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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

clintbeed1993

By clintbeed1993
in East of the Rockies

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FarmerRick
FarmerRick

Too many thin-skinned people who get all butt-hurt and cant take a joke, and too many people messing with said people when a storm doesn't go exactly the way the models show a few days out.  It's like

Tabitha
Tabitha

I also want to go on the record and say that all those posts last night attacking me and wishing death on me were a disgrace.   I playfully joke around with people and make pleasant satirical comments

gosaints
gosaints

Oh OK.. Can't wait to read your complaints if that happens... If this storm does hit you then maybe you won't hit the board with same posts the next time you get missed.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

New nam even further south. Completely misses lincoln and Omaha

 

I wouldn't take the NAM that seriously...

 

For example, the 18z run today showed it dry where I am at...

 

Well, the NAM was totally proven wrong!

 

We got 3/10ths of an inch of snow today...

 

Lol

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't take the NAM that seriously...

 

For example, the 18z run today showed it dry where I am at...

 

Well, the NAM was totally proven wrong!

 

We got 3/10ths of an inch of snow today...

 

Lol

 

The 0z RGEM is not updating on one of the pages I find it on; but on the other, the animation site; it looked very good for SE Nebraska with some periods of heavy snow overnight.

 

In a contest between the RGEM and NAM inside 24 hours; I would take RGEM in a second. 

 

RGEM is the BEST model inside 24 hours.  By far.

 

With that RGEM animation I cite; it is sometimes difficult for me to sense exactly where Lincoln & Omaha are; as the map has no county boundaries or city markers and I sort of have to estimate with my eye.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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HRRR likes DSM. But you guys watch out for the southeast trend to continue, still 10 more hours to go!

The Southeast trend will continue and it'll miss DSM. It'll keep going Southeast and bring the Deep South another 10".

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Watching the locals news at 10pm was depressing. Randby's graphic has me in the dusting-1".

All my local news were depressing too. If we can somehow get more moisture up this way we could have a surprise. Chances of that happening not the best but you can always hope for a March 2007 surprise. I was going to UNL at the time; was one of the biggest surprises I have ever experienced as a weather geek......

 

In other news; nothing like being in the bullseye a day out only to watch the dry hole of death make it's way into your CWA.....

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 10.33.09 PM.png

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Bryan1117 Mentor

Bryan1117

Posted
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Watching the locals news at 10pm was depressing. Randby's graphic has me in the dusting-1".

It's time to move on... I had a bad feeling about this one from the beginning and didn't want to get involved posting about it until things became more clear on the models (which surprise, never happened). 

 

This "system" is not that impressive anyway outside of the cold air coming in, so to me it's no big deal that it is missing us... it's not like this was going to drop a foot of snow (at least in this area) on anyone in the first place. Let's put this bad boy to bed, be happy with our dusting to 1" of snow and move on to the next "tease" from Mother Nature. The past few Winters haven't given myself much hope that things will change in the short term at least.

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

Posted
Posted

I legit feel sorry for all you guys that have followed this for days.....only to get squat. That sucks! I havent been able to join the party much due to some 'life' situations going on over here. But im trying to catch up and see that i may be in the game for some real winter weather.

Definitely a thread the needle event.

Like myself and LNK_Weather noted earlier....there are definitely springtime elements with this compact little storm.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
Posted

Remember how I said this is the type of thing to nowcast? This thing is setting up 100% differently from what every model (besides Euro to an extent) had it. I knew I was skeptical of the random slot, rain is developing SW of Lincoln and we basically have a training band of light rain. Band of snow stretches from Tribune, KS to the Dakotas. There's still some light left. Don't get your hopes up too much obviously.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Posted

Maybe we're not meant to know?

 

They are much better than they once were; especially with temperature...but precip is still a big problem; the main reason being related to what you say; all the processes that sort of drive the weather are not entirely understood by the people who develop the models. 

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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It is really quite amazing; how a half century after they put a man on the moon; they still cannot develop a sufficiently adequate numerical weather model to get the forecast right beyond a couple of days...

That wouldn't make it dramatic enough.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

That wouldn't make it dramatic enough.

 

The only problem being; the *bad* surprises outnumber the *good* surprises about 20:1...if it were the other way around, I might agree with you.

 

Of course if you loathe the snow; those numbers would be reversed.

 

Perspective is very important...

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

noticed the HRRR has ticked a county or two north in the last run. 

 

also..this has jumped quite a bit north

 

 

 

HRDPS is RGEM-LAM...it is just a mesoscale version of RGEM.

 

But it is the best short range model there is; as I wrote somewhere in time...

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