The Euro is also quite similar to the CMC at hour 96 -- looks like mainly a NE hit. ** edit ** it swings the snowfall straight to the  E when it appears it would dive S .  Euro,CMC and UK MET also show this. It's about 2" for many reading this. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO has the storm system for mid next week still even has 3-4 inches for us in Omaha on Sunday morning with a clipper.

 

Euro is further east and weaker with mid next weeks system but still manages to drop a few inches here. Really hits the northeast. Overall seems like we have a system on our hands folks.

[Stormgeek]

EURO has the storm system for mid next week still even has 3-4 inches for us in Omaha on Sunday morning with a clipper.

 

Euro is further east with mid next weeks system but still manages to drop a few inches here. Really hits the northeast. Overall seems like we have a system on our hands folks.

Can I be "that guy" and say we thought the same thing with this flurry storm we are about to get? The burn is so fresh that I can't help but think this. That is, of course, unless this system is somehow different, which it very well could be. Have not analyzed enough to tell at this juncture.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Can I be "that guy" and say we thought the same thing with this flurry storm we are about to get? The burn is so fresh that I can't help but think this. That is, of course, unless this system is somehow different, which it very well could be. Have not analyzed enough to tell at this juncture.

I can tell you no ones more disappointed then me here. My eyes are set first on the possible clipper on christmas eve because of great snow ratios. Might be a white christmas just in time if it all works out.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro can't be right.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro can't be right.

What part

[bud2380]

How dare the Euro bring back snow on Christmas Eve. Stop trying to get my hopes up. GFS shows nothing for the same time frame.

[Tom]

How dare the Euro bring back snow on Christmas Eve. Stop trying to get my hopes up. GFS shows nothing for the same time frame.

00z Euro Control also showing this Christmas Miracle...

[Tom]

12z EPS mean has turned a lot snowier out in NE/IA/KS for the mid next week storm system.  Could be the first bowling ball of the season??

 

That setup, as displayed on the GFS verbatim, screams big dog to me. 1055mb high pressure decending out of canada and interacting with storm system ongoing over the midwest. Would form quite the temp/wind gradient that a storm could feed on.

Almost has that Banana HP look to it with very cold temps, high ratios snows, could be a great set up going forward for a lot of members.  Both GEFS/EPS looking interesting for a widespread snowfall potential.

[Tom]

Looking out into the opening week of 2018, I'm beginning to wonder if the arctic outbreak around Christmas will be rivaled by an even more impressive push of the "Nanook from the North".  00z GEFS have been illustrating a cross polar flow and a tell- tale sign of an Arctic discharge out of Siberia.  Not only that, but both EPS/GEFS are leaning towards more blocking across the high latitudes which fits the correlation I tried pointing out that transpires near Siberia/Sea of Oks

 

 

 

 

 

 

The pattern near the Sea of Okhotsk/Siberia shifts from a troughy look around Christmas towards a ridge/blocking pattern.  This pattern looks to lock in for a while which suggests that this anticipated colder than normal regime to have some legs.  Not only is the cold suggested to have some staying power, but the 500mb flow across N.A. and an active southern jet, will produce opportunities of storm systems to track as we enter an active period IMO.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

The CMC and GFS are really ramping things up here mid-late next week. 

 

GFS

 

 

CMC

 

 

 

Lol this is beautiful brings tears to my eyes

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122000/204/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

EURO has the storm system for mid next week still even has 3-4 inches for us in Omaha on Sunday morning with a clipper.

 

Euro is further east and weaker with mid next weeks system but still manages to drop a few inches here. Really hits the northeast. Overall seems like we have a system on our hands folks.

 

 

Can I be "that guy" and say we thought the same thing with this flurry storm we are about to get? The burn is so fresh that I can't help but think this. That is, of course, unless this system is somehow different, which it very well could be. Have not analyzed enough to tell at this juncture.

 

12z EPS mean has turned a lot snowier out in NE/IA/KS for the mid next week storm system.  Could be the first bowling ball of the season??

 

Almost has that Banana HP look to it with very cold temps, high ratios snows, could be a great set up going forward for a lot of members.  Both GEFS/EPS looking interesting for a widespread snowfall potential.

 

"Euro is further east and weaker with mid next weeks system but still manages to drop a few inches here." 

