February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

ICON hits us good. The ratios for this storm look awful for anyone who gets hit by it though, so I don't think it's worth getting worked up about yet.

[Minny_Weather]

Looking forward to Thursday. That should be an interesting day, and it'll all be happening in daylight too. Regardless of ptype, I feel sorry for the suckers who have to drive in the afternoon.

[jcwxguy]

I drive for my jobs, every day this week including Sunday

[Tabitha]

The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

 

18z GFS takes this one (the Big March 1st & 2nd one) from Denver to NW Minnesota; with rain practically into SE ND.

 

Not too many rain storms occur in ND in February.

 

Good model...lol.

 

*Actually; after double checking the animation; it is a very big snowstorm for ND and central SD...and such a track is not unprecedented...but not too common either.

 

With a big trough at higher levels developing in Idaho; its not out of the question that enough warm air could be drawn well north ahead of the storm...especially if what is called a "negative tilt" to the atmosphere develops...sort of a powerful upper low that practically cuts off; almost causing a regression of the normal westerly flow.  These are truly the greatest precipitation makers in the middle latitudes because of the blocking that is generated.

 

Truth be told; its not all that different from the ECMWF control run I previously cited...so maybe I should not be so quick to deride it.

[buzzman289]

Iowa low magnet in full force lol

[hlcater]

Maybe we can bag a 985 pressure reading??? Either suppression or a low cutting over Iowa. Rinse and repeat.

[Minny_Weather]

We've been getting flurries all day despite varying cloud cover. 19.9*F.

[westMJim]

Two records set today at Grand Rapids with the high of 62° that broke the old record for the date of 61° set in 1930 and now a new rain fall record for the date. Note the most rain in one day in February is 2.96” on February 21^st 1997 and that was a rain to snow event with 6” of snow on top of all that rain

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI

0534 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

 

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI...

 

 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.9 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.4 SET IN 1898.

[Tabitha]

It is 0 F at the Rapid City Airport; and most of the models don't have anything too extreme tonight.

 

However the ICON drops them down to -28 F by morning; and I absolutely agree with it.  Maybe not quite that far; but at least to -20 F.

[Money]

Maybe we can bag a 985 pressure reading??? Either suppression or a low cutting over Iowa. Rinse and repeat.

Can’t remember the last time there was a track from stl to chi

[hlcater]

Can’t remember the last time there was a track from stl to chi

Exactly. I’d feel differently if this wasn’t the preferred track of cutters over the past 4 years. We can’t even bag a STL to ORD low, let alone a strengthening one.

[Hawkeye]

A west or nw flow is the only way we can get snow here anymore.  A low coming out of the Rockies, cutting northeast, is now all but guaranteed to be rain here.  Perhaps once every 3-5 years a panhandle low dumps 6+ inches on this area.

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z GFS would be historic snowfall in Nebraska. Pretty good chance it doesn’t verify, but I think it shows the potential stormy pattern. As we get later in the year, there is always chances of precipitation type issues with storm tracks that would cut snowfall amounts.

[Tom]

Another record was set in Chicago:

 

Interestingly, the old record was during the very cold winter of '13-'14 which happened to have a record Feb 20th daily rainfall...

 

 

 

The record rainfall for February 20th was also set at O’Hare (Chicago’s official site) where 1.80-inch had been recorded by late afternoon and still raining, supplanting the old record 1.16-inches in 2014. 

[Tom]

I started a thread for the Thu/Fri disturbance...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1749-february-22nd-23rd-disturbance/

[Tom]

Finally, the potential weekend storm...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1750-february-24th-25th-potential-plainsgls-major-winter-storm/

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

I started a thread for the Thu/Fri disturbance...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1749-february-22nd-23rd-disturbance/

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

[Tom]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Oh no!  That's horrible...glad your alright though...cars are replaceable but I can only imagine how much it hurts to see a brand new ride totaled.

[St Paul Storm]

Oh no! That's horrible...glad your alright though...cars are replaceable but I can only imagine how much it hurts to see a brand new ride totaled.

Thanks man. A little shaken up and some bumps and bruises but I’m all good. Was on my way to pick up my 16 month old son. Just glad he didn’t have to live thru that.

[gabel23]

Thanks man. A little shaken up and some bumps and bruises but I’m all good. Was on my way to pick up my 16 month old son. Just glad he didn’t have to live thru that.

Glad your doing good, and glad to hear your boy wasn’t with you. Hopefully you get all covered with the insurance!

[jaster220]

Meanwhile back in SWMI, a newly hatched NWS headline has been rolled out by GRR - WInter Swamp Warnings are in effect and look to continue with this pattern! 

