September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Whatever.

 

So the snow at 8,000 feet on Mt Hood is what would help the tress out your window more than being directly doused with rain in May?

 

If you could only pick one... I know you would pick the rain in Portland.

Silly to talk about picking just one since it represents a situation that wouldn’t happen in reality. This is dumbing down pretty rapidly. Starting to get flashbacks to Phil’s 45 degree rain versus 120 degree heat all year debate.

[Jesse]

Looks like some Eurotrash days 6-10.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Tomorrow looks pretty wet here. The 0.07” the past 2 days was pretty underwhelming

 

Ended up with 0.27" here, I figured there'd be more up there.

[TT-SEA]

Silly to talk about picking just one since it represents a situation that wouldn’t happen in reality. This is dumbing down pretty rapidly. Starting to get flashbacks to Phil’s 45 degree rain versus 120 degree heat all year debate.

The primary reason for the low soil moisture and tree stress in Portland is the unusually long and hot summer. And the record dry and warm late spring really extended the season down there.

 

What happened in January or how much snow there was at the higher elevations at the end of the season is not the big problem.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty much... in terms of soil moisture and tree stress in Portland in late summer.     

 

Had the mountain snow pack been normal on April 15th and everything else played out exactly the same... the trees would be in the same dire situation in Portland.   Significant rain in May would have helped quite a bit though... even with less than normal snowpack on April 15th.  

 

The trees are currently stressed more by the unprecedentedly sustained heat over several consecutive summers than they are by the lack of rain in a given spring. Runoff is very important for soil moisture though, and that is simply not a matter of debate.

[BLI snowman]

Silly to talk about picking just one since it represents a situation that wouldn’t happen in reality. This is dumbing down pretty rapidly. Starting to get flashbacks to Phil’s 45 degree rain versus 120 degree heat all year debate.

 

Tim seems to think that a near record warm and dry May and low snowpack issues being exacerbated are somehow mutually exclusive. 

[TT-SEA]

The trees are currently stressed more by the unprecedentedly sustained heat over several consecutive summers than they are by the lack of rain in a given spring. Runoff is very important for soil moisture though, and that is simply not a matter of debate.

Runoff is very important for water supply. But its not going to water your lawn and trees in Portland unless you use a hose. Rain will do that though.

[TT-SEA]

Tim seems to think that a near record warm and dry May and low snowpack issues being exacerbated are somehow mutually exclusive.

3 or 4 inches of warm, humid, snowpack-destroying rain in May sure would have been nice... it would have helped with the current tree stress situation right now.

 

Jesse specifically said he would gladly take some high dewpoint rain in May and June. Mountain snow be damned... just give the trees some water!

[BLI snowman]

Runoff is very important for water supply. But its not going to water your lawn and trees in Portland unless you use a hose. Rain will do that though.

 

It actually can, since runoff, streamflow, and groundwater are pretty directly linked together.

[BLI snowman]

3 or 4 inches of warm, humid, snowpack-destroying rain in May sure would have been nice... it would have helped with the current tree stress situation right now.

 

Jesse specifically said he would gladly take some high dewpoint rain in May and June. Mountain snow be damned... just give the trees some water!

 

Got'im!!

[TT-SEA]

It actually can, since runoff, streamflow, and groundwater are pretty directly linked together.

I just looked it up... found a geological study on Tacoma and it said their groundwater there is almost entirely recharged by local precipitation and the mountain snowpack runoff almost entirely ends up in the Puget Sound. I need to do some more research tomorrow.

 

It said the runoff is critical for water supply if captured but basically has no effect on groundwater supply.

[weatherfan2012]

Lol GFS..stalls out and dumps 100” of rain.

Yeah..not gonna happen.

more like goofeeessss :lol:

[BLI snowman]

I just looked it up... found a geological study on Tacoma and it said their groundwater there is almost entirely recharged by local precipitation and the mountain snowpack runoff almost entirely ends up in the Puget Sound. I need to do some more research tomorrow.

 

It said the runoff is critical for water supply if captured but basically has no effect on groundwater supply.

 

Groundwater recharge is pretty widely understood to be derived at least in part from snowmelt as well as streams and lakes. I doubt Tacoma is dramatically different from most places in that regard. Good snowpack is very beneficial.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z ECMWF for Thursday at 2 p.m. EDT...

 

EURO still going with a Wilmington landfall and dumps a ton of rain.

 

Last night's 00z high-resolution HWRF also showed landfall in the Carolinas.

 

Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus

 

"Just in: The overnight high-res HWRF (00Z) is spot-on with the latest @NHC_Atlantic official forecast for Hurricane #Florence.

 

This is going to be a monster hurricane."