 

Already trending the wrong way, eh? Not what good storms do, and not what you want to see! Don't want to pile on the pain out there, but after 2 or 3 systems that in model world showed tons of snow hitting E Neb, but later going "poof", I'm really curious to see what way this one finds to soil the bed. Buy anything beyond 48 hrs at your own major risk! Then at h48, go in 50% Save your sanity out there - game rules in effect for the wise Jedi

[Niko]

Definitely colder outside w temps in the 20s. Back to reality as my highs yesterday reached the low 50s. Felt really nice. Looking outside my homeoffice window, I still see some snow otg, but not too much.

[Niko]

Brutal cold by early next week! Records are likely to be broken.

[westMJim]

Not sure how much if any snow we will have on Christmas morning.(officially for it be a white Christmas there has to be a 1″ snow cover at 7 AM) The chances of a white Christmas here is around 65% and that is what I now have around 65 to 75% of the ground covered is some kind of white and around 30% non snow covered.

[Tom]

Latest tweet per Judah Cohen regarding Cross Polar Flow potential in early January...this period has been in the back of mind as the coldest period before the pattern pulls back some Week 2 in January.

 

 

 

 

What am I watching very closely? GFS growing more confident of more poleward heat transport in early January. Resultant stretched #PolarVortex would likely support more cross polar flow and therefore #cold temperatures in eastern North America.

[westMJim]

Not sure about other parts of the country but here in Grand Rapids there have only been 2 times when there was no snow on the ground for December 24^th and there was a snow fall on Christmas Eve.  Here in Grand Rapids that has only happened in 1965 when a 6” event happened on Christmas Eve/morning and in 1995 when a 1.2” event happened on Christmas Eve. In 1964 Christmas started out with no snow on the ground but 1.5” fell during the day. All other white Christmases had snow on the ground before Christmas Eve. The chances for a white Christmas here in Grand Rapids is just over 70% here is a list of Michigan cities and their chances.

Marquette - 100%
Sault Saint Marie - 100%
Pellston - 89%
Traverse City - 87%
Alpena - 83%
Houghton Lake - 82%
Grand Rapids - 73%
Lansing - 73%
Muskegon - 70%
Flint - 63%
Saginaw/Bay City/Midland - 61%
Detroit - 50%

[jaster220]

Not sure about other parts of the country but here in Grand Rapids there have only been 2 times when there was no snow on the ground for December 24^th and there was a snow fall on Christmas Eve.  Here in Grand Rapids that has only happened in 1965 when a 6” event happened on Christmas Eve/morning and in 1995 when a 1.2” event happened on Christmas Eve. In 1964 Christmas started out with no snow on the ground but 1.5” fell during the day. All other white Christmases had snow on the ground before Christmas Eve. The chances for a white Christmas here in Grand Rapids is just over 70% here is a list of Michigan cities and their chances.

Marquette - 100%

Sault Saint Marie - 100%

Pellston - 89%

Traverse City - 87%

Alpena - 83%

Houghton Lake - 82%

Grand Rapids - 73%

Lansing - 73%

Muskegon - 70%

Flint - 63%

Saginaw/Bay City/Midland - 61%

Detroit - 50%

 

A little surprised any place can be at 100% since I remember hearing news that Christmas of '94 was the first brown one for the Soo in like 48 yrs. Not even sure MQT had snow that Christmas. I was one who took the week off for snowmobiling holiday, and there was none to be had in all of Michigan until sometime between Christmas and NY's. It finally snowed in TC the evening before I had to get back to work..

[westMJim]

A little surprised any place can be at 100% since I remember hearing news that Christmas of '94 was the first brown one for the Soo in like 48 yrs. Not even sure MQT had snow that Christmas. I was one who took the week off for snowmobiling holiday, and there was none to be had in all of Michigan until sometime between Christmas and NY's. It finally snowed in TC the evening before I  to get back to wor

Those are not my numbers they are from Mlive (for what it is worth) anyway in taking a closer look at the Sault going back to 1932 (that is as far as their snow depth record go) there have been 3 Christmases where less than 1 inch of snow was on the ground 1952, 2006 and 2015 in 1952 and 2006 it snowed on Christmas day in 2015 it did not. So, 2015 was a brown Christmas at the Soo.  Over in Marquette going back to 1948 (that is as far as their daily snow depth records go) they have no years with 0 snow on the ground but do have 3 Christmases with a Trace they are 1994, 2006 and 2015 it snowed on Christmas day in 1994 and 2006 but it did not in 2015 so that must have been a brown Christmas there but they might have had snow piles left. So yes it is not 100% at either location but in the upper 90% range.

