October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

You are going to feel silly when I point out you posted the averages. I just looked at PDX rainfall so far in 2018 a few days ago so I knew immediately these numbers were off...Here are the real numbers.

 

PDX - 16.79 

VUO - 16.81`

HIO -  15.85 

Mac - 19.10

Troutdale - 18.67

 

Salem is actually the I-5 station in NW Oregon which is closest to normal in 2018, interestingly. 

 

Yeah, I didn't re-check it just now but I was pretty sure that was the case. I've monitored Scappoose a lot since moving to Ridgefield and haven't noticed many big discrepancies. 

 

Tim did a nice job of highlighting the deficits down here, though! Almost  -13" at Troutdale and Scappoose is probably -15", although that station doesn't have long term averages.

[Jesse]

Haha! Tim’s clearly in the wrong again, but I think you guys are all goofy so I win!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am also itching for a good windstorm...Not many others here would agree though.

I agree... I also like a good wind event. It seems like it has been some time so the itch is pretty strong, just like I like my wind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was in Oklahoma for the past week. Beautiful fall weather, as it seems they always have this time of year. They have had a decent amount of rain recently. Everything was very green. Barely a hint of fall color. Really good to have the whole gang together...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Haha! Tim’s clearly in the wrong again, but I think you guys are all goofy so I win!

 

I didn't really want to enter this fray, but the numbers were so off and made such a case that was contrary to reality I had to say something. 

[Jesse]

I didn't really want to enter this fray, but the numbers were so off and made such a case that was contrary to reality I had to say something.

Yeah, sort of underscores the level of out of touch regarding the situation down here. Or anywhere outside of a 15 mile radius from North Bend, really.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, sort of underscores the level of out of touch regarding the situation down here. Or anywhere outside of a 15 mile radius from North Bend, really.

 

GFS ensembles look fairly climo. 

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles look fairly climo. 

 

****!!

[TT-SEA]

Wow... my mistake. Sorry about that.

 

It was early. Certainly not intentional because obviously it would be caught.

[Jesse]

What a stand up guy.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, sort of underscores the level of out of touch regarding the situation down here. Or anywhere outside of a 15 mile radius from North Bend, really.

Even SEA is only -2.73 for 2018.

 

So different up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow... my mistake. Sorry about that.

 

It was early. Certainly not intentional because obviously it would be caught.

 

We all make mistakes. 

[Jesse]

Clearing out a bit now. Should pretty easily make it into the mid-upper 60s today given the mild start.

 

Yesterday’s brief rain and 50s/low 40s spread was a nice taste of the autumn weather we have largely been deprived of thus far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clearing out a bit now. Should pretty easily make it into the mid-upper 60s today given the mind start.

 

Mild start...

 

Still socked in down here in Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowy Halloween for Front Ranger?

[BLI snowman]

Even SEA is only -2.73 for 2018.

 

So different up here.

 

Wet year there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is coming in wet for W. Washington and about average for Oregon in terms of rainfall. We are about to enter one of our wettest times of the year, so this is pretty run of the mill stuff we are looking at. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS is a solid run. 

[TT-SEA]

Wet year there.

Barely scratching the surface of balancing out the feet of rain above normal it was there from 2014-17. Not every year can be way above normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am encouraged we do not have an early season cold snap on the way, at least not yet. Given the ENSO we probably want to avoid anything major before 11/20. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I see now why you picked Scappoose.

 

Here are some other 2018 totals:

 

Portland - 23.85

Vancouver - 25.56

Hillsboro - 25.65

McMinnvile - 25.85

Troutdale - 31.09

 

 

In fact... there might be a problem with the Scappoose gauge since it is so different than other stations in the same area.

Monmouth and Springfield sadly don't keep official records, but I highly doubt either town is all that close to their averages.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am encouraged we do not have an early season cold snap on the way, at least not yet. Given the ENSO we probably want to avoid anything major before 11/20.

Indeed. Thanksgiving or later please. Don't want any early/mid-Nov Washington-based events. Best to save it for later.

[TT-SEA]

Wet year there.

 

 

SEA was 30.98 inches above normal cumulatively for the 2014-17 period.

 

SEA is 2.73 inches below normal for 2018 so far.

 

Just need another 28 inches below normal to balance out 2014-17!   

[BLI snowman]

1952 had 23.78" at SEA. 1953-present are collectively making up for this and working to balance the abnormality.

[Deweydog]

Was in Oklahoma for the past week. Beautiful fall weather, as it seems they always have this time of year. They have had a decent amount of rain recently. Everything was very green. Barely a hint of fall color. Really good to have the whole gang together...

 

That's a big chair.

[TT-SEA]

1952 had 23.78" at SEA. 1953-present are collectively making up for this and working to balance the abnormality.

 

 

Could be.

