October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Was nice to get this in the mail today.

 

[TT-SEA]

Many model runs originally focused the event on Thursday into Friday down in Oregon.

 

But the models have since come around to the proper solution which is to dump the heavy rain up in WA and specifically focus on King County.

 

This is God's plan.   We get all the rain now.      The rest of you are screwed.

 

[Esquimalt]

Many model runs originally focused the event on Thursday into Friday down in Oregon.

 

But the models have since come around to the proper solution which is to dump the heavy rain up in WA and specifically focus on King County.

 

This is God's plan.   We get all the rain now.      The rest of you are screwed.

 

 

shifts north, as usual.  by the time we get there wouldn't be surprised if it was hitting us here on VI.  

[MossMan]

Very wet evening!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still raining!!! Wet ground!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Still raining!!! Wet ground!!!!!

 

 

Mild, dry, and a little breezy here now with broken clouds.   

[MossMan]

The Space Needle trying not to drown in the disgusting gooey bathtub inversion from hell!

[TT-SEA]

The Space Needle trying not to drown in the disgusting gooey bathtub inversion from hell!

Looks cool from above in the clean air.

 

My wife was on a plane coming into Seattle today that was forced to circle for an hour due to the fog... while up in the bright sunshine. She said it went from very bright to really dark after the landing gear was already lowered... in the last 2 or 3 seconds before touching the ground.

 

Descending into the polluted, gooey layer on the ground.

[snow_wizard]

Another pretty chilly day with 54-37 IMBY.  This has been a solidly cool month here so far.  Today was my 13th consecutive low of 40 or below.  Truly excpetional for this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

Another pretty chilly day with 54-37 IMBY.  This has been a solidly cool month here so far.  Today was my 13th consecutive low of 40 or below.  Truly excpetional for this time of year.

 

There has not been a single low below 40 this month at SEA or at WFO SEA. 

 

The coldest temp at SEA this month has been 43... and at WFO SEA its been 41.

 

Just checking out the Snoqualmie Valley lows and its closer to what you have seen there.     Definitely warmer up here... we had a couple nights that did not go below 50 with the east wind.

[TT-SEA]

Rain is solidly back for Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF,   A dry Sunday disaster and complete nightmare has been avoided.   Did not want any reason to be outside and away from football!   

[BLI snowman]

Rain is solidly back for Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF,   A dry Sunday disaster and complete nightmare has been avoided.   Did not want any reason to be outside and away from football!   

 

It's been a devastatingly brutal stretch for dry weather connoisseurs. 

[TT-SEA]

It's been a devastatingly brutal stretch for dry weather connoisseurs.

Its was very wet here for 5 weeks... then dry for 2 weeks. Now it will rain on the majority of the days through April. Worrying about not getting rain in the PNW going into November is sort of silly.

[Deweydog]

Been a cold month and a wet fall!

[BLI snowman]

Its was very wet here for 5 weeks... then dry for 2 weeks. Now it will rain on the majority of the days through April. Worrying about not getting rain in the PNW going into November is sort of silly.

 

Scappoose has not had a single wetter than average month since November 2017. I'm very worried about not getting rain going into November.

[TT-SEA]

Scappoose has not had a single wetter than average month since November 2017. I'm very worried about not getting rain going into November.

Ahhhh... Scappoose!

 

Payback for the 2014-17 period maybe.

 

It all balances out. And it is silly to worry about not getting rain in November.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is quite ridgy next week. And amplified enough on this run to keep the rain up in BC for the most part.

[BLI snowman]

Ahhhh... Scappoose!

 

Payback for the 2014-17 period maybe.

 

It all balances out. And it is silly to worry about not getting rain in November.

 

2017 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 40.47"

2018 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 16.93"

 

A moderately wet year to a catastrophically dry one. Less than 50%! No balance to be found there    

[TT-SEA]

2017 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 40.47"

2018 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 16.93"

 

A moderately wet year to a catastrophically dry one. Less than 50%! No balance to be found there

Takes a really dry year to balance out 2014-17!

 

We are not even below normal for 2018 up here... let alone catastrophically dry. Hope we can balance it out at some point in the future.

[GHweatherChris]

I never prove poonts.

I think you have lol

[GHweatherChris]

There has not been a single low below 40 this month at SEA or at WFO SEA.

 

The coldest temp at SEA this month has been 43... and at WFO SEA its been 41.

 

Just checking out the Snoqualmie Valley lows and its closer to what you have seen there. Definitely warmer up here... we had a couple nights that did not go below 50 with the east wind.

Jim was talking about his backyard not the SEA or the WFO SEA stations, why bring them up?

[BLI snowman]

Takes a really dry year to balance out 2014-17!

 

We are not even below normal for 2018 up here... let alone catastrophically dry. Hope we can balance it out at some point in the future.

 

It's going to take a really wet year to balance out 2018. I pray the April 2019 flooding isn't too devastating.

