Jesse Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Whew!! The 00Z EPS did not show the ridge breaking down at all through day 15. What if it does not start raining every day before November? What will we do? I've noticed the EPS tends to hug persistence, especially out in the long range. Probably going to rain again this month. #sorrynotsorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 My God, is there anything you're NOT an eloquent expert on?Law. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Is there no way to build an anemometer that would survive winds of this speed? It seems like it would be interesting if they could have some sort of hardy-portable device that could take a day to set up. They could put it directly in the path of the eye before the storm hits, connect it up to some sort of website from which you could monitor the gusts, and would get some unique science data out of it.Kind of a testament to the amount of energy contained in 100+ mph sustained winds. Most I've been "out" in is probably between 60-70 mph during the 2007 coastal storm. It seriously kicks your survival instincts in gear. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 I've noticed the EPS tends to hug persistence, especially out in the long range. Probably going to rain again this month. #sorrynotsorry Probably will. Our lives depend on it! God knows it will not rain virtually all of November. This is a disaster unfolding if we have to wait any longer. Have not seen a rain drop here in 12 hours now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Kind of a testament to the amount of energy contained in 100+ mph sustained winds. Most I've been "out" in is probably between 60-70 mph during the 2007 coastal storm. It seriously kicks your survival instincts in gear. Have you not been to Crown Point during a strong gap wind event? I've probably experienced something close to 100mph there, especially near the steps. It can get downright scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Probably will. Our lives depend on it! God knows it will not rain virtually all of November. This is a disaster unfolding if we have to wait any longer. Have not seen a rain drop here in 12 hours now. Schtick to your day job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Not in terms of sustained winds, but in gusts they almost always translate to the ground somewhere. Andrew produced estimated gusts to 200mph, and the Labor Day hurricane produced gusts possibly higher than that.Yeah, sometimes you'll see isolated gusts match the air recon numbers, but it's pretty rare from what I've seen/read. Of course, winds over 150 mph are going to wipe out most sensors, so it's tough to get reliable ground readings that high anyhow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Have you been to Crown Point during a strong gap wind event. I've probably experienced something close to 100mph there, especially near the steps. It can get downright scary.I remember going up there in January 1996. Dumb. We went up in January 2009 and watched some idiot park downwind and have his car door blown into his left front quarter panel. There's also something to be said for having heavy rain associated with it. Adds to the doom instinct. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 I bet Jim Cantore has ridden the Abrams train to the storm a few times before. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Law.... I could teach you how to research and write up a decent brief in less than a week. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 I bet Jim Cantore has ridden the Abrams train to the storm a few times before.Rape culture during a category 5 landfall in 2018??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Is there no way to build an anemometer that would survive winds of this speed? It seems like it would be interesting if they could have some sort of hardy-portable device that could take a day to set up. They could put it directly in the path of the eye before the storm hits, connect it up to some sort of website from which you could monitor the gusts, and would get some unique science data out of it.I think Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton tried that one time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Yeah, sometimes you'll see isolated gusts match the air recon numbers, but it's pretty rare from what I've seen/read. Of course, winds over 150 mph are going to wipe out most sensors, so it's tough to get reliable ground readings that high anyhow.It’s rare to *record* them instrumentally. Usually there is either no anemometer at those locations, or the anemometers have broken. However it’s actually pretty common for those gusts to mix down in isolated locations. This is why the estimated gusts in reanalysis are almost always stronger than the highest instrumental readings on the ground. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wish we had video from inside the eye over land. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 I am sensing from my facebook feed tonight that my family and friends in Minnesota are REALLY sick of rain. I have seen at least 20 posts about it today... and this meme has come up 3 times already. I know this feeling! So many times I have felt just like that.. Ugh... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wish we had video from inside the eye over land. It missed the Panama City area by a few miles. Looks like almost no one lives in the area between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach, where the eyewall was focused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wish we had video from inside the eye over land.When's the last time we had a "clean" eyewall make landfall during the day? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 When's the last time we had a "clean" eyewall make landfall during the day? Some time in 1925, 1957, 1991, 2002, or 2014. Analog city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Heart stopping picture from Tyndall AFB. 6 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 That eye is still perfect even entirely over land. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Amazing how it achieved its maximum intensity after making landfall. It was about to go all labor-day-hurricane on us. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 The Booze Express has been destroyed! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wasn’t the last Cat5 landfall Andrew in 1992? Also a +ENSO year with a very strong +NAO summer? #Analog Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wasn’t the last Cat5 landfall Andrew in 1992? Also a +ENSO year with a very strong +NAO summer? #AnalogWas just thinking that. Not a great solar match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 The Booze Express has been destroyed!Funny seeing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Was just thinking that. Not a great solar match.Yeah, plus the reasons for the +NAO/+NAM that summer we’re different from this year. But..still. Gonna keep an eye on it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Yeah, plus the reasons for the +NAO/+NAM that summer we’re different from this year. But..still. Gonna keep an eye on it. Just an absolutely lovely winter here. So many dry days and many with cold air in place. December was nice... and then we had 45 days without precipitation here in January and February. That is crazy nice. March was really nice too. Then it all went to sh*t in April. Although we probably could avoid a summer like 1993 without the volcanic influence this time around. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just an absolutely lovely winter here. So many dry days and many with cold air in place. December was nice... and then we had 45 days without precipitation here in January and February. That is crazy nice. March was really nice too. Then it all went to sh*t in April. Although we probably could avoid a summer like 1993 without the volcanic influence this time around. July 1993 would have been cold in this region regardless of Pinatubo erupting in June 1991 Also, you would have lost power and likely whined a bunch following the Inauguration Day Windstorm. Then whined clear on through August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Now it's just going to be a matter of how long Michael can remain a Major Hurricane, then a hurricane as it heads into Georgia overnight. It's going to be one long night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 July 1993 would have been cold in this region regardless of Pinatubo erupting in June 1991 Oh no!!! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 I also remember crazy flooding in San Diego in early 1993. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 In other news... The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty transitory ridge. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 12Z ECMWF just scrapes us with troughing by day 10... but is about to put up another ridge right after that if it were to verify. We will see what the EPS says in the 10-15 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 In other news... The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty transitory ridge.Oh no!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 In other news... The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty transitory ridge.Just 10 short days! Blink and you will miss it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just 10 short days! Blink and you will miss it. The point was if you run the loop the ridge never really sets up shop. Transitory. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 The point was if you run the loop the ridge never really sets up shop. Transitory.Transitory is 1-2 days... not 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Yeah........... I don't think I'd call that a transitory ridge. If that's the case we just came out of a very transitory summer. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Oh no!!! Definitely a warm month if not for some 12,000 mile away volcano eruption 25 months earlier http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0712.phphttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0717.phphttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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