October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Taking advantage of this nice weather to catch some fish on my lunch break!

 

 

You look vaguely like Mark Nelsen here.

[TT-SEA]

But does it stick around for a week afterwards?

 

We have a hard time maintaining snowcover with temps in the single digits, let alone 35*F.

 

Troll.

 

That November snow was completely gone the next day.     And mostly gone the day that I took the picture.

 

You are probably referring to the April 1st event here... which (for the millionth time) was actually 5 or 6 inches of graupel.    And that did make it through the next day and finally was gone the following day.    I took pictures at numerous stages of the melt to show what was happening.    A thick layer of packed ice and graupel has more staying power than soft snow.  It just does... even if you don't believe it.   

 

Also dewpoint has a huge effect on the melting process.   40 degrees with a dewpoint of 20 can keep snow around in the shaded areas for days.   We saw that in January of 2014.    But yet snow melts in no time at 35 degrees with a dewpoint of 35 with a little wind.   

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS is insistent on keeping the ridge over us through day 10.

 

C2DC8D7B-962C-47C4-A2F2-0672680DD6FE.jpeg

 

 

Actually the 12Z EPS keeps the ridge solidly over us through day 15.  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://www.weather.gov/media/pdt/Sep2018.pdf

[TT-SEA]

Monroe, the Golden GOD of W. Wa stations hit 26 during that cold snap, and they are 1000' lower than Tim. Conveniently Snoqualmie falls just keeps precip and snowfall data.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00455525&year=2017&month=11&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

 

Luckily there is a station in the valley here which does keep temperature records... and it did not go below freezing with the November event.   Coldest temp was 32.2 degrees.  The first freeze in the valley last year was on December 5th.    Same up here... as I reported.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Luckily there is a station in the valley here which does keep temperature records... and it did not go below freezing with the November event.   Coldest temp was 32.2 degrees.   The first freeze in the valley last year was on December 5th.    Same up here... as I reported.

 

 

Did this station also receive accumulating snow?

[TT-SEA]

Did this station also receive accumulating snow?

Yes. I think we all had snow in this area.

 

Even Jim who also reported that it did not go below freezing at the time.

 

Same at SEA... measurable snow and did not go below freezing. Coldest temperature was 33 there.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

"Michael" will likely be retired.

 

Amazing how fast this evolved.

Yeah, it just got upgraded to a category 3 now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Taking advantage of this nice weather to catch some fish on my lunch break!

 

Nice smallmouth.

[TT-SEA]

Correction... it did dip down to 30 in valley on Halloween morning last year.   I forgot about that.  We had a little east wind up here and it was in the mid-30s that morning.   The valley is typically colder than up here on a clear, calm night.   As is true in most places on Earth.    Cold air sinks.  

 

But it did not go below freezing with the early November snow event last year even down there.   The next freeze was on December 5th.  

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron gets a bad rap. He is nothing like Tim.

 

 

I think his point was that Jared likes to challenge data presented by anyone.    And he challenges me as well which is fine.  

 

Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him. 

[TT-SEA]

And I just checked Palmer (at 919 feet) and the coldest temp there during the November snow event was 32 degrees.

[Front Ranger]

Classic for warm ENSO.

 

Of course we also had cold in early November last year.

 

Yes, and cold in mid September-early October is not classic for warm ENSO...but that's what we've seen.

 

[TT-SEA]

Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him. 

 

 

I posted a snowfall map for you in the Mountain West thread.   

[Jesse]

Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him.

Nah, my comment was more about your tendency to start long kinda pointless debates.

[Front Ranger]

The best (worst) part of it is that the news outlets aren't fear-mongering it this time, so people will assume it's no big deal. This is going to be very bad, and Panama City Strong will become a thing.  Gonna be surreal to see one of the biggest party towns in the USA get ripped to shreds.

 

We definitely saw that in 2005.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, and cold in mid September-early October is not classic for warm ENSO...but that's what we've seen.

