September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Dumping buckets currently!

[Tyler Mode]

0.43" for today!  So nice to have some wetting rains finally.

[Geos]

Convection still going up by Granite Falls and just east of Tim - even at this hour.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With the 0.13" of rain today, high humidity and temps in the 50s I would be comfortable with a small fire in the yard tonight, but I'd probably get cited by the local fire depart so I will refrain. If this happens though I will probably be good to go a week from today.

 

[Phil]

Lol GooFuS.

 

Can’t decide where to landfall, so it rides the entire coast from Hatteras to Myrtle Beach.

[TT-SEA]

The change in the models today for later in the week is pretty amazing given that its only 5 days out.  

 

Now the 00Z GFS is digging the Friday system further offshore than the 12Z ECMWF and its much drier that day.    The real rain arrives Saturday on the new run.

 

Look at the change from the 12Z run...

 

12Z run for Saturday:

 

 

And now the 00Z run:

 

[Dave]

Looks like we scored .02 at KEUG, which officially ends the rainless streak. Of course, nothing fell at my location in town.

[MossMan]

Thunder! Torrential downpours!

[Timmy]

The 00z gfs looks a lot more wetter for us folks down here

[Timmy]

With the 0.13" of rain today, high humidity and temps in the 50s I would be comfortable with a small fire in the yard tonight, but I'd probably get cited by the local fire depart so I will refrain. If this happens though I will probably be good to go a week from today.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018091100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png[/ig]

Im about to burn my cardboard I have been storing all summer tomorrow!

[Esquimalt]

Some awesome fall systems coming thru at hour 262+ on the GFS!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Edit: Not a total cave yet, but that was a major move towards the ECMWF/UKMET solution.

 

Very early in the run too (big swing inside 36hrs..red flag that the GFS was/is incorrect with the more poleward solution).

Here's what the 00z UKMET shows. Looks like landfall at Wilmington. Then it tracks through NC before heading into the Appalachian mountains.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/25yyveb.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still not that wet down here over the next couple weeks, but probably enough rain to start a green up. Much wetter in W. Washington. Kind of a typical seasonal progression occurring this year.

[Perturbed Member]

 

Not too bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem somehow ended up with a high of 76 today. Talk about overachieving. A +3 departure on the day. 76/58. Average is 79/50.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A whole .02 from that brief cell that came over late morning but it's enough to break the streak.  Would really love to see some 2013-style September storms that drop some good totals here and hopefully correlate to low level snow at some point from Dec-Feb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A whole .02 from that brief cell that came over late morning but it's enough to break the streak.  Would really love to see some 2013-style September storms that drop some good totals here and hopefully correlate to low level snow at some point from Dec-Feb.

 

Well September 2013 was the wettest September on record by a large margin. Kind of an August 1968 type anomaly locally. I remember the September 5th event which dropped about 3.5" of rain up here an almost 2" in Salem. Pretty incredible. Then the November like storms that arrived later in the month.

[Front Ranger]

Given the analogs that won out for summer, no surprise that September is turning out much cooler/seasonal.

[Tyler Mode]

Can't see much yet, but judging by the cam from Camp Muir (10,000') on Mt. Rainier snow fell down to roughly 8,000'.

[Tyler Mode]

I noticed in my weather records for Battle Ground that September 11th has the highest average high of any day of the month (by several degrees).  It's hit 90+ on 4 out of the last 7 years out here.

 

I went back and looked at my weather records for my Vancouver station (graph) and you can see the same warm spike on September 11th, even after 22 years of record there. 

 

Today is sure to but a damper on the average temp.

[Jesse]

Looks like a decent batch of showers heading for the metro area this morning.

 

Hit 53 overnight with a mix of clearing and light rain showers at times. Pretty fallish.

[FroYoBro]

A decent number of rain showers are about to train through this area. Woohoo!

[MossMan]

We must have approached an inch of rain just last night...it was a wet one!

[Farmboy]

It's so wet here, you almost need scuba gear to go outside.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like there are some decent showers eager to get over the coast range. Almost here.

[Blizzard777]

Light rain Tigard

[Blizzard777]

Hopefully we get some rowdy showers with lightning later on

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are on pace for a fairly typical September. 

[Jesse]

Looks like we are on pace for a fairly typical September.

I’m drowning!!

[TT-SEA]

9/11 related memory... when the division of politics disappeared for a short while.    And he frickin nailed that pitch!  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjGcCI9ByWw

[Winterdog]

We must have approached an inch of rain just last night...it was a wet one!

Indeed!  I had 1.05" here and 1.82" since Saturday.  It looks like more on the way.

[Esquimalt]

Hurricane Florence is looking weaker than on previous runs on the 12Z GFS.  It appears though that the rain is heavier on this model and it does a little circle in the coastal Carolinas so flooding will be very severe.  

[Phil]

The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF.

 

What a terrible model.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hurricane Florence is looking weaker than on previous runs on the 12Z GFS. It appears though that the rain is heavier on this model and it does a little circle in the coastal Carolinas so flooding will be very severe.

The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF.

 

What a terrible model.

Last nights 00z EURO showed it making landfall on Bald Head Island then basically just stalling. Close to 4 feet of rain for Wilmington. It will be interesting to see what the 12z will show.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2uhrajl.jpg

[Farmboy]

Mildly entertaining watching the migration of colder air from Canada into Alaska on the longer range 12z GFS...

[Jesse]

Radar looking good.

[Jesse]

The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF.

 

What a terrible model.

Probably no coincidence that the GFS also surrended to the Euro with regard to the deeper weekend trough out here.

 

As sad as it is, I have definitely noticed a correlation between intense landfalling hurricanes along the eastern seaboard and strong early season troughing out here. I’m guessing it has something to do with the strength of the Bermuda high and associated teleconnections.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS warning everyone to be ready to get in your tornado shelter.

 

"Given some spin in the mid-levels and local terrain-guided shear in

the lower levels, would not be surprised if we get a funnel cloud
report or two over the coming days. This is one of the patterns
favorable for funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes in our area,
assuming there are enough sunbreaks to produce sufficient 0-1 km or
0-2 km lapse rates. As mentioned above, cloud cover will be a
limiting factor and may hold convection from getting vigorous enough
to really tap into the shear profile. Vigorous showers or
thunderstorms may also produce brief, small hail the next few days as
the air mass cools aloft."

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF slows down Florence even more right as it approaches the NC coast.  

 

It gets right to the coastline and completely stops.  

 

Here is Friday morning:

 

 

And then Friday evening:

 

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF slows down Florence even more right as it approaches the NC coast.

 

It gets right to the coastline and completely stops.

 

Here is Friday morning:

 

 

And then Friday evening:

 

Was it the GFS that had been the most consistent in showing this thing stalling along the coast?