February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 43.

 

Nws calling for 4-9” in the foothills above 800’

[Deweydog]

I would have to search some posts but I don't think Tim has ever called Jim delicious.

I don't think Jim would taste that good. He strikes me as a sweater.

[TT-SEA]

A true Minnesotan

Yep!

[Front Ranger]

When you want everyone to be certain how normal you are that is usually a dead giveaway.

 

I'm just relieved he stopped by to let us know he's enjoying himself. I was a little concerned he'd be growing tired of Hawaii by now, and start longing for some winter weather in February.

[Deweydog]

Down to 53 at PDX.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think Jim would taste that good. He strikes me as a sweater.

 

I've tried really hard to avoid thinking about how members here taste. Thanks a lot.

[Deweydog]

I've tried really hard to avoid thinking about how members here taste. Thanks a lot.

Is it really that bad considering we talk so frequently about warm noses, wet bulbs, backdoor penetration and anal logs?

[Jesse]

I don't think Jim would taste that good. He strikes me as a sweater.

He always struck me as a scarf.

[Deweydog]

He always struck me as a scarf.

A must have for flash freezes!

[seattleweatherguy]

FXUS66 KSEW 180005

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

405 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...The low center which brought today`s active weather

will exit east this evening. A modified arctic cold front will

move southward through Western Washington late tonight and early

Sunday, bringing the possibility of lowland snow followed by

strong north winds. Dry conditions are expected from late Sunday

through Tuesday with cold temperatures remaining in place. Another

system could slide in from the northwest around next Wednesday,

with light snow possible. More systems are possible on Friday and

Saturday, with light precipitation and low snow levels.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Deepening 996 mb surface low is now over northeast

Washington and exiting east. Therefore, strong westerly wind over

the forecast area will ever so slowly start to ease over the next

few hours. Heavy snow over the Cascades will also ease, though a

Puget Sound Convergence Zone may keep Stevens Pass going strong

for a while longer. With today`s heavy snow and strong wind, an

Avalanche Warning is also in effect for a few more hours in the

Cascades.

 

In the wake of today`s low center, a a continental polar air mass

will quickly spread south through interior B.C. and come pouring

out of the Fraser later tonight. The BLI-CYWL gradient is forecast

to peak near -20 mb on Sunday morning, making this a strong

Fraser Outflow event. Strong north- northeast winds will ensue,

most notably near Bellingham, the San Juans, and around to

Admiralty Inlet. Other places will be breezy as well. The

windiness from the less common northerly direction will have

greater tree impacts than a similar south wind. A modified arctic

front will spread south and southwest through Western Washington

early Sunday morning, with localized frontal convergence and

orographic lift leading to some lowland snow accumulations. The

average forecast snowfall up and down the I-5 corridor will be

about 1 to 2 inches. However, all meso models show a distinct hole

in the snowfall pattern from Poulsbo over to Seattle, likely from

precip shadowing downwind of the Olympics in northwest flow

aloft. So that is why the Bremerton and Seattle forecast zones are

excluded from the Winter Weather Advisory over the lowlands. Some

local enhancement of snow is expected just away from the water

near Port Angeles due to north-northeast wind upsloping against

the north slope of the Olympics, so the forecast there is for 2-4

inches of snow.

 

The front will be followed by the coldest air mass of this winter.

A hard freeze is expected areawide on Sunday night, with Monday

night likely being the coldest night of the upcoming cold spell.

At least the cold will come with drier weather. The last showers

will taper off over the Cascades on Sunday night or Monday, with

dry weather expected Monday and Monday night.

 

The NAM and GFS keep Tuesday dry as well. The ECMWF tries to

develop a warm advection nose of precip over Western Washington on

Tue. Since only two of the GFS ensemble`s 20 members show precip

at HQM on Tuesday, have kept PoPs on the low side. If any precip

does occur on Tue, it would still be cold enough for snow, even at

the coast. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...A cool northwest flow pattern will continue from Wed

through Sat. A system diving down from the northwest on Wed could

very well spread light precip across Western Washington, with

light snowfall accumulations. A lull in precip is possible Thu.

 

More precip with more weak shortwaves on Fri and Sat. The 12z

ECMWF was colder than the 12z GFS, but the 18z GFS seems to be

coming around to a cooler solution. This would keep snow levels at

or below 1000 feet, a situation of the snow threat continuing on

higher lowland hills but less so at sea level. Haner

[Poulsbo Snowman]

FXUS66 KSEW 180005

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

405 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...The low center which brought today`s active weather

will exit east this evening. A modified arctic cold front will

move southward through Western Washington late tonight and early

Sunday, bringing the possibility of lowland snow followed by

strong north winds. Dry conditions are expected from late Sunday

through Tuesday with cold temperatures remaining in place. Another

system could slide in from the northwest around next Wednesday,

with light snow possible. More systems are possible on Friday and

Saturday, with light precipitation and low snow levels.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Deepening 996 mb surface low is now over northeast

Washington and exiting east. Therefore, strong westerly wind over

the forecast area will ever so slowly start to ease over the next

few hours. Heavy snow over the Cascades will also ease, though a

Puget Sound Convergence Zone may keep Stevens Pass going strong

for a while longer. With today`s heavy snow and strong wind, an

Avalanche Warning is also in effect for a few more hours in the

Cascades.

