Phil Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I did tell you about the EPS today. See post below... you responded to it. And it was more than transitioning at the end of the run. It goes from cold to warm from day 10 to day 15. Phil is showing a blended 5-day mean which does not represent the big change from day 10 to day 15. It was definitely colder in the 7-10 day period as well. Here is day 15: Uh yeah, as I said above, it doesn’t warm up until the end of week two. The ridgy period won’t begin until the last few days of March, at earliest (IMO). Then it lasts 7-10 days until there’s sufficient AAM pullback/retrogression to rebuild the ridge over the GOA/Aleutians once again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Down to 30 again this morning at Station of the God's South. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Hit 30 here this morning. Some classic 33 degree rain falling now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 30 frosty degrees currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Down to 30 again this morning at Station of the God's South.After a high of 49 yesturdday. They just won’t stop winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Not as frosty as yesterday, but my car was still encased in a thin layer of ice this morning. This pattern really is pretty great. Hard to beat 55/30 type days with wall to wall sunshine this time of year. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I was impressed to see the Skykomish airport cam still covered in snow. For 1,000 feet that area gets snow remarkably often and holds onto it incredibly well. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Got down to a surprising 26 degrees here earlier this morning. Kold Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I was impressed to see the Skykomish airport cam still covered in snow. For 1,000 feet that area gets snow remarkably often and holds onto it incredibly well. skyse (1).jpg That is incredible. I am at the same elevation and there not been a hint of snow on the ground for at least 10 days now... and even that was spotty for the week before that time. Even our ridge is completely bare now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 So far. I honestly expected it to be better after the very persistent precip in January and February. I knew it was a good sign for spring. We could still end up with a May like 1962 though. That was a mess from start to finish. Would you rather have a "nice" late winter/early spring or a "nice" late spring/early summer? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Would you rather have a "nice" late winter/early spring or a "nice" late spring/early summer? Much worse for it to be really nice and then go completely backwards for a month or more in April or May or even into June. Seems like a slow ramp up is best. You get some nice weather in between storms but don't burn the budget Extended nice weather in March is usually a bad sign for the rest of spring. I am glad to see the active and cold period next week for just that reason.... and only that reason. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Always impressed at how warm SEA is on mornings like these. I have been in the low thirties the last several mornings with frost/ice on the car that I have had to scrape and SEA hasn’t even gotten below the 40s for lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Cloudy and damp this morning in Salem. Long range GFS is somewhat chilly...I don't think we'll see anything earth shattering this month, but I think we are on track for a cooler spring than some of the past few. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Much worse for it to be really nice and then go completely backwards for a month or more in April or May or even into June. Seems like a slow ramp up is best. You get some nice weather in between storms but don't burn the budget Extended nice weather in March is usually a bad sign for the rest of spring. I am glad to see the active and cold period next week for just that reason.... and only that reason. I haven't done the research, but it would be interesting to see if this idea is backed up by data. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I haven't done the research, but it would be interesting to see if this idea is backed up by data. I have not quantified it either. But I have gone through daily records since 1895 so many times that I generally know how things evolve around here. Too much nice weather too soon and it seems like we pay for it later in the spring and early summer. There are exceptions to everything of course. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Nasty warm front wipes out our trough on days 9-10 of the Euro. Hopefully this one is an outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Nasty warm front wipes out our trough on days 9-10 of the Euro. Hopefully this one is an outlier.Probably going to be warm and wet in the transition to ridging. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Probably going to be warm and wet in the transition to ridging.Based on this one run? Ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Based on this one run? Ok.No... based on history. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 D9-14 EPS looks Jesse-tastic. (Yes Tim, it warms up by D13). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 No... based on history.Ah, the old fallback. There are many cold March troughs that have transitioned straight to northerly flow, and there are many that have resulted in a warm frontal slog. Pretty mixed bag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 D9-14 EPS looks Jesse-tastic. Best not to blend. There is a distinct transition in that period from cold to warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Ah, the old fallback. There are many cold March troughs that have transitioned straight to northerly flow, and there are many that have resulted in a warm frontal slog. Pretty mixed bag.Probably right... I just assume the worst. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 New Euro weeklies depict the upcoming ridgy episode very clearly now, and also the subsequent retrograde and return to troughing/-PNA. April 1st..big ridge: One week later, the retrograde is already occurring: By mid-April, it’s a clear Niña pattern, though ensemble spread is becoming very large at this point: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 That trough will bring cooler than normal temps. Maybe snow in April too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 That trough will bring cooler than normal temps. Maybe snow in April too? The trough on the ECMWF weeklies in April looks fairly zonal... could actually be warmer than normal and rainy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Dies the ecwf still show snow for that period in this mornings runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Dies the ecwf still show snow for that period in this mornings runs? Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run. Oh Tim... Please just stop. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Oh Tim... Please just stop.Sorry. My bad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Tim, for what it’s worth, the 12z EPS seems to hint at a drier transition out of the trough. We would probably both like that. Hope I am not making things too personal mentioning you by name here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Tim, for what it’s worth, the 12z EPS seems to hint at a drier transition out of the trough. We would probably both like that. Hope I am not making things too personal mentioning you by name here.No... but you did before. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 12Z EPS is colder again with the trough in the 7-9 day period. Looks very impressive. Also turns even warmer after day 10. Roller coaster! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Gorgeous day... sunny and 55 with no wind at all. March perfection under a deep trough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run. That's pretty snowy for the third week in March! Great day today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Up to 57 at SEA. I see its also 51 at Whistler. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 PDX wildly overachieving again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I guess it’s not possible to have a single solidly cool day with this pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 I guess it’s not possible to have a single solidly cool day with this pattern.I love ULL patterns. Looks like a deep trough in the models but the details are so much better. Even better up here usually. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 16, 2018 Report Share Posted March 16, 2018 Up to 57 at SEA. I see its also 51 at Whistler.Only 23F at the top. Quite a spread on your way up the mountain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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