[bud2380]

Canadian model also showing a bit of snow on Xmas Eve.  The GFS still has nada.  I'm gonna hold out hope, even if it's not enough to get us to the 1" threshold.  Even a 1/2" on Xmas Eve would be scenic at least.  

[Tom]

12z GGEM taking almost an exact track as the Nov 11th/12th slow moving bowling ball system that produced a defo band signature over IA/N IL.  I remember that system like it was yesterday.  Canadian snow maps are going to be eye candy!  

 

 

Edit: For the 27th-28th system...prob 15:-20:1 snow ratios with such cold air around...

 

[james1976]

12z GGEM taking almost an exact track as the Nov 11th/12th slow moving bowling ball system that produced a defo band signature over IA/N IL. I remember that system like it was yesterday. Canadian snow maps are going to be eye candy!

For Christmas eve/day?

[Tom]

The post Christmas day system is getting within the Day 5-6 range and certainly becoming clearer that we may have a decent chance of a widespread snow producer.  

 

For Christmas eve/day?

Post Christmas...

[Tom]

12z GFS agreeing with an I-80 special....impressive run on going...

[Tony]

Nice over-running snows showing up on the models for next week.

[Jaycee]

12z GFS agreeing with an I-80 special....impressive run on going...

kind of goofs on OMA/LNK but its 168 hrs so ayy ill take it! It jacks up Northern Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois real good. Straight up blizzard boys. Leggo

[Niko]

Sunny and crisp out there. Temp @ 28F. Feels good to have sunshine for a change.

[Tom]

First eye candy run of the season per 12z GFS...

[james1976]

The post Christmas day system is getting within the Day 5-6 range and certainly becoming clearer that we may have a decent chance of a widespread snow producer.

 

Post Christmas...

Ahhh.....someone mentioned a clipper for 24th/25th in a previous post so i was thinking that. Hard to keep track with all the systems.

[james1976]

Dear God those are nice snow maps. The good thing is we are getting within a week. Might be on to something here....

[bud2380]

The GFS shows snow for about 36 straight hours from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for E Iowa.  While I don't buy that at all, it sure would be sweet if it came true.  

[Tom]

The GFS shows snow for about 36 straight hours from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for E Iowa.  While I don't buy that at all, it sure would be sweet if it came true.  

With a neutral AO and a Banana HP to the north, this has the necessary ingredients to deliver a slow mover.  You can also look back in the LRC's previous cycle and it did the same thing.  TBH, I'm pretty confident, even this far out, it will be a slow mover.

[jaster220]

First eye candy run of the season per 12z GFS...

 

Bumps north at game time...      

[jaster220]

With a neutral AO and a Banana HP to the north, this has the necessary ingredients to deliver a slow mover.  You can also look back in the LRC's previous cycle and it did the same thing.  TBH, I'm pretty confident, even this far out, it will be a slow mover.

 

that's key right there!

[Tom]

Bumps north at game time...      

Don't be greedy...I'd take half that and run!  This would be an ideal Lehs set up for WI/IL posters with cold 850's around.

[james1976]

Thats a few GFS runs in a row now that show a storm parade starting next week into first week of January.

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017122012&fh=234&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[jaster220]

Don't be greedy...I'd take half that and run!  This would be an ideal Lehs set up for WI/IL posters with cold 850's around.

 

Not being, but those emoji's would represent that if it were to happen. See my other post as to why I think it could go the other direction. GHD-2 got mby with similar colors/amnts..

 

early GFS hint at 156 hrs

 

 

Closer in..

 

[jaster220]

Don't be greedy...I'd take half that and run!  This would be an ideal Lehs set up for WI/IL posters with cold 850's around.

 

 

Thats a few GFS runs in a row now that show a storm parade starting next week into first week of January.

 

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017122012&fh=234&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Chuck it! Shows less than 2 foot for mby..   

 

Snowlover stepped out and asked me to sub for him..what flavor is your Koolaid fellas??

[Niko]

We need to get that inch to say we have a "White Christmas". Come on MA Nature...provide your goods.