 

In the wake of today`s low center, a a continental polar air mass

will quickly spread south through interior B.C. and come pouring

out of the Fraser later tonight. The BLI-CYWL gradient is forecast

to peak near -20 mb on Sunday morning, making this a strong

Fraser Outflow event. Strong north- northeast winds will ensue,

most notably near Bellingham, the San Juans, and around to

Admiralty Inlet. Other places will be breezy as well. The

windiness from the less common northerly direction will have

greater tree impacts than a similar south wind. A modified arctic

front will spread south and southwest through Western Washington

early Sunday morning, with localized frontal convergence and

orographic lift leading to some lowland snow accumulations. The

average forecast snowfall up and down the I-5 corridor will be

about 1 to 2 inches. However, all meso models show a distinct hole

in the snowfall pattern from Poulsbo over to Seattle, likely from

precip shadowing downwind of the Olympics in northwest flow

aloft. So that is why the Bremerton and Seattle forecast zones are

excluded from the Winter Weather Advisory over the lowlands. Some

local enhancement of snow is expected just away from the water

near Port Angeles due to north-northeast wind upsloping against

the north slope of the Olympics, so the forecast there is for 2-4

inches of snow.

 

The front will be followed by the coldest air mass of this winter.

A hard freeze is expected areawide on Sunday night, with Monday

night likely being the coldest night of the upcoming cold spell.

At least the cold will come with drier weather. The last showers

will taper off over the Cascades on Sunday night or Monday, with

dry weather expected Monday and Monday night.

 

The NAM and GFS keep Tuesday dry as well. The ECMWF tries to

develop a warm advection nose of precip over Western Washington on

Tue. Since only two of the GFS ensemble`s 20 members show precip

at HQM on Tuesday, have kept PoPs on the low side. If any precip

does occur on Tue, it would still be cold enough for snow, even at

the coast. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...A cool northwest flow pattern will continue from Wed

through Sat. A system diving down from the northwest on Wed could

very well spread light precip across Western Washington, with

light snowfall accumulations. A lull in precip is possible Thu.

 

More precip with more weak shortwaves on Fri and Sat. The 12z

ECMWF was colder than the 12z GFS, but the 18z GFS seems to be

coming around to a cooler solution. This would keep snow levels at

or below 1000 feet, a situation of the snow threat continuing on

higher lowland hills but less so at sea level. Haner

In spite of the mesos, I think we'll do a little better than that in the central PS--especially in Poulsbo.

[Jesse]

Finally a heavy shower here. Temp fell into the 40s pretty quickly.

[Blizzard777]

Government camp just changed over to snow

[Deweydog]

FXUS66 KSEW 180005

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

405 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...The low center which brought today`s active weather

will exit east this evening. A modified arctic cold front will

move southward through Western Washington late tonight and early

Sunday, bringing the possibility of lowland snow followed by

strong north winds. Dry conditions are expected from late Sunday

through Tuesday with cold temperatures remaining in place. Another

system could slide in from the northwest around next Wednesday,

with light snow possible. More systems are possible on Friday and

Saturday, with light precipitation and low snow levels.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Deepening 996 mb surface low is now over northeast

Washington and exiting east. Therefore, strong westerly wind over

the forecast area will ever so slowly start to ease over the next

few hours. Heavy snow over the Cascades will also ease, though a

Puget Sound Convergence Zone may keep Stevens Pass going strong

for a while longer. With today`s heavy snow and strong wind, an

Avalanche Warning is also in effect for a few more hours in the

Cascades.

 

In the wake of today`s low center, a a continental polar air mass

will quickly spread south through interior B.C. and come pouring

out of the Fraser later tonight. The BLI-CYWL gradient is forecast

to peak near -20 mb on Sunday morning, making this a strong

Fraser Outflow event. Strong north- northeast winds will ensue,

most notably near Bellingham, the San Juans, and around to

Admiralty Inlet. Other places will be breezy as well. The

windiness from the less common northerly direction will have

greater tree impacts than a similar south wind. A modified arctic

front will spread south and southwest through Western Washington

early Sunday morning, with localized frontal convergence and

orographic lift leading to some lowland snow accumulations. The

average forecast snowfall up and down the I-5 corridor will be

about 1 to 2 inches. However, all meso models show a distinct hole

in the snowfall pattern from Poulsbo over to Seattle, likely from

precip shadowing downwind of the Olympics in northwest flow

aloft. So that is why the Bremerton and Seattle forecast zones are

excluded from the Winter Weather Advisory over the lowlands. Some

local enhancement of snow is expected just away from the water

near Port Angeles due to north-northeast wind upsloping against

the north slope of the Olympics, so the forecast there is for 2-4

inches of snow.

