February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

PDX spiking to 55 has been pretty heartbreaking. They might even tack on a few more degrees...

 

We're on the warm side of Arctic front.  These spikes are common with those.

[snow_wizard]

What a waste of cold

 

We don't even know how that one will play out yet.

[Jesse]

Don't stand by idle and let it happen. Resist! Air your frustrations on social media!!!

You’re welcome.

[FroYoBro]

PDX spiking to 55 has been pretty heartbreaking. They might even tack on a few more degrees...

I genuinely can't tell if you are serious or not. 

[Deweydog]

I genuinely can't tell if you are serious or not.

Today is warmer than expected. What goes up...

[Winterdog]

I genuinely can't tell if you are serious or not. 

Seriously?

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS for tomorrow morning doesn't look too bad for a lot of folks.

 

[Jesse]

Crazy looking radar out there. Maybe one of these light showers will land over PDX and push them over the 0.6” mark for the month to date!

 

[snow_wizard]

I will be interested to see how the ICON performs.  It shows thicknesses dropping well below 516 again at day 5.  Pretty serious sustained cold.

[Deweydog]

18z GFS for tomorrow morning doesn't look too bad for a lot of folks.

 

Most of the models seem to like the idea of some enhancement late tomorrow morning. Might be enough for some brief accumulations in the valley but they'd be pretty short-lived.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS for tomorrow morning doesn't look too bad for a lot of folks.

 

 

I think we'll do fine.  Another thing that has been catching my eye is the snowfall the WRF is picking up on the last couple of runs after the main event for the Central Puget Sound.  The 12z was more pronounced with it than the 0z.  Probably related to cyclonic flow on the back side of the ULL.  

[Front Ranger]

By the time the low slides south, there may not be enough moisture available. Looking at the current radar, I would not be surprised if tomorrow ends up being similar, only leading to a dusting or so of snow. Still, where the bands will setup will be difficult to pinpoint outside of watching the radar tomorrow. This Arctic boundary is not particularly impressive with the gradient being driven mainly by the high to the north and not a strong surface low. The best 700mb dynamics are to the east over eastern Washington. Things over western Washington look more orographically enhanced.  

 

Models have trended stronger with the surface low, though. Looks like a pretty decent gradient to me.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Most of the models seem to like the idea of some enhancement late tomorrow morning. Might be enough for some brief accumulations in the valley but they'd be pretty short-lived.

 

I'm hopeful that we'll do a bit better than the usual for these setups in terms of precip due to the low pretty much going right over us.  

Maybe 0-1 inch for most.

 

Hopefully this is an appetizer for a more substantial event mid week.

[snow_wizard]

Models have trended stronger with the surface low, though. Looks like a pretty decent gradient to me.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

 

Uh ya...We have north winds gusting to 60 in areas north of here.

[Jesse]

I genuinely can't tell if you are serious or not. 

 

Was sort of hoping for today to be a little more dynamic than it has been so far. But the pattern is young. I think I suddenly realized how much I have been craving a decent front, and the band of drizzle followed by clearing skies and warming temps this afternoon didn't really do it for me. Not the end of the world. 

 

I generally take the initial frontal system of a pattern change having some teeth as a good omen for what's to come. But that is probably mostly just superstition.

[snow_wizard]

It amazes me how going into an event that will set record lows and have lowland snow still evokes Debbie Downer posts.  Just blows my mind.

[Front Ranger]

I tried pasting an animated gif I created but could not get it to post.  It is created by going to tropical tidbits and the NW region for the ICON model. Go to 00Z Mon for the Snow total graphic. Create a trend GIF for the last 12 runs at that time.  Look at the consistency. You won't find that with the other models. Now it may be consistently wrong, but so far I've seen some potential for this model.  Meso models are really meant for convection and seem to over mix things. The UW WRF has some other issues. 

 

Worth noting, I think, that the ICON doesn't show lowland snow really beginning until around 12z tomorrow. And the best period for the Seattle/Tacoma area isn't until the afternoon/evening.

[snow_wizard]

Was sort of hoping for today to be a little more dynamic than it has been so far. But the pattern is young. I think I suddenly realized how much I have been craving a decent front, and the band of drizzle followed by clearing skies and warming temps this afternoon didn't really do it for me. Not the end of the world. 

 

We've had some crazy winds up here.  Downed trees and power outages in some places.