 

 Sure enough, got a txt from my daughter saying the back yards a flood puddle and came home to water in my basement! 3rd time inside a year and it's gettin old already. Getting the OH winter treatment the last two days. I'll say, don't know how anyone who loves snow could survive their winters! Even IA peeps. Just brutal 

[jaster220]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

 

Glad you're ok SPS! What an awful way to ruin an otherwise good day. Plus just the hassle, but like you said, things could've been worse. 12 yrs back, I was doing at least 55 on a state hwy and dude turns left right in front of me! No way to avoid creaming him so I figured I was a goner! Was an old used car from the 90's but the one single airbag for the driver actually worked. It was Christmas Eve but instead of spending the holiday in a hospital, I was able to gather with Fam thanks to the airbag technology. Thankfully I was alone as well so one was enough in my case. 

[Niko]

Looks like the rain has subsided a bit. Its so mild, it feels great. Temp @ 54F, but falling throughout the nite into the 30s.

[Tony]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Glad to hear you are ok. Rough day for sure

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks everyone. Rough day for sure but the car is replaceable. It would’ve been better if I had a weather factor to tie into the story. It was just cold and sunny at the time. Ha.

[Tabitha]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

 

It is good that you are all right.

 

Material objects can always be replaced; a life can never be replaced.

 

Just take it slow 'n easy.

[james1976]

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Whoa!!!! Not what I was expecting to read when i got in here!!

Glad you are ok. Dang! Obviously a terrible situation but the car is replaceable.

Sounds like you need a good storm to track.

[Money]

SPS crush job

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022100&fh=240&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Tom]

My goodness, there is going to be one hellova glacier as we head into March if the GEFS/EPS are right across the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's...you guys are in for an epic finish for winter.  00z EPS pretty much agrees with the GEFS that MN is in the heart of it.  Question, any of you in MN have an extra room???  LOL..j/k...but seriously, I think a historic stretch is forthcoming for those who are lucky in the path.

[Tom]

The parade of storm systems will continue as we flip the calendar into March and the next big ticket storm is starting to get picked up on the GEFS/EPS ensembles during the Feb 28th - March 2nd period which lines up quite well with the LRC once again.  With ample blocking over the top, this one has the slow "bowling ball" look to it as March will likely roar at the open.

 

 

 

 

[Tony]

Looking like more rain for us down the road unfortunately. We could have used this moisture back a month ago.

[Tom]

Looking like more rain for us down the road unfortunately. We could have used this moisture back a month ago.

One thing the models may be under playing is the strength of the blocking as they did with the strength of the -PNA/SE ridge in the extended. Both AO/NAO tank big time, esp the NAO which is as close to off the charts as it gets. I’m not saying we will get hit with the weekend storm, but the end of month system has my interest at this range and the opening of March.

[St Paul Storm]

My goodness, there is going to be one hellova glacier as we head into March if the GEFS/EPS are right across the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's...you guys are in for an epic finish for winter.  00z EPS pretty much agrees with the GEFS that MN is in the heart of it.  Question, any of you in MN have an extra room???  LOL..j/k...but seriously, I think a historic stretch is forthcoming for those who are lucky in the path.

Come on up Tom! Got an extra set of snowshoes as well. Would be epic hiking with those totals. Whoa.

[Tom]

Here's an interesting tweet I just read from a met which coincides to what I just posted above...

 

The tweet relates for Feb & Mar months:

 

 

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

[Tom]

This February is going to turn out to be one extreme month when you look back at all the weather events that have and will be taking shape.  My gut tells me March will be filled with the same.

[Tony]

Here's an interesting tweet I just read from a met which coincides to what I just posted above...

 

The tweet relates for Feb & Mar months:

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

East Coast folks will be hoping this comes to pass as this usually correlates well with at least 1 blizzard out that way.

[westMJim]

Two records were set here in Grand Rapids yesterday 

 

Record Report

248
SXUS73 KGRR 211417
RERGRR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
917 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

...DAILY RECORDS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20 2018...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI
ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1930.

A RECORD RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION OF 2.53 INCHES WAS SET AT GRAND
RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.40 INCHES
SET IN 1898.

[westMJim]

Two records were set here in Grand Rapids yesterday 

 

Record Report

248

SXUS73 KGRR 211417

RERGRR

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI

917 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

 

...DAILY RECORDS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20 2018...

 

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI

ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1930.

 

A RECORD RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION OF 2.53 INCHES WAS SET AT GRAND

RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.40 INCHES

SET IN 1898.

The total precipitation for this February at GRR is now 4.43" That is good for the 4th wettest February in Grand Rapids history.  1st place is 5.77" in 1898 but in looking at the dally reports for that month  I question that amount. (two snow events on back to back days with 1.40" water with 5 and 6" of snow) 2nd place is 1938 with 5.30" and in 3rd place in 1997 with 4.80" 

[Niko]

Cloudy and mild w m temps in the 40s. Clearing skies later in the day and turning a bit colder.

[Niko]

EC possibility for a major Winterstorm is not outta the question as NAO is forecasted to tank in March (1st week). March can be a cruel month for them.