February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

Wow there are a few bombs in the 12z GEFS. A few sub 985s and a 979 in W WI.

[Tom]

GoSaints will be coming back in good timing if the storm slows down a bit. Just as the pattern turns snowy.

[Money]

Euro coming in stronger from previous runs

 

1010 in Southern Kansas at 96

 

Gfs is in the same location but 4 mb stronger

[westMJim]

Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 2/19//2018

 

Marquette: 106.0"

Sault Ste. Marie: 85.5"

Grand Rapids: 66.8"

Duluth 53.3"

Detroit: 52.7"

International Falls: 42.5"

Milwaukee: 32.7"

Rochester MN: 32.3"

Rapid City: 32.0"

Minneapolis: 31.5"

Chicago O'Hare: 30.3"

Madison WI: 27.5"

Norfolk NE: 25.8"

Green Bay: 24.4"

Sioux Falls SD: 23.9"

Des Moines: 22.5"

Waterloo IA: 21.8"

Fargo: 19.0"

Bismarck: 17.3"

Mason City IA: 16.4"

Pierre SD: 16.3"

Lincoln: 15.5"

Omaha: 12.9"

Topeka: 7.2"

Springfield IL: 7.0"

St Louis: 5.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.4"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 0.4"

Oklahoma City: 0.1"

Here are some total snow fall amounts from some other locations

 

Erie PA   155.2”  (120.9” fell in December)

Rochester NY   85.7”

Buffalo  83.2”

Cleveland 36.9”

Albany   35.0”

Boston  34.8”

New York City Central park   23.8”

Indianapolis    9.0”

Washington DC   3.3” 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro with 5" here for Saturday's wave.

[Money]

Euro with 5" here for Saturday's wave.

How does it look in IA/WI?

[Minny_Weather]

How does it look in IA/WI?

Rain/snow line looks to be roughly along a line from Kansas City-Ottumwa-Dubuque-Your place. That line ain't messin' around, it basically becomes rain at 32 degrees. No wetbulbing down.

[CentralNebWeather]

Always hard to see on weather.us images, but it appears that Central and Southern Nebraska are hit hard from the 12Z Euro run.  I am talking about the Saturday storm to not confuse anyone.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa, then refocus the snow well nw in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_72.png

Could you post the Euro map of the Saturday snow?  Thanks

[Money]

12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_72.png

Image for Saturday’s system plz?

[Tom]

I think the high for the day has been reached with a current balmy temp of 65F! Record for the day is 70F which I believe was achieved just last year during the epic Feb torch!

[Hawkeye]

I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend... a nice big goose egg over southeast Iowa.  I have a feeling several good snowfalls will miss me nw over the next 2+ weeks.

 

[Madtown]

36 here

[Money]

I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

Solid 4-6 ish even without it wrapping up much

 

Not bad

[CentralNebWeather]

I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

Thanks a lot.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS basically on its own at this point with regards to a deep storm system for the weekend.

[FarmerRick]

No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?  

[Minny_Weather]

No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?  

May have to start one for at least Thursday's/Friday's soon. Des Moines & Minnesota posters may see something good out of those.

[james1976]

No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?

Any member can create a thread

[St Paul Storm]

No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?  

We were going to wait until later today I think, just to make sure these aren’t duds.

[St Paul Storm]

Nice hit here on the 18z NAM for Thursday. Models today showing a good trend.

[Tabitha]

The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

[Tom]

12z EPS looks good for SE NE/IA/MN into NW WI for the Thu/Fri wave. The weekend system looks solid from C NE into S MN and N WI. Very similar to the GEFS. If anyone wants to fire up threads go right ahead. I’m on the road today.

[Tom]

The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9. More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

That storm fits the LRC’s Oct 11th/12th storm system and would be quite the bowling ball to open up March like a Lion. The 12z Euro op had a similar size/strength system during this period.

[Tabitha]

That’s storm fits the LRC’s Oct 11th/12th storm system and would be quite the bowling ball to open up March like a Lion. The 12z Euro op had a similar size/strength system during this period.

 

 

I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

[St Paul Storm]

I can fire up the thread for the Thurs/Fri system after the 18z GFS.

[Money]

Let’s just not create a thread and discuss everything here

[Tom]

I got the sense there will be some pretty large storms in March, but first, let’s get through February. Pretty wild pattern taking shape with all the blocking around.

[westMJim]

New record high temperature set here at Grand Rapids.  The high for today is now 62° with a DP of 60° here at my house it is a little cooler iwth the high for today at 60°  Right now getting very heavy rain falling 

[jaster220]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022012&fh=120

 

Yes plz

 

'freal

 

Very nice storm and fits the pattern...folks NW of Chi are in for a nice snow storm...

 

Meanwhile back in SWMI, a newly hatched NWS headline has been rolled out by GRR - WInter Swamp Warnings are in effect and look to continue with this pattern! 

[Money]

FYI 18z icon gets the low down to 984 in eastern WI

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022018&fh=108

 

A lot like 12z gfs

[Money]

Gfs is gonna crush SPS this run

 

Way nw and stronger through 96

[St Paul Storm]

At hr 84 in the 18z GFS I’ll say this thing is gonna go NW. Looks like it’s gonna go deep.

 

Edit: ninja’d by Money

[Money]

At hr 84 in the 18z GFS I’ll say this thing is gonna go NW. Looks like it’s gonna go deep.

Too bad the gfs is a bad model and got smoked last week lol

[Money]

Jeez

 

978.5 just west of GB

 

NW WI gets smoked

[St Paul Storm]

Too bad the gfs is a bad model and got smoked last week lol

Good thing it’s no longer last week. New week, new scores. ; )

[Money]

Biggest change this run is the HP moved out faster and was farther north

 

Allowed it to strengthen quicker

[St Paul Storm]

That’s like a 150 mile jump NW with the heavy snow in one model run. Just terrible.

[Tabitha]

That’s like a 150 mile jump NW with the heavy snow in one model run. Just terrible.

 

 

The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.