PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Perturbed Member]

32.5F and the precip is about to finally hit. Gonna enjoy every bit of this. 

[Slushy Inch]

Freezing high temperatures a possibility. 

[snow_wizard]

Run to run change on the EPS is rather impressive!

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yesssir

Incredible for a mean.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

32.5F and the precip is about to finally hit. Gonna enjoy every bit of this. 

Good luck!

[snow_wizard]

I'm getting really stoked!

[snow_wizard]

Nearly orgasmic EPS.

[snow_wizard]

I have to say for this area this might end up being the best pair (2021-22 and 2022-23) of winters in a very long time.  Really weird that 1921-22 and 1922-23 was one of the best pairs of the 20th century as well.

[Jbolin]

23 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

So a late Winter blast it is! WOW. Colder Runs Ahead! MBG!

Motherf****er, it's not even Wednesday yet.

You broke your promise. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Motherf****er, it's not even Wednesday yet.

You broke your promise. 

This is true. I'm real confident, so I had to pull the trigger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Retrogression begins Day 6.5 to 7 with both the EPS and CMCE. Timing is moving ahead nicely.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This is true. I'm real confident, so I had to pull the trigger.

Goddammit, ok.

But if you're wrong I want a full refund plus "snow credit" for next winter. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows exactly 6 inches for SEA with the big cold wave late in the run.  That would be a great event.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to say for this area this might end up being the best pair (2021-22 and 2022-23) of winters in a very long time.  Really weird that 1921-22 and 1922-23 was one of the best pairs of the 20th century as well.

[SouthHillFrosty]

EPS looks good!

[TacomaWx]

We may have wrote off February too early. 

[snow_wizard]

Hard to not go all in with an EPS like this.

[Gradient Keeper]

It sure seems that weak low is tracking further south than modeled doesn't look to move onshore anywhere near the central Washington Coast. What do you think?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We may have wrote off February too early. 

I certainly never wrote it off.  It might end up being one of the best of the century now.  That's actually saying something.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We may have wrote off February too early. 

Good thing it didn’t write back 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I certainly never wrote it off.  It might end up being one of the best of the century now.  That's actually saying something.

Good luck beating 2019.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This has been such a weird year. My best events have way over performed. My worst events have way under achieved. Kinda like an opposite world thing this year.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Good luck beating 2019.

It’s all relative. I’m close to beating my total from 2019. However, my area also way underperformed in comparison to everybody else 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Good luck beating 2019.

That would be very hard.  Not impossible with what the models are showing, but very hard.

[Gradient Keeper]

Radar filling in nicely west of PDX metro

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It sure seems that weak low is tracking further south than modeled doesn't look to move onshore anywhere near the central Washington Coast. What do you think?

It’s going to drop nearly due south along the coast. Filling in over the central coastline of Oregon 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This has been such a weird year. My best events have way over performed. My worst events have way under achieved. Kinda like an opposite world thing this year.

It seems like it's been nothing but overperformance for your area.  I've done OK, but you have been in the sweet spot repeatedly.

The thing that's really weird is how poorly Seattle proper and normally snowier areas up north have done.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s going to drop nearly due south along the coast. Filling in over the central coastline of Oregon 

Yeah models were wrong suggesting a Hoquiam to Portland track.

[Perturbed Member]

Coming down nicely here and starting to stick. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah models were wrong suggesting a Hoquiam to Portland track.

How does that bode for Portland… better?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

How does that bode for Portland… better?

Yeah.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah models were wrong suggesting a Hoquiam to Portland track.

Take a look at the RGEM, it actually always had that southern track. I think it will end up being right. 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Take a look at the RGEM, it actually always had that southern track. I think it will end up being right. 

 

 

It sure might be.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS spaghetti hints the timing could be moved up even more.  Quite a few members get cold before the mean does.

[Perturbed Member]

Absolutely dumping now, huge flakes! Don't even need the street light to see it. Hell yeah. Accumulating quickly on everything. Temp holding at 32.5F. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Absolutely dumping now, huge flakes! Don't even need the street light to see it. Hell yeah. Accumulating quickly on everything. Temp holding at 32.5F. 

Heck yea! Take photos and share!!

[TacomaWx]

What a blessing. Truly the real deal. 

[thickhog]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Absolutely dumping now, huge flakes! Don't even need the street light to see it. Hell yeah. Accumulating quickly on everything. Temp holding at 32.5F. 

I was shocked at the size of the flakes earlier.

[Slushy Inch]

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

So you’re not going to pull an all-nighter? I find your lack of dedication quite disturbing. 

I always pull all nighters during major nocturnal wx events. Haven’t had to do that this winter, though.