Tony Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOT's take on the 12z data so far..... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014DISCUSSION1234 PM CDTWINTER STORM UPDATE...CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KSROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL. TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECASTAND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATEAFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAINCOMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TOSNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INFROM THE NORTH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 EURO. Some of it is rain though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 screw it. im gonna say precip heads a little north and over performs. my area gets 7-10". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking like a very minimum event here for both rain and snow. Will put out the gauge today though, just to see what I end up getting for precip. I'm guessing under .10".. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 EURO has most of Chicagoland at or slightly above freezing still at 6z.Going to be sloppy initially for sure. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z Euro with a slight NW shift... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 screw it. im gonna say precip heads a little north and over performs. my area gets 7-10".AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 DISCUSSION 1234 PM CDT LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWINGA VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS ISOVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY INLINE WITH GOING FORECAST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Whatever....getting tired of looking at these models hoping for any kind of change. Nowcast time so radar trends will be the way to go and hope for an earlier phase/stronger wetter solution to what models are showing and as we know stranger things have happened before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Current surface. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Pretty much went due north from when it slipped into OK. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Im forecasted for 8-12inches!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nikos, your going to come very close to breaking your snow record. Hope you get it with this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Tom...I hope so. Its going to be a close call. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 what is stopping this from spinning up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 PV to the north is stopping it from cutting to far north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 PV to the north is stopping it from cutting to far north...And exactly why I wasn't so pumped about the PV being around.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 whats new.... looks like maybe a shot at some clipper snow Thurs.....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm gonna go with a 70% shot of scattered darkness after 9 PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Winterstorm Warning now issued for my area for 6-9 inches or more. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can't find it but I heard LOT updated warning text calling still 4-8 locally higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 This does not look half bad. All it would take is a smidge of a north jog and we are in the game. Very tight gardient on the 18z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 302 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 * SNOW RATES...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 +1 Tony, even a 25 mile shift NW on the NAM would place most of N IL in the sweet spot and that is not unheard of with this type of system. This storm is too dynamic to underperform. Does anyone have the SREF's? WxBell is not loading up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I am really like what HPC is suggesting 70 % of at least 4", 40% for 8", and a 10 % for 12". This may turn out to be a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 STL is at 81 degrees. Unbelievable. Hard with such a dynamic system and pretty tight one to to ignore higher potential totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Still in the low 40s out there, which is a bit surprising. Even raining in Milwaukee. Wondering if dry air flowing down the lake it what is creating the sharp cut off to the north...? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Upstate NY and New England are going to get crushed by this storm...1-2 Feet of Powder. Probably will become a Blizzard by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Some Bacardi and a all nighter I think Chicago will do just fine tonight. Hopefully some thunder and lightning. I will broadcast live tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 My Grid forecast is calling for 4-7" with heavy snow wording...I would not be surprised to see some LehS with a perfect NNE wind trajectory down the lake towards the early morning hours when 850's start to crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I believe evaporation cooling will help lower temps as precip starts to break out initially and encourage a quicker change over to snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 My Grid forecast is calling for 4-7" with heavy snow wording...I would not be surprised to see some LehS with a perfect NNE wind trajectory down the lake towards the early morning hours when 850's start to crash. It's gonna be tight but it should stay NW of us Tom. Geos should still flirt with advisory. NW trend def still possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 A very tricky forecast we have here. Multiple variables arguing for a more north track, but models not picking up on the north track means it's all moot. Hopefully now casting can come through for us and deliver those 5"/hour rates the 0z NAM dropped last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 30s are still pretty far north up by Sheboygan. HRRR at 11pm Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 lol Caplain had 48 degrees Thursday but his 7 day had days wrong. Why don't they do there own 7 day instead of using accuweather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol, we'd be going nuts for a 4-7" event over here... But hey, I'm getting cold air, so I can't complain....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Newest map from LOT. GFS cutting back in MI. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Decided to sit out and grill tonight. 45 degrees here. Hard to believe all the hard work to show all this grass will be gone come morning time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Rain has changed over to light snow here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Still in the upper 30s here. Had some rain on the way home, but it dried out completely before I left Kenosha. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 First and final call: RFD: 2"UGN: 4"ORD: 5"MDY: 7"DTX: 8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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