February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

BLI still at 44.

 

Stick a fork in it.

[Esquimalt]

Midnight tonight?

Yep.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS has also trended towards the EURO along with the NAM for the Tuesday night system. It pounds the southern half of the Willamette Valley pretty good. Glad to see models bringing in the moisture for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Let's hope for more moisture in future runs.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's a shame, and I hope they're all wrong.  I think the outflow is just going to be too strong and is going to dry the precipitation up.  The western communities have potential to get more than the eastern portions imo, but still, it's a disappointment.   d**n Victoria always misses out.  

 

I don't think it has to do with the outflow, but snow shadowing due to an unfavorable positioning of the surface low. Outflow drying isn't really an issue until the low tracks south of here late tomorrow morning.

 

The 0z GEM looks better for this area. A lack of agreement in the models is a good thing. These dynamic situations have a tendency to surprise (small surface lows and convective showers can popup at the last minute), but it's probably best to keep expectations low.

[Phil]

I made a brief slo-mo snow video today, if anyone is interested:

 

[Deweydog]

BLI still at 44.

 

Stick a fork in it.

They'll drop quickly once the sun goes down.

[Arctic Front]

Another test for the models on an approaching Arctic front tonight. The 0z GFS is amazing for East Vancouver Island, awful for Southern Vancouver Island, awful for the Southern Puget Sound, and decent for the northern Puget Sound/Southern WA/Northern OR.

 

Victoria 0z model prediction: 0z GFS has - 0", 0z NAM - 2", 0z ICON - TR, 0z GEM maybe 1-2". I'd be amazed if we ended up getting so screwed for snow with a nice looking upper level pattern and 850mb dropping to -13~-14C, but there is a fair amount of model support for it.

How about northern skagit/southern whatcom?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS has also trended towards the EURO along with the NAM for the Tuesday night system. It pounds the southern half of the Willamette Valley pretty good. Glad to see models bringing in the moisture for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Let's hope for more moisture in future runs.

 

Possibly even more snow Wednesday night into Thursday as another BC slider comes on down. Fun times ahead.

 

[Arctic Front]

BLI still at 44.

 

Stick a fork in it.

Pretty much

[ShawniganLake]

I don't think it has to do with the outflow, but snow shadowing due to an unfavorable positioning of the surface low. Outflow drying isn't really an issue until the low tracks south of here late tomorrow morning.

 

The 0z GEM looks better for this area. A lack of agreement in the models is a good thing. These dynamic situations have a tendency to surprise (small surface lows and convective showers can popup at the last minute), but it's probably best to keep expectations low.

Environment Canada’s snowfall warning makes me think they are leaning heavily towards their HRDPS solution and to a lesser extent the RGEM.

Other model solutions do not support their forecast. The ICON is snowless here. Seems unlikely.

[HighlandExperience]

WRF improvement continues. Looks like a good swath of 2-4 inches  south of I-90 stretching east right over south east king county maybe right over snowwiz? This run also looks much better for Kitsap county.

 

Not sure why its showing such little snow over lower mainland of BC

 

 

 

[Jbolin]

Barely above freezing in many interior BC locations, below are a select few

Squamish
Chilliwack
Hope 

Etc. 

Need this south wind to DIE!

[Winterdog]

WRF improvement continues. Looks like a good swath of 2-4 inches  south of I-90 stretching east right over south east king county maybe right over snowwiz?

It's starting to look like Mossman and I are going to be big losers according to the WRF.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

How about northern skagit/southern whatcom?

 

Doesn't look good for that area on the GEM, but looks decent on the GFS. Normally that area does well when this area does well, but it seems to have been the opposite in recent model runs. Downsloping will be an issue over there. I think it would be better for both areas if the low were tracking onshore NW -> SE rather than slipping offshore then looping back to the south, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2~3" in that area.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So much for the dry slot for kitsap lol.

[HighlandExperience]

So much for the dry slot for kitsap lol.

Right. Kitsap area snow showing 4+ inches along with much of SE King County if the WRF is to be belived.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jaya better make a call and add kitsap to the advisory!!

[HighlandExperience]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Environment Canada’s snowfall warning makes me think they are leaning heavily towards their HRDPS solution and to a lesser extent the RGEM.

