umadbro Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rob still counts down the model runs we're already aware of. Keep it up Rob! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 00z GEM ensembles show 850s dip nicely around mid-month with a nice little cluster of -8 to -10c near the 22nd.December 20th - 23rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro hour 192.... hmmm Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some food for thought next winter. 1. It's an 8-9 winter (they are almost always great)2. Good chance for cold ENSO3. Good chance for plus QBO4. We will be in a deep solar minimum5. Very good chance of a major volcanic eruption playing into things If all of these happen the chances are very high for a great one. I think there's a decent chance of neutral ENSO as this weak Nina breaks down. Remains to be seen whether it's slightly negative or slightly positive. Point 1 is mere superstition and Point 5 is extremely speculative at this point, and there's generally a 12-18 month lag for volcanic cooling. Remember, if 2017-18 does turn out as good as you think it will, we'll be operating on borrowed time by next winter. Three straight regionally good winters is a pretty tall order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Day 10 swing and a misshttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Pattern progression overall is promising though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 You know the weather is shitty when we have this much analysis on hour 384 model runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Day 10 swing and a misshttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/240/500h_anom.na.png It looks better on Tropical Tidbits. If you run the loop... the 00Z ECMWF looks like its heading in a great direction at day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 It looks better on Tropical Tidbits. If you run the loop... the 00Z ECMWF looks like its heading in a great direction at day 10. Oh yeah the pattern progression is very good. Matter of time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Oh yeah the pattern progression is very good. Matter of time You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snowing at the Alamo! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Currently sitting at 29. Eugene down to 26 on the hour. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snowing at the Alamo! One of my college buddies works at UTSA, was pretty stoked about the snow chances. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. That would be a walk-off ultimate grand slam in the bottom of the 9th. Down 3, win it with a GS. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 A PDX area met who posts here occasionally, posted on FB today that he sees decent potential in the Dec 25 - Jan 10 period. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 One of my college buddies works at UTSA, was pretty stoked about the snow chances. UTSA just sent me jersey #201 of 351 for my collection to raise awareness for epilepsy through college hoops. Good people there. Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 UTSA just sent me jersey #201 of 351 for my collection to raise awareness for epilepsy through college hoops. Good people there. Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there. That's pretty cool. The Roadrunners or something like that I think? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 That's pretty cool. The Roadrunners or something like that I think? Yup, in Conference USA. Just got the Rice Owls from Houston as well. I post when I get the jerseys on twitter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snowing at the Alamo!We better get blasted 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snow and palm trees just don't mix. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. Looks like there's pretty broad consensus that it will evolve from a pattern with a low likelihood of producing a blast to one of our class pre-blast patterns. It could still fall apart, but the timing of this pattern progression couldn't be much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there.Hopefully someone remembers. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hopefully someone remembers. See what you did there....Never forget! At least that ******* Santa Ana got his! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snow and palm trees just don't mix. Sure they do, you just need more snow. This is how my parent's palm looked in 2008: This was earlier in the week: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snow and palm trees just don't mix.A Mexican restaurant in North Bend has palm trees in front of the building... I see snow on palm trees here every winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sure they do, you just need more snow. This is how my parent's palm looked in 2008: This was earlier in the week: I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 SEA might finally go below freezing. Dropped from 39 to 34 in the last hour with no wind at all now. 42 here and I can hear the wind from inside the house. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hardy palms are planted everywhere in Switzerland. I hate them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. There are palms in Bulgaria that supposedly have survived -17F, far hardier than Tim's roses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 The fact you guys can grow palm trees up there never ceases to amaze me. We can't grow them at all, and our yearly average temperature is warmer than yours. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Socked in with fog all day here. Only a high of 37F. Currently just below 32FThe fog was limited to below 100ft and mostly near the water here. It was 28F with freezing fog in Duncan this evening. Clear skies and 30 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. It killed a few. Most have rebounded nicely. There are some in my neighborhood that I observe from year to year. They are reasonably healthy at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 New snowblower has arrived. Sorry guys... stick a fork in this winter. Nice. I’ve had one for years. (Toro). Works great on our wet snow, but best get it before it rains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Pretty impressive fog bank over the Strait of Georgia today. It's still clear here but the air is saturated at the surface. Everything is covered with dew, so much so that my rain guage actually recorded "precipitation". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Yeah...I saw that the city put down de-icer in Downtown Portland the night before last when it got down to what, 35?? Just a wee bit on edge.They put down de icer around here pretty much every time temps drop near freezing. Helps with black ice prevention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 There are palms in Bulgaria that supposedly have survived -17F, far hardier than Tim's roses. When it hit -28 in February 2011 out in Bartlesville, OK where I used to live, it killed the palms at the local gas station... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z EPS. Promising looking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 25 degrees already. Clear skies and no freezing fog at my location, but the airport is reporting it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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