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/143hxdi.jpg

[Jesse]

Almost feel like taking a road trip to Gray’s Harbor county today just to see some real rain.

[TT-SEA]

Groundwater recharge is pretty widely understood to be derived at least in part from snowmelt as well as streams and lakes. I doubt Tacoma is dramatically different from most places in that regard. Good snowpack is very beneficial.

 

 

No sh*t... and puppies are cute!    Snowpack is great for stream flow and lakes and water supply and salmon and the ecosystem.   

 

But what happened in in January is irrelevant to the situation down there right now.    And even there... you were doing fine in the middle of April.  But the unusually long and hot dry season screwed it up.     

 

You problem is not this past winter and some below normal months... its from April 15th forward.    And previous hot, dry summers stressing the trees.  

 

Here was the situation in April:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/deluge.html

 

"Washington has enough.  More than enough. Our snowpack is above normal.  Our reservoirs are full.  Our rivers are running high.  Our soil moisture is high."

 

Mt. Hood snowpack is now at it's peak for the season and above average for this date. 107% relative to avg. Willamette has rebounded to 91% of average.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The trees are currently stressed more by the unprecedentedly sustained heat over several consecutive summers than they are by the lack of rain in a given spring. Runoff is very important for soil moisture though, and that is simply not a matter of debate.

Yes. The people monitoring the western red cedar die off on southern Vancouver Island agree. It is the consecutive hot dry summers that are the issue.

[Jesse]

Yes. The people monitoring the western red cedar die off on southern Vancouver Island agree. It is the consecutive hot dry summers that are the issue.

I figure they are waterlogged by the consecutive wettest years ever or whatever.

[Jesse]

The cedar die off is noticeable around here as well. One of the worst spots locally is around the north end of the Glenn Jackson as you enter Washington. Used to be some lovely groves of cedar and big leaf maple around there. Now it’s a mess of brown, dying cedars and shriveling maple trees.

[TT-SEA]

I figure they are waterlogged by the consecutive wettest years ever or whatever.

 

Nope.   That is my point.   Even very wet rainy seasons and good snowpack can't overcome unusually hot and dry summers that start in the middle of April.   We have proven that recently.

 

The problem in Portland is not below normal rainfall in January... because the cup was basically full by the middle of April.   We had a good starting point.   The weather since then is the problem... and stress from previous summers that were similar.  

[Farmboy]

Almost feel like taking a road trip to Gray’s Harbor county today just to see some real rain.

Dude, you should really move up here, the climate would suit you a little better than the desert you currently live in.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning here... have to get out and mow the lawn before all the rain arrives later today.

 

[Jesse]

Nope. That is my point. Even very wet rainy seasons and good snowpack can't overcome unusually hot and dry summers that start in the middle of April. We have proven that recently.

 

The problem in Portland is not below normal rainfall in January... because the cup was basically full by the middle of April. We had a good starting point. The weather since then is the problem... and stress from previous summers that were similar.

It’s all part of a package deal that encompasses whatever shift our climate has seen the last half-decade +.

 

Pulling one part out and attempted to place sole blame upon it is silly, and just comes off as an attempt to downplay the bigger, overwhelmingly warm and dry picture.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, you should really move up here, the climate would suit you a little better than the desert you currently live in.

 

 

At the very least... he should start booking reservations there to see rain.   If it works like it does for me then he will end up cancelling every time because it will be pouring rain in Portland as well by time he plans to leave.  

[Jesse]

At the very least... he should start booking reservations there to see rain. If it works like it does for me then he will end up cancelling every time because it will be pouring rain in Portland as well by time he plans to leave.

I don’t have your evil powers, sadly.

[TT-SEA]

It’s all part of a package deal that encompasses whatever shift our climate has seen the last half-decade +.

 

Pulling one part out and attempted to place sole blame upon it is silly, and missing the bigger, overwhelmingly warm and dry picture.

 

You are generalizing even though I am making the same argument you have made many times.

 

Rainy season precipitation and snowpack have not really been the issue recently.   We have had some stellar years in that regard.  Record setting.  And even 2017-18 got there by the end with snowpack at or above normal in the southern WA and northern OR Cascades by the middle of April.

 

Snowpack is great for water supply and the eco-system in general... but it can't save you or the trees out your window from a long, hot summer.  

 

How does Iowa stay so lush green all summer without any mountains to save them?   

[Farmboy]

At the very least... he should start booking reservations there to see rain. If it works like it does for me then he will end up cancelling every time because it will be pouring rain in Portland as well by time he plans to leave.

If I was as in love with cool/wet weather as him, I would be looking for property somewhere along the central BC coast/Queen Charlotte Islands/SE Alaska region. It seems like he's way too far south and his unrealistic expectations are causing him a little discomfort... Just my 2 cents.