[TT-SEA]

Just started a Family Guy episode on my DVR and on the weather break just before the show started... they said any day from now on without rain is a wonderful day.

 

Funny stuff... playing to common opinion!

[TT-SEA]

Jim was talking about his backyard not the SEA or the WFO SEA stations, why bring them up?

Actually Jim is the one who has been comparing his location to SEA lately.

 

Look back.

[TT-SEA]

It's going to take a really wet year to balance out 2018. I pray the April 2019 flooding isn't too devastating.

Oh no!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

SEA just got to 10-mile visibility for the first time in at least 3 days. The inversion is dead.

 

Nice night out there... 53 degrees here with a bright moon shining between some passing clouds.

[Front Ranger]

Tim has really kicked it up a notch!

[Jbolin]

Jim was talking about his backyard not the SEA or the WFO SEA stations, why bring them up?

Asking why to this question is like smashing your head in the freezer door repeatedly because you like the headaches.

[TT-SEA]

Asking why to this question is like smashing your head in the freezer door repeatedly because you like the headaches.

 

 

Really?   Because my post last night about SEA and Snoqualmie Valley temps was directly related to a posts Jim has made about the unusually large difference between SEA and his area this month.    I did not contradict anything he said and in fact backed up him.   And said that the Snoqualmie Valley has been more like his area in terms of overnight lows.

 

Show me where I have said anything negative at all to Jim since he has been back.    Good luck!  

 

MBY checked in with 54-39 today.  Almost every day this month has been below normal here.  This is one of the those months the min temps are consistently running 6 to 10 degrees lower than SEA.

 

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS sped up the timing for Sunday as well.   The 12Z EPS from yesterday was good sign that the operational runs were wrong... its usually right when its different within 5 or 6 days.

[TT-SEA]

2017 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 40.47"

2018 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 16.93"

 

A moderately wet year to a catastrophically dry one. Less than 50%! No balance to be found there    

 

 

I see now why you picked Scappoose.  

 

Here are some other 2018 totals:

 

Portland - 23.85

Vancouver - 25.56

Hillsboro - 25.65

McMinnvile - 25.85

Troutdale - 31.09

 

 

In fact... there might be a problem with the Scappoose gauge since it is so different than other stations in the same area.   

[TT-SEA]

Additionally... the precip anomaly map does not show a "catastrophically" dry year around the Portland area. Just a dry year... which seemed inevitable after several wet years.

 

 

 

 

We can't even get a drier than normal year up here. Still above normal for 2018 even after our recent dry spell.

 

[TT-SEA]

I always check the traffic cams and Issaquah has been in almost zero-visibility fog every morning for at least 10 days... way before the fog became an issue in Seattle. 

 

So nice to see the sky there this morning...

 

   

[Omegaraptor]

2017 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 40.47"

2018 precip thru 10/23 at Scappoose: 16.93"

 

A moderately wet year to a catastrophically dry one. Less than 50%! No balance to be found there

 

40.47” by November is wetter than normal. Remember that 2016-17 was one of the wettest winters on record.

 

But yeah, 16.93” is way under normal as well.

[TT-SEA]

40.47” by November is wetter than normal. Remember that 2016-17 was one of the wettest winters on record.

 

But yeah, 16.93” is way under normal as well.

 

 

And its about 6-8 inches lower than other stations in the area with similar averages.    Does not seem right.    

 

Its been dry down there... but probably not that dry.  

[MossMan]

Anything fun looking in the models over the coming weeks or months? Itching for a windstorm here.

I am also itching for a good windstorm...Not many others here would agree though.

[ShawniganLake]

I am also itching for a good windstorm...Not many others here would agree though.

I like a good windstorm. No sign of one in the models at this point.

[BLI snowman]

I see now why you picked Scappoose.  

 

Here are some other 2018 totals:

 

Portland - 23.85

Vancouver - 25.56

Hillsboro - 25.65

McMinnvile - 25.85

Troutdale - 31.09

 

 

In fact... there might be a problem with the Scappoose gauge since it is so different than other stations in the same area.   

 

Maybe....  or maybe the area is just kinda drought stricken. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fact is Tim is just wrong on this one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see now why you picked Scappoose.  

 

Here are some other 2018 totals:

 

Portland - 23.85

Vancouver - 25.56

Hillsboro - 25.65

McMinnvile - 25.85

Troutdale - 31.09

 

 

In fact... there might be a problem with the Scappoose gauge since it is so different than other stations in the same area.   

 

You are going to feel silly when I point out you posted the averages. I just looked at PDX rainfall so far in 2018 a few days ago so I knew immediately these numbers were off...Here are the real numbers.

 

PDX - 16.79 

VUO - 16.81`

HIO -  15.85 

Mac - 19.10

Troutdale - 18.67

 

Salem is actually the I-5 station in NW Oregon which is closest to normal in 2018, interestingly.