September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 46F w cloudy skies. Showers will remain in the forecast for a couple of days.

[OKwx2k4]

On this Football Sunday, I found an interesting way to use the weather maps and portray some football lingo. In the 500mb animation below, take a look at the trough just south of the Aleutian Islands back on Sept 27th. This is likely the beginning of the "new" LRC pattern which is evolving as we speak. The Split Flow across NW NAMER is influencing the movement of the energy from the Aleutian Low, which results in a "hand off" underneath the NE PAC/AK ridge, which allows this energy to migrate slowly into Cali and the SW.

 

We'll see what Gary Lezak says, but I think this may be the 2nd system of the '18-'19 LRC pattern. Rosa may in fact be system #1, but I've learned that the opening first few days of October are still somewhat influenced by the "old" pattern. I'm very intrigued by this evolving pattern.

That is simply a beautiful display of what "perfect" pattern development looks like. I'd hang on to that gif for awhile. Been decades since the Bering Sea and western Arctic has looked like that.

 

Guess all I have to do is say its going to happen and it does. Lol.

 

Said the models were gonna flip and "Boom". Lucky me.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just returned from church. 45 degrees with heavy drizzle falling and north winds to 25 mph. Feels like a November day waiting for a snowstorm.

[Tom]

That is simply a beautiful display of what "perfect" pattern development looks like. I'd hang on to that gif for awhile. Been decades since the Bering Sea and western Arctic has looked like that.

 

Guess all I have to do is say its going to happen and it does. Lol.

 

Said the models were gonna flip and "Boom". Lucky me.

I, personally, have never seen a pattern like this while tracking the wx in such depth during this modern era. I’ve been wishing and hoping to see it happen tho. Maybe those who have lived through the winters during the ‘76-‘79 era will now get a chance to see this play out during the modern era, all awhile, using the various wx maps we have at our disposal.

[Tom]

Patchy Frost this weekend across parts of the region Sat am??? Some places may dip pretty close to Freezing underneath HP and calm winds. The wet grounds may inhibit that from happening though. Last year, I remember how dry the grounds were and temps actually dipped lower than forecasted.

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead into later next week, a highly amplified pattern forms across N.A. and the seasons first Clipper tracks across the N GL's??? Yup, it's really interesting seeing the progression of this pattern and this system around the 27th/28th ushers in some real cold early season chill next weekend. I wouldn't discount the seasons first flakes for parts of the northern sub to close out the month. Around this period, we will likely be transitioning into the new LRC pattern with more weight on the "new" LRC. This clipper may just in fact be another feature that will be part of the cyclical nature of the '18/'19 LRC. I'm finding some intriguing patterns setting up as we move towards October, as well as, the new LRC's first "cutter" of the season???

 

Taking a look into the longer range pattern, adding more confidence towards a system that I believe would be impacting our sub around October 7th-11th is showing up on another long range forecasting tool. Utilizing the East Asian Theory, a re-curving Typhoon is set to impact Japan in the extended. I commented on the BSR a few days ago that provided a clue to this idea of a storm system effecting our sub, alongside a signal that a SE may be present. Well, if you take a look at last nights 00z EPS it is advertising a SW/NE track of a re-curving Typhoon. IMO, this is the system that snaps into the new cyclical pattern which will be impacting our sub. Here we go!

This, my friends, can end up being the lower 48’s first major winter storm of the season! The Oct 7th date is seemingly coming together as nearly all the models are showing a big storm during this timeframe. Those in the high plains and N Rockies will need to dust off those snow blowers and shovels later this week.

[OKwx2k4]

I, personally, have never seen a pattern like this while tracking the wx in such depth during this modern era. I’ve been wishing and hoping to see it happen tho. Maybe those who have lived through the winters during the ‘76-‘79 era will now get a chance to see this play out during the modern era, all awhile, using the various wx maps we have at our disposal.

Folks in the 70s had to wait until December for theirs to start, with exception to one of the "Big 3", cant remember off-hand which. If this is one of our last major central CONUS ridge complexes of the season, it's not half as stout as the ridges that rolled across the entire CONUS in 1976 and 1977. That says something HUGE by itself about the strength of the Arctic domain doing forward.

[Stormgeek]

Man, everything seems to be falling into place from what I am reading. Hoping to cash in this winter! Winter didn't start here last year until quite late and was pretty bleh if you don't count the big dog at the end of the season that leveled MSP. Hopeful for fun times ahead! (even if it is only September right now)

[Niko]

Currently at 52F and cloudy. More rain on the way.

[jaster220]

Disappointed that the rain has mainly stayed north of 94 all day. Was up in GR and there it was 40's and steady rain on a NE wind. #November-like Shocking considering the heat here a mere week ago. Saw some nice early colors across SWMI too. Looks like many trees are preparing to burst with brilliant colors in the next 10 days. I expect much more vibrant color compared to last year when it never got chilly until past peak time.

[Hawkeye]

I finished September with 9.38" of rain.

[jaster220]

Check out this webcam in the Extreme NE part of the MN Arrowhead area. Is that snow or thick frost?

webcamwx.PNG

Last Friday Hill City, SD where my sister had a ranch some years back recorded 6.5"

 

That's early, even for there

[Iowawx]

I'm a bit late posting this, but for the month of September, I recorded 9.42 inches of rain.