[snow_wizard]

Worth noting, I think, that the ICON doesn't show lowland snow really beginning until around 12z tomorrow. And the best period for the Seattle/Tacoma area isn't until the afternoon/evening.

 

It shows precip lasting longer which the WRF has been hinting at.  It appears there will be a couple of different forcing mechanisms as the event unfolds.

[Jesse]

[Farmboy]

Maple Valley and Covington are both mentioned in the 1-4" advisory for the EPSL.

...And Renton, Kent, Federal Way, and Auburn are all left out of the discussion you refer to. This dry slot has been alluded to in a lot of the models this past week. Hope the models were wrong.

[wxmet]

UW WRF showing a nice Pugent Sound Convergence setup tomorrow morning which is why totals are higher over the Central Pugent Sound than other models:

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/1j8f1k.png

[FroYoBro]

Was sort of hoping for today to be a little more dynamic than it has been so far. But the pattern is young. I think I suddenly realized how much I have been craving a decent front, and the band of drizzle followed by clearing skies and warming temps this afternoon didn't really do it for me. Not the end of the world. 

Tomorrow will be a lot more fun. 

[snow_wizard]

...And Renton, Kent, Federal Way, and Auburn are all left out of the discussion you refer to. This dry slot has been alluded to in a lot of the models this past week. Hope the models were wrong.

 

Dry slotting won't be an issue IMO.

[wxmet]

Models have trended stronger with the surface low, though. Looks like a pretty decent gradient to me.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

I don't consider 999mb to be particularly strong but may be enough to get the job done.

[Front Ranger]

Both coasts get to score simultaneously, lol. When was the last time that happened? (Hope this isn’t too OT).

 

Just a taste of the bliss that awaits you guys.

 

 

 

No accumulation yet at DCA, temps above freezing.

[Front Ranger]

Was sort of hoping for today to be a little more dynamic than it has been so far. But the pattern is young. I think I suddenly realized how much I have been craving a decent front, and the band of drizzle followed by clearing skies and warming temps this afternoon didn't really do it for me. Not the end of the world. 

 

I generally take the initial frontal system of a pattern change having some teeth as a good omen for what's to come. But that is probably mostly just superstition.

 

Well, it's sure been dynamic further north. So what does that mean?

[Jesse]

No accumulation yet at DCA, temps above freezing.

 

Fill!!!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

PDX spiking to 55 has been pretty heartbreaking. They might even tack on a few more degrees...

 

At least today wasn't part of the cold outbreak contest...

[Front Ranger]

Fill!!!!!!!

 

If you are insinuating that I'm trolling him, well done Sherlock. 

[Jesse]

If you are insinuating that I'm trolling him, well done Sherlock.

Envy is a powerful emotion.

[Deweydog]

It amazes me how going into an event that will set record lows and have lowland snow still evokes Debbie Downer posts. Just blows my mind.

Lots of horrible, horrible people here, Jim.

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

Was sort of hoping for today to be a little more dynamic than it has been so far. But the pattern is young. I think I suddenly realized how much I have been craving a decent front, and the band of drizzle followed by clearing skies and warming temps this afternoon didn't really do it for me. Not the end of the world. 

 

I generally take the initial frontal system of a pattern change having some teeth as a good omen for what's to come. But that is probably mostly just superstition.

 

 

Envy is a powerful emotion.

 

I feel like these posts go together quite well.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of horrible, horrible people here, Jim.

 

It just gets so predictable.

[Deweydog]

I'm hopeful that we'll do a bit better than the usual for these setups in terms of precip due to the low pretty much going right over us.

Maybe 0-1 inch for most.

 

Hopefully this is an appetizer for a more substantial event mid week.

I don't think the surface low track is all that important. At this point we're depending on overcoming what will be strong shadowing and mid levels that will be drying pretty rapidly through the afternoon.

[wxmet]

Good look on the GFS 18z tomorrow morning in the central Pugent Sound. Saturated from about 500mb to the surface (deep-layered moisture) with some lift in the DGZ. What you want to see for accumulating snow. 

 

[HighlandExperience]

...And Renton, Kent, Federal Way, and Auburn are all left out of the discussion you refer to. This dry slot has been alluded to in a lot of the models this past week. Hope the models were wrong.

WRF and euro looked fine for that area

[Deweydog]

It just gets so predictable.

Almost as predictable as a Puget Sound Flash Freeze.

[Phil]