October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Keeps getting extended.

 

[TT-SEA]

Well, I violated my own rule about engaging with trolls, and have suffered the consequences.

 

Maybe if no one engaged with the troll, the troll would go away?

 

I am not trolling.    

 

Everything stated is just a fact.    

 

Andrew said its hard to believe a dry spell is coming... I said that I would be surprised if a dry spell did not come about now considering how wet its been.     Nature seems to agree with me... so there is that.  

[Jesse]

Well, I violated my own rule about engaging with trolls, and have suffered the consequences.

 

Maybe if no one engaged with the troll, the troll would go away?

He’s not going anywhere, but there would probably be less in the way of pointless debates. Of course, there is still Flatiron.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He’s not going anywhere, but there would probably be less in the way of pointless debates. Of course, there is still Flatiron.

 

Flatiron gets a bad rap. He is nothing like Tim. 

 

Tim has always been one of my favorite posters on here. But the past few months he has been stuck on repeat. Posting variations of the same paragraph about 100X per day.

[TT-SEA]

Flatiron gets a bad rap. He is nothing like Tim. 

 

Tim has always been one of my favorite posters on here. But the past few months he has been stuck on repeat. Posting variations of the same paragraph about 100X per day.

 

I think his point was that Jared likes to challenge data presented by anyone.    And he challenges me as well which is fine.  

 

I am just providing some perspective today about why a dry spell has become very likely for much of western WA.    Unfortunately... a dry spell for western WA usually means a dry spell for OR as well.    I am not sure how to reconcile that reality.... because we are due for a break now.  

 

2018 continues to plug along just about normal or wetter than normal in some places up here (even SEA is only about 1 inch below normal for the year) and the wet and dry spells seem to be following a typical pattern.   For some reason... OR is not included this year.

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is another notch west for the weekend on the 12Z ECMWF.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Flatiron gets a bad rap. He is nothing like Tim.

 

Tim has always been one of my favorite posters on here. But the past few months he has been stuck on repeat. Posting variations of the same paragraph about 100X per day.

Sure, very different posters but often the same net result.

[TT-SEA]

I have this silly hope that maybe the slight westward trend of the ridge in the mid range will eventually spell some big changes in the long range, and we can avoid a 10-14 day death ridge. Probably won’t get that lucky , though.

 

 

We have seen that play out recently... could still happen.     

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is notch westward even on Tuesday per the 12Z ECMWF.

[seattleweatherguy]

Ridge is notch westward even on Tuesday per the 12Z ECMWF.

Will it make it warmer or more foggy

[MossMan]

Been very wet here since the second week of September. Picked up another half inch or so just last night.

[TT-SEA]

Will it make it warmer or more foggy

 

A little cooler... probably more ventilation and offshore flow so less fog.  

[Deweydog]

OMG! Tim! Am I right?

[ShawniganLake]

Nice day. Sunny skies and a north wind.

[Jesse]

Ridge moves over us in earnest by next Wednesday. I do like seeing this getting postponed a bit, but really it’s probably just postponing the inevitable.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day. Sunny skies and a north wind.

 

Jealous! 

 

Still drizzling here but its getting brighter.  

[Phil]

It's not easy getting to 30,000 posts.

 

I did a study. Here's how it breaks out:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pleasant 65F with a few clouds and maybe a light shower occurring in the coast range (Laurel Mtn & Mary's Peak) but that's taking all the moisture left. Should be cloudless in the next 24 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Ridge moves over us in earnest by next Wednesday. I do like seeing this getting postponed a bit, but really it’s probably just postponing the inevitable.

 

 

The ridge moving off to the east (as opposed to retrogression) is likely a much wetter scenario.   

[ShawniganLake]

I suspect this episode of ridging will break down just in time to see our typical January +PNA rebound.

[Phil]

Keeps getting extended.

 

FC0D0A24-FAB2-4513-856E-F7AA8CAFA7BD.png

Welcome to my life since May 1st. The weather has been stuck on repeat, much like Tim.

 

It’s about time things change..whatever that means.

[Jesse]

I suspect this episode of ridging will break down just in time to see our typical January +PNA rebound.

I always imagine someone from the Red Green Show narrating your posts.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah, hard to say at this point. Will be close.

Few things are more dangerous than a hurricane rapidly developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Michael could end up being a very big deal.

The 12z EURO has Michael making a direct landfall at Panama City right around sunset tomorrow. The time of day couldn't be any worse. Gonna be a long night until the sun rises on Thursday. This is going to be one for the ages.

[TT-SEA]

Pleasant 65F with a few clouds and maybe a light shower occurring in the coast range (Laurel Mtn & Mary's Peak) but that's taking all the moisture left. Should be cloudless in the next 24 hours.

 

Sunny trying to poke through the low clouds here now... only 54.

 

[Jesse]

Welcome to my life since May 1st. The weather has been stuck on repeat, much like Tim.

 

It’s about time things change..whatever that means.

Probably more ridging for us.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EURO has Michael making a direct landfall at Panama City right around sunset tomorrow. The time of day couldn't be any worse. Gonna be a long night until the sun rises on Thursday. This is going to be one for the ages. 

 

"Michael" will likely be retired.  

 

Amazing how fast this evolved.  

[BLI snowman]

I suspect this episode of ridging will break down just in time to see our typical January +PNA rebound.

Cold in early November.

[TT-SEA]

Cold in early November.

Classic for warm ENSO.

 

Of course we also had cold in early November last year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The best (worst) part of it is that the news outlets aren't fear-mongering it this time, so people will assume it's no big deal. This is going to be very bad, and Panama City Strong will become a thing.  Gonna be surreal to see one of the biggest party towns in the USA get ripped to shreds.

[ShawniganLake]

I always imagine someone from the Red Green Show narrating your posts.

Classic. Great duct tape sales resulted from that show.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Classic for warm ENSO.

 

Of course we also had cold in early November last year.

 

Meh, Eugene/Springfield was cool but nothing interesting. So when you say we, it must refer to areas north of PDX?

[TT-SEA]

Meh, Eugene/Springfield was cool but nothing interesting. So when you say we, it must refer to areas north of PDX?

 

We need to switch locations!  

 

We had lots of snow up here in early November last year.   Bellingham had like 5 inches.    

 

This was on 11/6/17 here:

 

[Jesse]

The great above freezing snowstorm of 2017. ️

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We need to switch locations!  

 

We had lots of snow up here in early November last year.   Bellingham had like 5 inches.    

 

This was on 11/6/17 here:

 

 

Not a surprise. Nov. event's are usually Washington-based. Dec 2013 is the opposite sort of thing.

[Kayla]

The great above freezing snowstorm of 2017. ️

 

To his defense, it does happen. Just happened here last week with similar snowfall amounts and temps mainly in the 32.6F-33.6F range. Just need high enough precip rates.

[Phil]

To his defense, it does happen. Just happened here last week with similar snowfall amounts and temps mainly in the 32.6F-33.6F range. Just need high enough precip rates.

But does it stick around for a week afterwards?

 

We have a hard time maintaining snowcover with temps in the single digits, let alone 35*F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monroe, the Golden GOD of W. Wa stations hit 26 during that cold snap, and they are 1000' lower than Tim. Conveniently Snoqualmie falls just keeps precip and snowfall data.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00455525&year=2017&month=11&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[Jesse]

The 12z EPS is insistent on keeping the ridge over us through day 10.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Taking advantage of this nice weather to catch some fish on my lunch break!