September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

12Z ECMWF says we get into the action starting around 9 or 10 p.m. tonight.

 

I think that's a bit too late. Showers already into Port Townsend. Clouds are building here.

[Jesse]

You sure like keeping yourself entertained manipulating everyone's quotes!

Seemed like a nice cap off to the completely nonsensical debate we’ve been having. I don’t generally make a habit of it.

[TT-SEA]

I think that's a bit too late. Showers already into Port Townsend. Clouds are building here.

This front and the satellite look very much like Friday at the same time.

 

ECMWF shows some precip in the Cascades late this afternoon but the main frontal band waits until after dark to move into the Seattle area.

[Geos]

Wunderground saying Florence could be the Harvey of the East Coast...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Expected-Rapidly-Intensify-Serious-Rainfall-Threat-US-East-Coast?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

[Farmboy]

You're right, Portland and other cherry picked locations were actually semi-arid until 1870 or so.

I never said the Willamette valley was semi arid, I said that it was close in proximity to areas that are...

[Jesse]

F*ck this place.

I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting.

 

Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place.

[Phil]

The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there.

 

Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell.

[snow_wizard]

850s drop to 3 on the 12z GFS ensemble.  That's getting pretty nippy.

[BLI snowman]

I never said the Willamette valley was semi arid, I said that it was close in proximity to areas that are...

 

Except it isn't. Certainly not any closer than the Puget Sound lowlands.

[Deweydog]

I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting.

 

Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place.

Aren't you moving ASAP?

 

It's not love it AND leave it...

[snow_wizard]

I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting.

 

Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place.

 

As I mentioned the other day I think this whacko ENSO regime we are in is probably responsible (at least in part) for these consistently hot summers lately.  We have been in a rut of summer El Nino head fakes or at least spikes to the warmest anomalies of the year during the summer for a while now.  It's fascinating how autumn, winter, and spring have shown no sign of the consistent warmth that summer has displayed.  At this point I think this month has a good chance of finishing on the cool side of normal.

[Blizzard777]

F*ck this place.

Alaska is going to be the next Florida by the end of the century.”

[Deweydog]

850s drop to 3 on the 12z GFS ensemble. That's getting pretty nippy.

Stick to the drought, plz.

[Jesse]

Aren't you moving ASAP?

 

It's not love it AND leave it...

This will always be my home. Even if short term career or grad school related moves become necessary. But nothing is set in stone.

[Phil]

You're right, Portland and other cherry picked locations were actually semi-arid until 1870 or so.

Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW.

 

There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena).

 

Moral of the story: it could be worse.

[BLI snowman]

Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW.

 

There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena).

 

Moral of the story: it could be worse.

 

Renton, WA was extremely lush the entire time, though.

[Geos]

The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there.

 

Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell.

 

We're out of range for the 12km NAM still, but you can see it is favoring the more southern route like the EURO.

[Jesse]

Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW.

 

There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena).

 

Moral of the story: it could be worse.

I think the moral of the story is that it could never be worse than what it is doing at dca RIGHT NOW.

[Deweydog]

This will always be my home. Even if short term career or grad school related moves become necessary. But nothing is set in stone.

Well we'll welcome you back with open arms or at least some dead branches.

 

#it'llbeworsebythen

[Jesse]

Well we'll welcome you back with open arms or at least some dead branches.

 

#it'llbeworsebythen

#stopbeingsodramatic

[Farmboy]

Renton, WA was extremely lush the entire time, though.

Are you really in Blythe? Love that area. I'm thinking of going to Quartzsite this winter.

[Deweydog]

Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW.

 

There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena).

 

Moral of the story: it could be worse.

You're gonna pay for this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there.

 

Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell.

It takes the absolute worst possible track for Wilmington Metro. Looks like landfall is just to the west of Wilmington on Bald Head Island. It would bring tremendous storm surge up the Cape Fear River.

[ShawniganLake]

Since Tim is probably mowing his lawn, I will post this.

 

[BLI snowman]

Are you really in Blythe? Love that area. I'm thinking of going to Quartzsite this winter.

 

Quartzsite is kind of eh. A bit wetter than Blythe and Yuma. Also why I avoid Phoenix.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day so far...

 

[MossMan]

Gusty out. Rains are coming again.

[Phil]

I think the moral of the story is that it could never be worse than what it is doing at dca RIGHT NOW.

Glass houses and stones.

 

Lots of stones.

[Jesse]

Glass houses and stones.

 

Lots of stones.

This forum is kind of like a glass apartment complex nextdoor to a quarry.

[MossMan]

Rain and wind!

[luminen]

Gorgeous day so far...

 

 

Looks nice.

 

It's been completely wet here since yesterday morning and continues to rain as we speak.

[Jesse]

Big improvements on the Euro days 5-8.

[TT-SEA]

75 and mostly sunny here.. yardwork done.

 

Time to watch some football.

[MossMan]

75 and mostly sunny here.. yardwork done.

 

Time to watch some football.

63 and raining here. Been watching football all day.

[ShawniganLake]

58F with a little light rain at times.

 

Nice to see the patriots start the season with a win.

[Blizzard777]

76 and breezy

To lazy today to do yard work

Football as well

[Geos]

It takes the absolute worst possible track for Wilmington Metro. Looks like landfall is just to the west of Wilmington on Bald Head Island. It would bring tremendous storm surge up the Cape Fear River. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090912_99_480_149.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090912_102_480_149.png

 

Yeah it is a really bad track for them. Downtown Wilmington is kind of on a hill over 30' amsl, but most of the city is under that. 

[Geos]

Gusty out. Rains are coming again.

 

Same here. Breeze feels good. 72 currently. Bit warmer than I expected today.

[TT-SEA]

76 and breezy

To lazy today to do yard work

Football as well

76 here as well... 77 in North Bend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

69 and sunny here.