March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

How do you remember all of this? Good chance you have the largest cerebral hard drive in human history.

 

I just took a screenshot of your post, should I need to reference the info later. Haha. Perhaps it’s no coincidence this year also had a SSW and is -QBO. Though my hunch is this ends up being the start of a walkback from the post-2013 pattern over the North Pacific.

 

Eh, probably not. 

 

I agree that this is a good opportunity to shake things up in the N. Pacific. We're due for a cool summer, for one. 

[TT-SEA]

Heh, the 12z Euro drops Minneapolis to 6*F on April 7th, which would tie their 2nd coldest April low since 1872. Always tougher in the big cities today with the expanding UHI, though.

 

That said, I think someone will pull it off.

 

 

[Jesse]

Isn’t Mankato your home town Tim?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April is going to be a winter month in the upper midwest this year. Wow. I hope the twins and Tigers are on the road a lot.

[TT-SEA]

Isn’t Mankato your home town Tim?

 

No.  

 

Eagan... southern suburb of the Twin Cities.

[Jesse]

No.

 

Eagan... southern suburb of the Twin Cities.

Oh. : /

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim is going to get HAMMERED tomorrow night if the C-Zone sets up as the GFS shows. Could see some snow here too, but won't have a C-zone to enhance precip.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is going to get HAMMERED tomorrow night if the C-Zone sets up as the GFS shows. Could see some snow here too, but won't have a C-zone to enhance precip.

 

 

Its actually just to my north on the WRF when its at its strongest.    Typical set-up in this situation.   

[Jesse]

Amazing how mild and wet it looks late next week for this point in the year.

[MossMan]

Fun Factoid of the day... According to Facebook one year ago today was my first mow and the grass still looked like crap. This year I have mowed 3 times already (first was Feb. 13th) a 4th coming today. My turf weathered winter much better this season due to cold with snowcover as opposed to cold without snow cover. I much prefer snowcover cold!

Bottom pic was my Feb. 13th first mow from this year.

[Jesse]

I’m hoping that lawnmower has heated seats and a cupholder.

[MossMan]

I’m hoping that lawnmower has heated seats and a cupholder.

Has a cup holder and has heated seats if I park it in the sun for a few minutes before mowing!

[stuffradio]

I think the 12Z might be wet... 8" of rain by mid April. Just over 6" is average for the entire month.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Finishing off March with 0.57", well below average. From the looks of the models April should balance things out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We definitely need the rain. Also plenty of mountain snow starting next weekend, so lots of good news all around.

[Jesse]

We definitely need the rain. Also plenty of mountain snow starting next weekend, so lots of good news all around.

Yeah, I really like where the pattern goes in the LR. Hopefully the warm rains don’t do too much damage to the snowpack beforehand, though.

[MossMan]

We definitely need the rain. Also plenty of mountain snow starting next weekend, so lots of good news all around.

You might...up north might...but we are already floating wet around here and really could use a break in the rain department.

Hopefully we get some shadowing here.

[TT-SEA]

Got the Easter Egg hunt done on this beautiful morning... because tomorrow looks terrible.

[Jesse]

Got the Easter Egg hunt done on this beautiful morning... because tomorrow looks terrible.

Snow would provide a lot of interesting egg hiding opportunities!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already up to 55 after a low of 38 this morning. Could end March with a pleasant 60 degree day.

[Jesse]

Already up to 55 after a low of 38 this morning. Could end March with a pleasant 60 degree day.

PDX up to 51. But could see some quick warming later. Models have been hinting at low-mid 60s today for awhile.

[Jesse]

Interesting to see BLI with a little bit of cool outflow today. They hit 32 this morning and are now at 53 DP 28 with NE winds.

 

The late season airmass that clipped us to the north is making its presence known from the northern Rockies eastward today. One of my buddies is in Whitefish and says it was in the upper teens this morning.

 

The next cold shot will impact us more directly before affecting the rest of the country eastward.

[MossMan]

Lovely day. Sun and warmth...too bad it won’t last into Easter.

[Phil]

The hi-res ECMWF has pockets of -40*F surface temperatures near the Hudson Bay during the first week of April, on at least two nights. That’s colder than anything observed there until Dec 22nd last winter.

[Phil]

This March will probably finish ~ 10*F colder than December over the Canadian Arctic domain, judging by the preliminary reanalysis.

 

Additionally, the first week of April might finish colder than the last week of December across the high Canadian Arctic.

[Jesse]

This March will probably finish ~ 10*F colder than December over the Canadian Arctic domain, judging by the preliminary reanalysis.

 

Additionally, the first week of April might finish colder than the last week of December across the high Canadian Arctic.

 

That SSW must not have served as a final warming event after all.

[TT-SEA]

That SSW must not have served as a final warming event after all.