Other model solutions do not support their forecast. The ICON is snowless here. Seems unlikely.

 

Probably a good thing they haven't issued a full out warning here, some of our biggest snowfalls have come when the warning wasn't issued until the snow started to fall. They're often pretty aggressive with their warnings in marginal overrunning setups.

[GHweatherChris]

Current 925 temp.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEM also trended towards the EURO along with the NAM and GFS. Snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Also another BC slider brings snow on Thursday.

 

[Jbolin]

Current 925 temp.

Haven't seen you in a while, has this winter forced you into seclusion?

[Jbolin]

WRF threw a D**n wrench into the plans didn't it?

[HighlandExperience]

WRF threw a d**n wrench into the plans didn't it?

Pretty much did a 180. Encouraging to see at least. Literally anything is possible now.

[Winterdog]

00z GEM also trended towards the EURO along with the NAM and GFS. Snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Also another BC slider brings snow on Thursday.

Looks pretty good for everyone south of Seattle. Similar to the past few winters. I shouldn't complain though, we did get our 3" at Christmas.

[jaya]

Pretty much did a 180. Encouraging to see at least. Literally anything is possible now.

Live by the WRF, die by the WRF.  It gives very pretty and plausible solutions. But errors can be huge and consistency can be an issue.  It can grossly overdo terrain effects when it comes to rain shadowing and to terrain enhanced precipitation.   Look for types of precipitation (convective vs stratiform), general patterns, model blends work best ...  Model riding will only make you dizzy and frustrated.

[Gradient Keeper]

S N O W !

[wxmet]

WRF 00Z is pretty impressive with totals over Seattle metro. It's picking up on a strong convergence band forming in the early morning hours around 6-7am:

 

[snow_wizard]

WRF improvement continues. Looks like a good swath of 2-4 inches  south of I-90 stretching east right over south east king county maybe right over snowwiz? This run also looks much better for Kitsap county.

 

Not sure why its showing such little snow over lower mainland of BC

 

 

 

 

It's almost scary having the WRF look this good.  I'm used to it showing nothing and being wrong.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks pretty good for everyone south of Seattle. Similar to the past few winters. I shouldn't complain though, we did get our 3" at Christmas.

Hopefully everybody can get a solid 2 to 3 inches with the Arctic Front so we are all happy.

[snow_wizard]

Live by the WRF, die by the WRF.  It gives very pretty and plausible solutions. But errors can be huge and consistency can be an issue.  It can grossly overdo terrain effects when it comes to rain shadowing and to terrain enhanced precipitation.   Look for types of precipitation (convective vs stratiform), general patterns, model blends work best ...  Model riding will only make you dizzy and frustrated.

 

No doubt.  Past experience counts heavily also.  I've seen enough of these to recognize it looks quite promising.  It would be very surprising to not see anything out of this.

[snow_wizard]

I continue to be giddy about the cold snaps the models keep adding to the coming week.  Thicknesses almost never go above 522 now for quite some time.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF improvement continues. Looks like a good swath of 2-4 inches south of I-90 stretching east right over south east king county maybe right over snowwiz? This run also looks much better for Kitsap county.

 

Not sure why its showing such little snow over lower mainland of BC

 

 

 

It overdoes the dry air and evaporation in the Fraser outflow in BC. Which is why it’s showing no snow. It’s currently dumping snow east of Chilliwack and winds are about to switch easterly at Abbotsford.

[MikeInEverett]

Very intense band of precip moving through central Snohomish County right now.

[Parksvillewx]

Light rain and 37.5F. Temp has actually gone up 1F in the last half hour.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is thing of beauty.  Just one wave of cold after another.  Really quite epic for this late.  Might be kind of like 1955 for duration.

[snow_wizard]

Chilliwack now 33 with snow.  The wind shift has gone west of there too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM snowy down here this week.

[snow_wizard]

Precip type is going to snow in the hills south of Bellingham and in the Black Hills of Grays Harbor County.  It has begun!

[snow_wizard]

Light rain and 37.5F. Temp has actually gone up 1F in the last half hour.

 

Just wait until the low sags a bit south.  Any minute now...