Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I was looking at the daily numbers for the periods the cold events actually happened. Not monthly numbers.We that’s not very helpful IMO. The atmospheric dynamics responsible for these events are playing out several weeks before the Arctic blasts in question. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010900/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro is considerably deeper, further south than GFS with the approaching trough at day 7.Yup, and Ridge over Aleutians Day 8-9 more amplified. This run just might bring Jim back to the Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Check out the 850mb temp map on day 8. What a joke.I see a + 63*F anomaly in Alaska. Yikes. Way too much Southwest flow. The 24hr-averaged 2m temperature anomalies are well above average. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Day 10http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010900/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So have the Patriots... but you cheer for them every year anyways. That is mostly due to Tom Brady's handsome looks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’ve been saying all winter that +NAO would teleconnect to +PNA on the low frequency, because that’s what history says happens in warm pool dominated winters. So far that has held true, even more-so than I thought it would. If the PNA does go negative, I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that the NAO will, as well. I’d put it this way. In any year, a +NAO (especially a west-based +NAO coupled to the stratosphere) is detrimental to Arctic chances in the PNW. However, it can be overcome more easily in some years relative to other years. Rare to get a “perfect” pattern, so that’s never necessary, but progressive patterns lacking amplification are usually the culprit for failure west of the Cascades, and it’s easier to slow the streamflow when you have blocks both upstream and downstream. We that’s not very helpful IMO. The atmospheric dynamics responsible for these events are playing out several weeks before the Arctic blasts in question. Look at what you said above. Sure sounds like you're talking about +NAO/-NAO occurring during the actual patterns in question. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Look at what you said above. Sure sounds like you're talking about +NAO/-NAO occurring during the actual patterns in question.Huh? How so? I’m speaking broadly about the state of the boreal winter NAO and how it may affect the NPAC wavetrain (and by consequence, Arctic opportunities in the PNW). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Day 10http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010900/240/500h_anom.na.png The good news is that models are generally wanting to start kicking the Aleutian low out by day 8 and moving in a ridge in that area. The Euro also starts moving a big chunk of cold air westward across Canada at the end, as the blocking configuration becomes more favorable to the north. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Huh? How so? I’m speaking broadly about the state of the boreal winter NAO and how it may affect the NPAC wavetrain (and by consequence, Arctic opportunities in the PNW). You said "if the PNA goes negative, I bet the NAO will too". Or did you mean the NAO would too, but several weeks later? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 The connection to the tropics is pretty fantastic in regards to this pattern swing. I might even have to start a thread about it. We’ll have the intraseasonal/MJO forcing in La Niña mode for another ~ 3 weeks, so this window is limited to some extent. Still, there’s some potential if blocking is sufficient going forward (never a given). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 The connection to the tropics is pretty fantastic in regards to this pattern swing. I might even have to start a thread about it. We’ll have the intraseasonal/MJO forcing in La Niña mode for another ~ 3 weeks, so there’s some potential during this period if blocking is sufficient. So you've no longer written off January? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks exactly like you'd expect with the pattern at that point. Below normal 850s for much of OR/northern CA, warmer to the north.Tim is just being Tim 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 You said "if the PNA goes negative, I bet the NAO will too". Or did you mean the NAO would too, but several weeks later?I’m referring to mean NAO/PNA states on a multiweek resolution. It’s not (necessarily) an immediate/short term resonance since it takes some time wavetrain changes to communicate spatially. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So you've no longer written off January? I never wrote off January. Just the 8-10 days with the extended jet/+PNA. It’s threading the needle, though. Race against the clock before tropical forcing leaves its Niña state again at the end of the month. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’m referring to mean NAO/PNA states on a multiweek resolution. It’s not (necessarily) an immediate/short term resonance since it takes some time wavetrain changes to communicate spatially. Ok. I guess as long as we agree that +NAO occurring does not prevent the PNW from getting cold while it is occurring. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Ok. I guess as long as we agree that +NAO occurring does not prevent the PNW from getting cold while it is occurring. It doesn’t prevent the PNW from getting cold, period. It just makes it more difficult to score Arctic blasts, especially in -QBO/Niña and +QBO/Niño. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well, I have given up on an Arctic blast this month in the PNW. I haven’t given up on February yet. There’s some potential there, IMO, but it’s threading the needle. I never wrote off January. Just the 8-10 days with the extended jet/+PNA. It’s threading the needle, though. Race against the clock before tropical forcing leaves its Niña state again at the end of the month. Ok, Phil. You say a lot of things...hard to keep track of, but not impossible. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Ok, Phil. You say a lot of things...hard to keep track of, but not impossible.I have given up on an Arctic blast this month. I haven’t given up on lowland snowfall, or “written off” the month. I clarified that later on, FWIW. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Though in hindsight, I can definitely see how that could be confusing. Jesse’s “Phil contradicts himself” comment makes more sense now. I’ll try to add edits to my posts (or quote them) going forward, instead of making new posts later that could get mixed up in the thick of things. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Day 11-15 Day 15 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Night shift! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Best GFS run in a while. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 And the ensembles are way worse... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 33* and rain ontop of 10” of snow at my house. Glorious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 33* and rain ontop of 10” of snow at my house. Glorious.You have little to complain about. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Drippy out there! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 In weather related news the GFS pumps more cold into the Eastern 2/3rds in the long range, while meandering split/cutoff lows pump mild SW flow into the PNW. Nina nightmares! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Drippy out there! 0.78" of rain overnight! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’m just going to pretend the 12Z GFS didn’t happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 In weather related news the GFS pumps more cold into the Eastern 2/3rds in the long range, while meandering split/cutoff lows pump mild SW flow into the PNW. Nina nightmares!Phil called it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Some bright news in a otherwise dark day both outside and in the modeling world...PNA still looks fantastic with the dip happening just after MLK Day! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’m just going to pretend the 12Z GFS didn’t happen.I think that’s what everyone else was doing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’m just going to pretend the 12Z GFS didn’t happen.Lol. Who knows what will happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Good amounts of mountain snow on the 12z. I will take that. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So basically we get 5-7 days of average to slightly below average temps and a normal amount of mountain snow. Then it is back to the show while the epic eastern winter continues...GREAT...Hoping this was an outlier, but the 06z Ensembles made me sick to my stomach. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 We're f*cked. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 We're f*cked.Not a dry one though so it wont be to bad. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Some bright news in a otherwise dark day both outside and in the modeling world...PNA still looks fantastic with the dip happening just after MLK Day! Yeah that looks good. Lets get that PNA down!It's been consistent with the 17th time frame. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z ensembles weren’t terrible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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