February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Amazing that so many media outlets locally along with NWS calling for virtually nothing for the DT KSEA metro area and extreme eastern Kitsap peninsula but when you take into acct NW flow, it's not surprising.

 

I'm not at all confident that area won't get snow.

[snow_wizard]

NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. 

 

Doesn't matter IMHO.

[Jbolin]

Where is Steve Pool when we need him? Forecasting the BBQ Sandwich??

D**n Skippy!

[kokaneekidz]

Amazing that so many media outlets locally along with NWS calling for virtually nothing for the DT KSEA metro area and extreme eastern Kitsap peninsula but when you take into acct NW flow, it's not surprising.

Yeah I will laugh my a** off if a hard polar maritime/ continental polar boundary sets up over the Spacee  Needle and lets em have it to the tune of 7 inches!!!!

[Jbolin]

I'm not at all confident that area won't get snow.

Here's hoping, it was last February when we got 9.5" here and many locations around us got much less than that, perhaps on the order of 2-3" 

[kokaneekidz]

NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. 

These computer models could be playinng us for fools ???

[snow_wizard]

These computer models could be playinng us for fools ???

 

The NAM is terrible.  I never use it anymore.

[Jesse]

NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands.

I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

The latest GFS shows two more significant cold shots...one around day 5 ad the other around day 11.  850s drop to -9 on both.

[snow_wizard]

I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle.

 

You have to wonder.  The NAM isn't even worth mentioning IMO.  It's never right.  Even when it is you have no idea that will be the time it's right.

[wxmet]

I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle.

Not true. I like to look at all the data present. It wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle got nothing tomorrow or if a convergence band setup that delivered an inch or two. I’m siding with little to no accumulation unless the 00z models change their tune. I think the mid-week system is much more interesting.

[The Swamp]

NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. 

 

You are quickly becoming the new Tim of this forum.  Can you tell us when it's going to be 52 and raining again?

 

For days and days you been throwing cold water on the party.

 

At this point, let's just see what happens.

[snow_wizard]

While I don't think we should believe any one model run when it comes to snow amounts for tomorrow, the NAM is not nearly as bad as what you make it seem.

 

Maybe not, but we have a number of models that are better.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

You are quickly becoming the new Tim of this forum.  Can you tell us when it's going to be 52 and raining again?

 

For days and days you been throwing cold water on the party.

 

At this point, let's just see what happens.

He has a meteorology degree. I think his opinion is probably valid--even if not everyone agrees with him.

[Prairiedog]

Had a high of 50f with the strong southerlies earlier today at 1pm  Down to 45f now.  Surprised that NWS is thinking enough cold air comes in tonight already for a little hit and miss snow in the am.  I was thinking it wouldn't be until later tomorrow for the main push of cold air.  The thinking seems to be a little shortwave is bringing down some of the cooler air overnight, then the main push of cold air.  Honestly didn't see it being cold enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 40 up here.

[ShawniganLake]

NAM if anyone’s interested

[The Swamp]

He has a meteorology degree. I think his opinion is probably valid--even if not everyone agrees with him.

 

Absolutely, and his opinion has been consistent, as noted.

[Arctic Front]

NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.png

Yuck

[wxmet]

I did post earlier about the favorable dynamics on the WRF with the PGCZ. Maybe that got missed lol.

[MikeInEverett]

Of course, we’ve hit the last minute dry trend.

[Winterdog]

NAM if anyone’s interested

​Haha, now I'm in a no snow area where on the Euro I'm in an area of enhanced snow.  I'll be surprised either way I guess.

[Arctic Front]

On to the next event folks

[Jesse]

NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.png

Looking better down here.

[HighlandExperience]

NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.png

That shows nothing for moss man. Doubt that’s correct

[snow_wizard]

Of course, we’ve hit the last minute dry trend.

 

We'll do fine.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 40 here.  Things are advancing nicely.

[seattleweatherguy]

Down to 44 here maybe my forecast temp for Sunday might actually be right.

[Esquimalt]

I wouldn't worry about the NAM very much.  The HRRR, which runs every hour has been looking consistently good (except for a snow hole in what appears to be central king county).  The RGEM was pretty good.  It could be worse: we could be sitting there in 39 degree drizzle.  Right? 

[Esquimalt]

Some sort of convergence zone has formed over Victoria.  Hopefully it keeps up until later. 

[snow_wizard]

NAM if anyone’s interested8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.png

 

Every model has shown snow here....even this one.  I'm feeling pretty good.

[Esquimalt]

Does anyone here use the site timeanddate for weather?  I'm not sure how accurate it is...

[The Swamp]

Anyone pulling an all nighter to track this stuff?

[snow_wizard]

Anyone pulling an all nighter to track this stuff?

 

I'll be watching until 1 at least.

[snow_wizard]

Does anyone here use the site timeanddate for weather?  I'm not sure how accurate it is...

 

I never trust those kinds of sites.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z NAM looks tremendous! It trended towards the EURO and gives PDX Metro a snowstorm starting Tuesday night!

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the mid week thing has potential.  Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high!

[Geos]

That shows nothing for moss man. Doubt that’s correct

 

Yeah I'd say toss the NAM at this point. Doesn't seem realistic. 

 

Someone will get largely left out, but Mossman is probably the least likely too.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No doubt the mid week thing has potential. Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high!

You were spot on when you said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry! Looks like there's going to be numerous chances of snow this coming week for everybody!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I'd say toss the NAM at this point. Doesn't seem realistic. 

 

Someone will get largely left out, but Mossman is probably the least likely too.

 

I seriously wonder if the models will ever be good enough to accurately depict situations like this.  I think the Olympics make it nearly impossible.  A trajectory difference of just a couple of degrees can make the difference between no snow and several inches.  Insanely difficult here.