[TT-SEA]

If I was as in love with cool/wet weather as him, I would be looking for property somewhere along the central BC coast/Queen Charlotte Islands/SE Alaska region. It seems like he's way too far south and his unrealistic expectations are causing him a little discomfort...

 

 

Not really unrealistic... I think he is just lamenting the change in the summer climate in the area he grew up.     

 

It might become unrealistic if this is a permanent change... but that remains to be seen.

[Jesse]

If I was as in love with cool/wet weather as him, I would be looking for property somewhere along the central BC coast/Queen Charlotte Islands/SE Alaska region. It seems like he's way too far south and his unrealistic expectations are causing him a little discomfort...

Probably the most ironic thing I’ve read all week.

[ShawniganLake]

If I was as in love with cool/wet weather as him, I would be looking for property somewhere along the central BC coast/Queen Charlotte Islands/SE Alaska region. It seems like he's way too far south and his unrealistic expectations are causing him a little discomfort... Just my 2 cents.

Already 1” of rain in tofino today. That’s a wet place.

[Farmboy]

Not really unrealistic... I think he is just lamenting the change in the summer climate in the area he grew up.

 

It might become unrealistic if this is a permanent change... but that remains to be seen.

As you drive south on I-5, you can tell by the vegetation as it becomes more highlighted by oaks/scrub-type vegetation that incursions by dry periods do occur, especially as you get closer to the California border. Records have only been kept, what 140 years? So there's really no way to know the frequency of occurrences of dry periods other than the clues we get from local fauna.. Willamette valley is just close in proximity to areas classified as semi-arid.

[Jesse]

As you drive south on I-5, you can tell by the vegetation as it becomes more highlighted by oaks/scrub-type vegetation that incursions by dry periods do occur, especially as you get closer to the California border. Records have only been kept, what 140 years? So there's really no way to know the frequency of occurrences of dry periods other than the clues we get from local fauna..

We live over 300 miles from the California border. There are significant stands of Garry Oak well into southern Vancouver Island. I think the word you are looking for is flora.

[Farmboy]

We live over 300 miles from the California border. There are significant stands of Garry Oak well into southern Vancouver Island. I think the word you are looking for is flora.

My point is you are closer to areas classified as semi-arid, so it shouldn't be any big surprise to see dry periods from time to time.

[Farmboy]

We live over 300 miles from the California border. There are significant stands of Garry Oak well into southern Vancouver Island. I think the word you are looking for is flora.

Yeah, but those areas become less frequent and only suited to the drier microclimates in which they reside.

[Jesse]

My point is you are closer to areas classified as semi-arid, so it shouldn't be any big surprise to see dry periods from time to time.

Strange coming from someone who seems continually surprised at weather that actually matches our last century and a half of climo.

[Jesse]

Yeah, but those areas become less frequent and only suited to the drier microclimates in which they reside.

There seem to be more up around Victoria and in the San Juans/NE Olympic peninsula than there are down here. The Olympic rain shadow is a powerful thing.

[BLI snowman]

No sh*t... and puppies are cute!    Snowpack is great for stream flow and lakes and water supply and salmon and the ecosystem.   

 

But what happened in in January is irrelevant to the situation down there right now.    And even there... you were doing fine in the middle of April.  But the unusually long and hot dry season screwed it up.     

 

You problem is not this past winter and some below normal months... its from April 15th forward.    And previous hot, dry summers stressing the trees.  

 

Here was the situation in April:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/deluge.html

 

"Washington has enough.  More than enough. Our snowpack is above normal.  Our reservoirs are full.  Our rivers are running high.  Our soil moisture is high."

 

Nope, the problem is collective. It also wasn't a snowy or wet enough winter to withstand what we've seen since. Pretty straightforward. Oregon and Southern WA did not have "more than enough".

 

So desperate to get the last word....

[Farmboy]

There seem to be more up around Victoria and in the San Juans/NE Olympic peninsula than there are down here. The Olympic rain shadow is a powerful thing.

Yeah, and the Willamette valley is somewhat shadowed by the coast range AND it is further south, so that's 2 things working against your weather preferences right there.

[ShawniganLake]

There seem to be more up around Victoria and in the San Juans/NE Olympic peninsula than there are down here. The Olympic rain shadow is a powerful thing.

There are lots in the Cowicham valley here. They are easy to spot right now. They are the brown patches on the hillsides.

[Jesse]

Yeah, and the Willamette valley is somewhat shadowed by the coast range AND it is further south, so that's 2 things working against your weather preferences right there.

I don’t think you are even comprehending my replies at this point.