 

30dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Yep... its been cold and wet around here overall for over a month now.     A warmer, drier spell is probably in order to balance it out.   I wonder if that will show up in the models soon?   

[Front Ranger]

I posted a snowfall map for you in the Mountain West thread.   

 

Appreciated! Looks like all models are onboard. 

[Front Ranger]

Nah, my comment was more about your tendency to start long kinda pointless debates.

 

Whatever allows one to cry: "Help, I'm being FLATIRONED!" 

[Jesse]

Whatever allows one to cry: "Help, I'm being FLATIRONED!"

It’s happened to all of us at some point.

 

#metoo

[Esquimalt]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? 

 

91-92

97-98

02-03

14-15

[Esquimalt]

91-92

97-98

02-03

14-15

I don't know about 91-92 because it was so volcanically active, but the others seem viable!  Phil, Tim, what about you?  

[TT-SEA]

I don't know about 91-92 because it was so volcanically active, but the others seem viable!  Phil, Tim, what about you?  

 

I have not spent any time looking at it yet... I will defer to Phil.   

[Front Ranger]

It’s happened to all of us at some point.

 

#metoo

 

Copouts are convenient.

[Front Ranger]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? 

 

1951-52

1968-69

1977-78

1994-95

2006-07

[MossMan]

1951-52

1968-69

1977-78

1994-95

2006-07

I will take a 06-07 repeat, and before my time but a 68-69 sounds good as well.

[TT-SEA]

It's funny that just a few hundred miles to the south, those "analogs" are kind of all over the place:

 

1951-52 - cool and wet

1968-69 - cool and very wet

1977-78 - warm and wet

1994-95 - warm and very wet

2006-07 - warm and driest on record

 

Going north makes a big difference.

 

As you know.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z shows 0.00" of rain here the next two and a half weeks.

[High Desert Mat!]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter?

1948-1949

1949-1950

1956-1957

1968-1969

1985-1986

1992-1993

2003-2004

2008-2009

2013-2014

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's funny that just a few hundred miles to the south, those "analogs" are kind of all over the place:

 

1951-52 - cool and wet

1968-69 - cool and very wet

1977-78 - warm and wet

1994-95 - warm and very wet

2006-07 - warm and driest on record

I distinctly remember a blast in 2007 where our frat walked from the Phi Psi house to 7-11 in t-shirts and shorts when it was like 15 degrees after some snow going in. So even those warm ones delivered some goodies.

[TT-SEA]

18z shows 0.00" of rain here the next two and a half weeks.

Nice! I bet we get double that amount up here.

[Deweydog]

Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st.

[Jesse]

Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st.

0.01 every day between now and the 31st.

[TT-SEA]

Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st.

 

 

I remember one year when my boys were younger we had like 2 inches of rain on Halloween and it stopped raining around 4:30 in the afternoon and was delightful and pleasantly warm and totally calm during the evening festivities.   

 

I also remember freezing our as$es off on a bone dry Halloween with a brisk east wind.

 

I preferred the rainy day scenario.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.01 every day between now and the 31st.

 

Hmmmmm

[Phil]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter?

Range of possibilities. These are the ones I’m looking at.

 

2014/15

2012/13 (extratropics)

2003/04

1994/95 (iffy)

1987/88

1986/87

1977/78 (old..use w/ caution).

[Phil]

I would avoid using any analogs before 1977.

 

Also, stay away from 1957/58, 1958/59, 1968/69, 1969/70, 1972/73, 1990/91, 1991/92, 2002/03, and 2006/07. These all have serious tropical-extratropical disconnects from 2018.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Range of possibilities. These are the ones I’m looking at.

 

2014/15

2012/13 (extratropics)

2003/04

1994/95 (iffy)

1987/88

1986/87

1977/78 (old..use w/ caution).

I was thinking 14-15 too. Cold shot in Nov and some snow for Washington and Central Oregon then blowtorch the rest of the way. Rats!

[Deweydog]

0.01 every day between now and the 31st.

Crisp morning hater!