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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


TigerWoodsLibido

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Can't wait for some posters to claim its been a wet month.

 

 

It might well end up that way up here... lots of rain ahead.

 

We will make that claim if its reality in our area up here.  We don't live in Oregon.   Weather is different in different places!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like SLE broke their streak.

Looks like the weather station here didn't register any rainfall last night. Wow. 15 miles from Salem and we have nada so far. Looks like a lot of the south valley missed out too.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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47 here this morning. Almost considered closing the bedroom windows.

 

Nah, I had my U of O fraternity window open when it was like 25F outside during the Arctic Blast of...Jan 2007?? Details are fuzzy for a handful of reasons.  Needless to say it was nice to eat ice cream in the room without it melting.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Nah, I had my U of O fraternity window open when it was like 25F outside during the Arctic Blast of...Jan 2007?? Details are fuzzy for a handful of reasons.  Needless to say it was nice to eat ice cream in the room without it melting.

 

Having the window open at 25 - that's hardcore!

:lol:

 

I'll keep a window open down to about 40. But if it is a damp 40 then I shut it before then. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Having the window open at 25 - that's hardcore!

:lol:

 

I'll keep a window open down to about 40. But if it is a damp 40 then I shut it before then. 

 

I used to do in home care for an elderly gentleman. He always slept with his window open and a fan on, this did not change during December 2008. :)

 

Except he didn't want his pipes to freeze, so he made sure to run the heat full blast. Wasn't good for his electric bill. I convinced him to close his window every night before I left during that cold snap, but in the morning it would be open. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the convergence zone will be active this week in Snohomish and Skagit Counties.

 

nam3km_apcpn_nwus_20.png

Going to be very wet...even though everyone south of Olympia will not believe me and will tell me my trees are all dead.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12z GFS stalls Florence off cape Hatteras, 902mb at hour 150.

 

Stalls right over the Gulf Stream - not good. Won't be anything left of the outer banks in that area if that happens.

 

Bottoms at 900 mb before running inland late Sunday into early Monday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_21.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Stalls right over the Gulf Stream - not good. Won't be anything left of the outer banks in that area if that happens.

 

Bottoms at 900 mb before running inland late Sunday into early Monday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_21.png

What is the mechanism responsible for driving these wild scenarios being depicted? The ridge to the north?

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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0.13" this morning!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What is the mechanism responsible for driving these wild scenarios being depicted? The ridge to the north?

 

Yeah largely. Kind of what happened in the models with Sandy.

 

Stupid GFS stalled out at 180.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0.13" this morning!

 

Congrats man!! Still nada here. Let's see how much longer we can go.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Wow, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane again.

 

Eric Holthaus@EricHolthaus

“NHC Update, 11am: Hurricane #Florence —a tropical storm just 24 hrs ago—is now a major hurricane.

 

A stunning burst of rapid intensification has created one of the biggest meteorological threats to the East Coast in recorded history.

 

All signs point to landfall in NC as a Cat 4.

 

Hurricane #Florence is already a monster—and will continue getting stronger, traversing some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean until landfall in North Carolina on Thursday.

 

Florence is on track to become the strongest East Coast landfall (N of FL) in recorded history.

 

After its landfall, our best weather models continue to show an abject flooding catastrophe for North Carolina and Virginia.

 

As much as 48 inches of rain could fall. For perspective, that's almost *double* the previous all-time record for an East Coast hurricane.

 

Unfathomable.“

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1039170101357043712

 

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Weather models initialized at 12z perhaps missed the burst of rapid intensification -- or will too slowly ramp up to the observed Category 4 pressures (943-947 mb)

The tracks from the reliable models e.g. UKMET and ECMWF remain centered on a landfall in the Carolinas …

 

 

 

Another GFS model fail -- hyper-intensity due to lack of ocean coupling and poor "microphysics" causes garbage hurricane forecasts.
This afternoon's forecast is a "toss it" already.

The much more reliable UKMET and European model forecasts arrive in the next 2-hours.

florence.jpg

 

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Wow, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane again.

 

Eric Holthaus@EricHolthaus

“NHC Update, 11am: Hurricane #Florence —a tropical storm just 24 hrs ago—is now a major hurricane.

 

A stunning burst of rapid intensification has created one of the biggest meteorological threats to the East Coast in recorded history.

 

All signs point to landfall in NC as a Cat 4.

 

Hurricane #Florence is already a monster—and will continue getting stronger, traversing some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean until landfall in North Carolina on Thursday.

 

Florence is on track to become the strongest East Coast landfall (N of FL) in recorded history.

 

After its landfall, our best weather models continue to show an abject flooding catastrophe for North Carolina and Virginia.

 

As much as 48 inches of rain could fall. For perspective, that's almost *double* the previous all-time record for an East Coast hurricane.

 

Unfathomable.“

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1039170101357043712

 

 

That intensification is incredible. 

 

On the other side of the continent...

 

GFS gives western King County a good bit of rain through Sunday morning.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_25.png

 

CMC is pretty close.

 

gem_apcpn_nwus_27.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That intensification is incredible.

 

On the other side of the continent...

 

GFS gives western King County a good bit of rain through Sunday morning.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_25.png

 

CMC is pretty close.

 

gem_apcpn_nwus_27.png

Yep...will probably bring the jetski home this week...it’s over.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'm glad we're finally going to get some good rain.

 

I really doubt NW Oregon is going to get that much rain this week. Hope I am wrong.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going to be very wet...even though everyone south of Olympia will not believe me and will tell me my trees are all dead.

Amazing how your area continues to get near normal rainfall when everywhere else on the west side is drier than normal. If the GFS verified thru day 16 here. We would still be below average rainfall for September with a few days left.

 

And good try. But nobody said your trees are dead.

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12Z ECMWF goes crazy with the system on Friday.

 

Maps pls for both states if there's meaningful precip in the WV.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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A Cat 4 or 5 landfall still isn't at all likely with climo. Carolinas haven't even had a Cat 3 since 1996.

True, but climo might not be useful in highly anomalous situations like this. The SSTs/OHC are near record levels right now, and shear is near record lows for any cyclone path this far north, under the exceptionally powerful ridge. So does weighing climo actually help or hurt?

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The ECMWF and UKMET (and FV3-GFS) are right on top of one another with the track..all between Wilmington and Cape Fear as a Category 4 storm.

 

As modeled, today and tomorrow are the best days for folks in coastal NC to prepare for impact..conditions start going downhill on Wednesday as winds shift to the ENE and seas build, with tropical storm conditions arriving early Thursday, and hurricane conditions arriving late Thursday.

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A shower!!! It's raining!!! Streak is broken!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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