 

The front will be followed by the coldest air mass of this winter.

A hard freeze is expected areawide on Sunday night, with Monday

night likely being the coldest night of the upcoming cold spell.

At least the cold will come with drier weather. The last showers

will taper off over the Cascades on Sunday night or Monday, with

dry weather expected Monday and Monday night.

 

The NAM and GFS keep Tuesday dry as well. The ECMWF tries to

develop a warm advection nose of precip over Western Washington on

Tue. Since only two of the GFS ensemble`s 20 members show precip

at HQM on Tuesday, have kept PoPs on the low side. If any precip

does occur on Tue, it would still be cold enough for snow, even at

the coast. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...A cool northwest flow pattern will continue from Wed

through Sat. A system diving down from the northwest on Wed could

very well spread light precip across Western Washington, with

light snowfall accumulations. A lull in precip is possible Thu.

 

More precip with more weak shortwaves on Fri and Sat. The 12z

ECMWF was colder than the 12z GFS, but the 18z GFS seems to be

coming around to a cooler solution. This would keep snow levels at

or below 1000 feet, a situation of the snow threat continuing on

higher lowland hills but less so at sea level. Haner

Nice.

[Jesse]

Government camp just changed over to snow

#thankyouSSW

[χιόνι (chióni)]

However, all meso models show a distinct hole

in the snowfall pattern from Poulsbo over to Seattle, likely from

precip shadowing downwind of the Olympics in northwest flow

aloft.

 

Bainbridge Island no snow for you

[Deweydog]

I've had two text messages in the last hour from idiot family members asking if they should leave the house tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Well... What did you tell them?

 

Did you warm them that if they left they may never make it back?

Shelter in place.

[Deweydog]

Soooo close to saying goodbye to the 50's at PDX.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Shelter in place.

I'm starting to despise those words...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wonder who would win in a death match, Rod hill or jeff renner?

[Front Ranger]

#thankyouSSW

 

If only we had -NAO right now. Flash freezes for everyone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 44. So weird for the temp to be dropping as we got to peak heating. Saying goodbye to 45+ for a while!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I seen the flash freeze happen in december 1990.

[Winterdog]

The big headline opening the news on KOMO is “snow and sleet falling at Snoqualmie Pass”. Debra Horn is live at the pass to keep us informed

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The big headline opening the news on KOMO is “snow and sleet falling at Snoqualmie Pass”. Debra Horn is live at the pass to keep us informed

God there idiot's.

[Jbolin]

The big headline opening the news on KOMO is “snow and sleet falling at Snoqualmie Pass”. Debra Horn is live at the pass to keep us informed

KOMO or KIRO b/c Deborah Horne works for KIRO 

 

Not that it matters

[Arctic Front]

God there idiot's.

They're*. Oh the irony.

[luvssnow_spokane]

He always struck me as a scarf.

I was thinking flannel

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Last set of model runs before the models become no more effective than nowcasting. There's a lot of swirling going on just off Vancouver Island. Time for the HRRR to shine?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

They're*. Oh the irony.

I'm not here to impress you with spelling. Pretty hard to work on a car and contribute to the forum as is. No time to make sure i spell everything proper.

[Winterdog]

KOMO or KIRO b/c Deborah Horne works for KIRO

 

Not that it matters

you are right it was KIRO. Yeah it doesn’t matter. Both equally insipid.

[Geos]

UW WRF showing a nice Pugent Sound Convergence setup tomorrow morning which is why totals are higher over the Central Pugent Sound than other models:

 

 

Looks like a good setup for the area here.

[ShawniganLake]

Snowfall warnings for southeast Vancouver Island. Flurries heavy at times overnight with locally 4”+. Warnings may be extended to Greater Victoria

[snow_wizard]

OMG I'm stoked!

 

1. Tonight / tomorrow is looking good for snow.

2. Lows in the teens Sunday and Monday nights.

3. The mid week system is trending much colder with 18z dropping 850s to -9!

4. Strong indication of another significant cold outbreak around the 9 to 11 day period.

 

Wowwwww!

[MikeInEverett]

I feel like local media has downplayed everything ever since the great windstorm “bust” of October 2016. Didn’t we know it wasn’t gonna be anything like what they were saying the night before, but they just didn’t change the forecast?

[snow_wizard]

I feel like local media has downplayed everything ever since the great windstorm “bust” of October 2016. Didn’t we know it wasn’t gonna be anything like what they were saying the night before, but they just didn’t change the forecast?

 

I remember that.  I was entirely puzzled why they thought it would be so bad.

[Jbolin]

Amazing that so many media outlets locally along with NWS calling for virtually nothing for the DT KSEA metro area and extreme eastern Kitsap peninsula but when you take into acct NW flow, it's not surprising.

[kokaneekidz]

The big headline opening the news on KOMO is “snow and sleet falling at Snoqualmie Pass”. Debra Horn is live at the pass to keep us informed

Where is Steve Pool when we need him? Forecasting the BBQ Sandwich??

[wxmet]

NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands.