February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

"Best Case" - I'm sure some would disagree

I already got mad at them on social media for this one.

[Deweydog]

That’s a good point. With the amount of clearing offshore and thicknesses falling through the 530s this evening I could envision a midnight temp of 41-42 even without a precip assist, though.

Could be. Very dynamic pattern!

 

Reminds me of the night of 3-8-06, just without the strong cold front followed by wind-swept snow showers.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow the 18z is a cold run

Wish it showed a bit more snow in the valley but it'll either be a bit too warm or we get shadowed badly. Will still be nice and chilly at night though.

[Jesse]

Wish it showed a bit more snow in the valley but it'll either be a bit too warm or we get shadowed badly. Will still be nice and chilly at night though.

I've seen you refer to maps that show legit arctic air over you as BSF, so just because you think you aren't seeing a good lowland snow pattern does't mean it isn't showing one.

[Front Ranger]

Wish it showed a bit more snow in the valley but it'll either be a bit too warm or we get shadowed badly. Will still be nice and chilly at night though.

 

AKA, "Best Case Scenarios".

[Jesse]

Could be. Very dynamic pattern!

 

Reminds me of the night of 3-8-06, just without the strong cold front followed by wind-swept snow showers.

 

Yet another fun and active mid-February through early March period. Preceded by a SSW too.

[TT-SEA]

Don't fall for Jesse's silliness. I'm trolling you for fun, just as I trolled Tim for fun about Hawaii.

 

I'm not actually rooting against you or DCA (well maybe DCA a little, but it's more that I'm rooting for SEA/PDX to beat them again).

Spectacular day here despite active weather on parts of the island. 82 with a dewpoint of 67 and lots of sun. Feels good when a cloud meanders over. Ocean is warmer than normal too... almost 80.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX AFD 

 

Much colder air aloft will push inland tonight and Sun, allowing snow
levels to tumble down to around 500 to 1000 feet by Sun am. Plenty
of showers to push across region tonight, and with snow levels
lowering, think will have good chance of getting some sticking snow
down as low as 500 to 800 feet later tonight into early Sun am,
mainly in the Coast Range to Portland and northward.

Next upper disturbance now about 100 miles off the north tip of
Vancouver Island. Models insist this low will push inland over south
Washington or northwest Oregon later Sun am, then across to north
Oregon Cascades in the afternoon. Thicknesses and temperature profile
support snow fairly low to east of this low, but not sure if will get
all way to valley floors. Will be close, so will keep snow levels at
400 to 600 feet for Cowlitz lowlands southward through
Portland/Vancouver metro, and 700 to 1000 feet south of Portland down
to Salem and Eugene. At moment, leaning to 1 to 3 inches of snow for
areas above those levels, with an inch or less below. But, for most
areas below a 500 to 800 feet levels, snowfall will be spotty or
hit-n-miss as will depend on where showers develop/move, with brief
accumulations that will likely melt off a bit after it accumulates on
Sun.

As the day progresses, air mass will cool further, with snow levels
gradually lowering to valley floors by evening. Suspect this may be
best time for lowland accumulations, but likely an inch or possibly 2
incs for those areas, but may be in question as precipitation will be
gradually decreasing.

[Deweydog]

Yet another fun and active mid-February through early March period. Preceded by a SSW too.

Gonna be tough to squeeze a 70 degree day into the next 11 days of troughing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The euro has been fairly locked on for the midweek setup and things are mostly trending towards it. I expect the 00z GEM will come around too since it was an outlier relative to its own ensembles for the track of that system. 

 

King euro will win this.

 

After looking at it some more, I'm really loving what the 12z King EURO showed starting Tuesday afternoon with the system dropping down from the NW. As the system comes on down we are pretty much below freezing the entire time the system moves on through. For the EURO to be the first one to show this inside 96 hours means something and likely all the other models will play catch up soon. The exact details on the path and where the heaviest snowfall will be ironed out the next few days. As of right now move the low and all the moisture a little bit to the west and PDX gets a nice dumping.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

134mph gust at camp Muir.

[Front Ranger]

Spectacular day here despite active weather on parts of the island. 82 with a dewpoint of 67 and lots of sun. Feels good when a cloud meanders over. Ocean is warmer than normal too... almost 80.

 

Sounds like another NWS "Best Case Scenario". Don't forget your sunscreen.

 

Plus, you're missing the most miserable period this winter in the PNW!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 49. Love seeing the temp drop as we approach peak heating.

[Jesse]

Gonna be tough to squeeze a 70 degree day into the next 11 days of troughing.

 

Was it me who predicted that? I think I was away pouting about the mild January and first week of February when the possibility was mentioned.

[Deweydog]

Was it me who predicted that? I think I was away pouting about the mild January and first week of February when the possibility was mentioned.

I don't remember.

[Jesse]

I don't remember.

 

Reeks of a disillusioned Justin.

[Arctic Front]

I need to move

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Spectacular day here despite active weather on parts of the island. 82 with a dewpoint of 67 and lots of sun. Feels good when a cloud meanders over. Ocean is warmer than normal too... almost 80.

Which island? My folks are on the big island currently.

[Jesse]

I need to move

Try doing some jumping jacks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I need to move

I feel your pain.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like another NWS "Best Case Scenario". Don't forget your sunscreen.

 

Plus, you're missing the most miserable period this winter in the PNW!

I was there for the miserable part.

 

We are already tan... maybe a little burnt.

[Arctic Front]

Try doing some jumping jacks.

That involves work! Its a lazy day

[Front Ranger]

I was there for the miserable part.

 

You can vacation all over the world, but you can't escape karma.

[Arctic Front]

I feel your pain.

For those in the whatcom/skagit area, I live just south of Skagit Casino. Theres been a definite snow hole surrounding this area. Mossman and south contine to score, and northern Whatcom County has done quite well

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quite a few convective showers right now. Maybe that bodes well for minimizing shadowing?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've got to imagine there is some small part of you that is a little disappointed that your vacation coincided with what looks to be the most exciting period of the winter. I know you will never admit it though, since you have railed against the silliness of worrying about missing "a few days of cold and snow" for so many years.

 

It is kind of ironic that it eventually happened, though. I think this is the first time you have been somewhere tropical while a legit chance of snow and cold shows up for the western lowlands.

I would have changed my plans. I would be going nuts if i was away and missing the best part of winter. Besides i would never go to that shithole anyway.

[TT-SEA]

I've got to imagine there is some small part of you that is a little disappointed that your vacation coincided with what looks to be the most exciting period of the winter. I know you will never admit it though, since you have railed against the silliness of worrying about missing "a few days of cold and snow" for so many years.

Honestly... not at all. Maybe if it was Christmas. The only thing I would have been pissed about missing would be a week of 65 degree sun... and that is not going to happen!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Honestly... not at all. Maybe if it was Christmas. The only thing I would have been pissed about missing would be a week of 65 degree sun... and that is not going to happen!

You are not a true winter weather fan.

[Jesse]

I would have changed my plans. I would be going nuts if i was away and missing the best part of winter. Besides i would never go to that shithole anyway.

 

I just accidentally deleted that post. Dang it!

[Blizzard777]

South wind trending weaker here now

Mostly cloudy with temp of 45 dew point 39

I assume this is intermission time before the next part of the show

[Jesse]

Honestly... not at all. Maybe if it was Christmas. The only thing I would have been pissed about missing would be a week of 65 degree sun... and that is not going to happen!

 

You are so deliciously normal.

[TT-SEA]

I would have changed my plans. I would be going nuts if i was away and missing the best part of winter. Besides i would never go to that shithole anyway.

Absolutely gorgeous and clean here. I don't care that much about snow and cold. Its beautiful when its sunny and its better than rain. But I lose interest after January. I swear half the people here are wearing Mariners and Seahawks shirts and hats.

[Front Ranger]

Honestly... not at all. Maybe if it was Christmas. The only thing I would have been pissed about missing would be a week of 65 degree sun... and that is not going to happen!

 

You can go find tropical sunshine any time. Dime a dozen.

 

You can't find snow in the PNW lowlands (and COLD sunshine!!) any time.

[TT-SEA]

You are so deliciously normal.

I know. So boring.

[Deweydog]

You are so deliciously normal.

Tim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

(Like Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but not exactly the same)

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely gorgeous and clean here. I don't care that much about snow and cold. Its beautiful when its sunny and its better than rain. But I lose interest after January. I swear half the people here are wearing Mariners and Seahawks shirts and hats.

 

Sounds like they're missing out on a valuable opportunity to soak up vitamin D from head to toe.

[Winterdog]

You are so deliciously normal.

Abnormally normal.

[HighlandExperience]

You are so deliciously normal.

A true Minnesotan

[Jesse]

Tim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

(Like Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but not exactly the same)

 

I would have to search some posts but I don't think Tim has ever called Jim delicious. 

[Jesse]

Abnormally normal.

 

When you want everyone to be certain how normal you are that is usually a dead giveaway.