 

I am still coming to terms with the realization that SEA is only 28 inches above normal since the start of 2014.   

 

I had no idea how bad it has been in terms of drought up here.  

[BLI snowman]

Could be.

 

I am still coming to terms with the realization that SEA is only 28 inches above normal since the start of 2014.   

 

I had no idea how bad it has been in terms of drought up here.  

 

Definitely seems to have you in a panic this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a big chair.

 

Or maybe they are very small?

[wx_statman]

Quick (and random) shout out to the Great Coastal Gale of 2007. 

 

I'm working with NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis as part of my masters research. Out of curiosity, I checked the highest daily average 850-hpa wind speed at any of the grid cells covering North America (from 10 N to 60 N anyway). Time period is 1988-2017 which corresponds to my study period. 

 

The answer? 

 

107 mph @ grid cell 43.5 N, 125 W which is just off the central OR coast - on 12/3/2007. That's a 24-hour average @ 850! 

 

That also means that no hurricane or nor'easter produced winds this strong, for this long in the lower levels over the past 30 years in N. America.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely seems to have you in a panic this morning.

Serious stuff.

 

SEA should be at least one foot above normal every year or everything will die.

[Deweydog]

Quick (and random) shout out to the Great Coastal Gale of 2007.

 

I'm working with NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis as part of my masters research. Out of curiosity, I checked the highest daily average 850-hpa wind speed at any of the grid cells covering North America (from 10 N to 60 N anyway). Time period is 1988-2017 which corresponds to my study period.

 

The answer?

 

107 mph @ grid cell 43.5 N, 125 W which is just off the central OR coast - on 12/3/2007. That's a 24-hour average @ 850!

 

That also means that no hurricane or nor'easter produced winds this strong, for this long in the lower levels over the past 30 years in N. America.

That barrier jet was something that defied logic in some ways. Probably a 100 year set up.

[ShawniganLake]

Serious stuff.

 

SEA should be at least one foot above normal every year or everything will die.

Is this ridiculous back and forth ever going to end?

 

FWIW, if it rained 160” during the winter and basically nothing the rest of the year, a lot of native plants would die. Even with 4 times the normal yearly rainfall. That’s not hard to figure out.

[Front Ranger]

Snowy Halloween for Front Ranger?

 

Models have certainly moved that way this morning. The FV3 dumps 6-12" over the area. 

[Phil]

Anything fun looking in the models over the coming weeks or months? Itching for a windstorm here.

We already had one. And a freeze.

 

You shouldn’t have left!

[Geos]

Nice to have no fog this morning for once.

 

Round #1

 

 

Round 1 and 2

 

[Phil]

Quick (and random) shout out to the Great Coastal Gale of 2007.

 

I'm working with NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis as part of my masters research. Out of curiosity, I checked the highest daily average 850-hpa wind speed at any of the grid cells covering North America (from 10 N to 60 N anyway). Time period is 1988-2017 which corresponds to my study period.

 

The answer?

 

107 mph @ grid cell 43.5 N, 125 W which is just off the central OR coast - on 12/3/2007. That's a 24-hour average @ 850!

 

That also means that no hurricane or nor'easter produced winds this strong, for this long in the lower levels over the past 30 years in N. America.

Neat! I figured it’d be up near Alaska/BC.

 

By chance, how large are the grid cells? I suspect the wind maxima in nor’easters propagates poleward too quickly to register in a 24hr average.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice to have no fog this morning for once.

 

Round #1

 

 

Round 1 and 2

 

 

An inch of rain is going to feel so weird at this point and is going to clog so many drains. But we sure as shi+ need it.

[wx_statman]

Neat! I figured it’d be up near Alaska/BC.

 

By chance, how large are the grid cells? I suspect the wind maxima in nor’easters propagates poleward too quickly to register in a 24hr average.

 

I was surprised by that result as well. The grid cells are 0.5 by 0.625 degrees. Roughly ~55 km out our latitude. 

 

Interestingly, the highest 24 hr. wind speeds at 700, 500, and 250 hPa all occurred over the Gulf Stream offshore of New England. No surprise there I suppose. 

 

Incidentally, the 700 hPa max was during the March '93 superstorm.

[Phil]

I was surprised by that result as well. The grid cells are 0.5 by 0.625 degrees. Roughly ~55 km out our latitude.

 

Interestingly, the highest 24 hr. wind speeds at 700, 500, and 250 hPa all occurred over the Gulf Stream offshore of New England. No surprise there I suppose.

 

Incidentally, the 700 hPa max was during the March '93 superstorm.

Fascinating stuff. I’ll have to do some research tomorrow on that 2007 anomaly. Sounds like a sting jet type feature that must have had some spatial stability and sat there for a little while?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I know I keep saying it but I hope Rob is ok. Really miss the night shift.