No doubt... the cold in the Midwest is insane and not going anywhere. I can't remember anything like that for the first half of April.

 

Final warming my a*s.

[Phil]

That SSW must not have served as a final warming event after all.

Lmao.

 

Sarcasm aside, you’re actually correct, because winds did briefly reverse to westerly in the stratosphere after it was over. So if didn’t technically fit the definition of a “final” stratospheric warming event. But it was a massive SSW that did fit the “midwinter” definition of such.

 

Here’s the data. Record breaking SSW event, but there was just enough time to recover a bit before insolation increased too much. Still a much bigger event than the 2013 one, though.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Jesse]

Lmao.

 

Sarcasm aside, you’re actually correct, because winds did briefly reverse to westerly in the stratosphere after it was over. So if didn’t technically fit the definition of a final stratospheric warming event.

 

Here’s the data. Record breaking SSW event, but there was just enough time to recover a bit before insolation increased too much. Still a much bigger event than the 2013 one, though.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

I actually wasn’t being sarcastic. I’m glad to see my intuition was right though considering how little I know about this stuff (although your treasure trove of PMs have been teaching me ).

[Phil]

I actually wasn’t being sarcastic. I’m glad to see my intuition was right though considering how little I know about this stuff (although your treasure trove of PMs have been teaching me ).

Haha, thanks man. I’m learning along the way too.

 

The “final warming” happens every spring. It’s when the stratospheric polar vortex is replaced at by a high pressure anticyclone, which lasts through the summer. The stratospheric polar vortex usually only exists from October to April, though it has been known to last into May on occasion.

 

What could have *theoretically* happened is the SSW could have beaten down the PV so badly that it failed to recover altogether (with the aid of continued WAFs knocking its corpse off the pole) given how late in the season it occurred, hence it would then have functioned as BOTH a SSW and a final warming event. That has never happened in February before, and for good reason, but it would have been quite the statistic.

[Phil]

For example, here is the CFS stratosphere forecast from now into next autumn. Notice the permanent summer anticyclone up there..no PV. It doesn’t exist during the summer, and only begins to reform during the early/mid autumn (insolation/radiation gradients and photochemical forcings). The exact timing of its inception and early season development may be correlated to thermodynamic boundary conditions set by radiation fluxes from the Sun and sea ice. Though the tropics probably play a larger role.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018033100&fh=1

 

This actually makes comparitively harder to make seasonal forecasts for the mid/high latitudes during

JJA, relative to DJF. The stratospheric PV often has the NAM (and by consequence, PNA/NAO) in a chastity belt during the cold season. So there are certain boundary conditions present that can be utilized during the winter to forecast at-range, which cannot he used during the summer, since said boundaries only exist during the cold season.

[Phil]

Speaking of which, it’s simply amazing how useless these climate models are, even just one month out. Always insanely warm-biased, especially in the mid/upper troposphere.

 

It’s getting worse every year, too. Here’s the CFS projection for May/June across the NH..remember this runs on a 1984-2009 model climatology. Pure crap.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back down to 55 after briefly hitting 57.

[Phil]

Let’s see how May/June actually turn out this year. I’m betting we see a lot more blue on that map (and a lot less orange) when compared with the aforementioned CFS projections for said months.

 

It’s disturbing when you consider the fact that the physics suite(s) run within the CFS (et al) is actually far more advanced, less sequentially parameterized, and higher in spatial resolution compared to those run within the majority of climate models used for climate change projections.

 

If these models are busting warm by (on average) 1.21C within eight weeks of initialization..what does that say about their projections decades/centuries into the future?

 

My peers (and superiors) will often roll their eyes at me when I say this, but I don’t think today’s GCMs are worth a penny, as far as their future projections are concerned..let alone billions of dollars.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Speaking of which, it’s simply amazing how useless these climate models are, even just one month out. Always insanely warm-biased, especially in the mid/upper troposphere.

 

It’s getting worse every year, too. Here’s the CFS projection for May/June across the NH..remember this runs on a 1984-2009 model climatology. Pure crap.

 

 

Yeah the CFS is utter crap. It's just literally throwing darts on the board after a month out and hoping to hit something. Even other models that are known to have higher accuracy have struggled this past year. The only long range model that I've seen do well are the MJO analog forecast when you isolate the amplitude and longitude of the MJO.

[Phil]

Looks like this part of the jet extension has essentially maxed out. We’ll be trending into a more retracted and poleward-shifted regime over the next nine days.

 

I love this tool.

 

[TT-SEA]

60 and sunny here... perfect day.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a gorgeous Easter coming up.

[Phil]

Some pretty fascinating articles from 1922 discussing the rapid Arctic warming at the time. These accounts largely affirm the 1917/18 start time. (I added the red boxes).

 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a gorgeous Easter coming up.

Cue Dewey Jesus joke.