October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It was a perfect day down there last year. Don’t remember the cold morning as I was in full Halloween mode setting up my display!!! Here is one of my props. He didn’t complain about the Chilly morning

That’s what Tim thinks will happen to him if he sits out in the rain too long.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the cold airmass around Halloween extended a bit on the 12z. Looks to be the first significant snow in the Cascades above pass elevation down here.

[TT-SEA]

That’s what Tim thinks will happen to him if he sits out in the rain too long.

 

 

Actually... I was going to say that represents your fear every time its warmer than normal at PDX.   

[Jesse]

Actually... I was going to say that represents your fear every time its warmer than normal at PDX.

As long as the sun isn’t shining I’m a happy camper.

[TT-SEA]

As long as it’s sun isn’t shining I’m a happy camper.

 

 

Vampire-like!

 

Very Halloweenish.   

[Jesse]

[jcmcgaffey]

Tim truly speaks for all rain haters.

Hey don’t put me in that bucket:). I love the rain but I do root for dry weather more than I used to now that I have kids.

[wx_statman]

Wow, pretty interesting. Its been a fairly mild slightly above average October, by no means anywhere close to some of our historical torches. 

 

October is definitely a month that needs some mild SW'erly flow thrown in for torchy anomalies. Ridginess by itself no longer cuts it...

[jcmcgaffey]

I just checked and it was three years ago that we were in Renton for Halloween and it was dumping rain and windy. Last year wasn’t too bad as it was just a light rain.

[Phil]

Interesting how the Greenland death vortex broke down for 3 days this week..and that’s seemingly all it will take to force a trough into the PNW Sun/Mon (just one wavecycle, but still..).

 

Will be interesting to see what happens next time we have a vortex-free winter there.

[AbbyJr]

Perhaps it’s the warmer patterns that produce the blob? Or is it purely a coincidence that the return of the blob has coincided perfectly with the return to western ridging/+PNA as subsurface-reemergence season begins?

 

Think about it..+PNA/western ridge regimes feature winds that are both weaker and more southerly-oriented across the GOA. This warms the GOA waters by weakening vertical mixing, reducing evaporative cooling, and also enhances regional downwelling due because of the dampened zonal pressure gradient and increase in westerly advection under the Aleutian Low.

I agree Phil, but to be fair, there are some articles that have come out in the media suggesting that the blob effects the overall pattern and is responsible for milder and drier conditions. This of course is misinformation, but some people may believe it without realizing the facts.

[Deweydog]

.11+ in the next five days?

 

Not in this new, shitty climate!

[TT-SEA]

Just through day 8... the 12Z ECMWF shows almost 4 inches of rain in Portland and close to a foot of rain in the Olympics and Cascades. And its still dumping rain at that time.

Perpetual warm front pattern on steroids.

Ironically Halloween afternoon and evening looks like the driest time of the week right now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just through day 8... the 12Z ECMWF shows almost 4 inches of rain in Portland and close to a foot of rain in the Olympics and Cascades. And its still dumping rain at that time.

 

Perpetual warm front pattern on steroids.

 

Ironically Halloween afternoon and evening looks like the driest time of the week right now.

 

Only 2" here. But it's better than the zilch we have mostly had the past 6 months.

[TT-SEA]

Almost all rain... barely any snow in the mountains on this run.   

 

[Kayla]

Lots of snow headed this way...tis the season.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/24fg16r.png

[TT-SEA]

Tim is gonna love the new 00z EPS. Just flips right back to the same old pattern that keeps repeating like a skipping record.

 

Actually... that pattern is my absolute least favorite starting in late October through early February.  

 

Its great the rest of the year... but just results in perpetual warm front rain at this time of year.

 

I cheer enthusiastically for deep western troughing for the next 3 months.   

[Front Ranger]

I’m sure I mentioned this before but my area has been much wetter than normal than most other areas the last year or so. Normally we are one of the driest areas but this year SEA as been one of the driest areas and more drier than normal than the rest of the area.

 

SEA has definitely been a bit drier than much of the Seattle area this year, but only because they're further south. There's been a clear north to south gradient, especially north and east of the city as Tim loves to say.

 

 

Still, even Sand Point in the northeast part of town is right around normal for the year, and has been drier than normal 5 of the past 6 months, and 6 of the past 8.

[Front Ranger]

That 13 day run of sub-45 lows at PDX was the longest so early in the fall since 1981. That year, we had a 15 day run from October 11-25th...

 

August Icebox that summer as well!

[Front Ranger]

I just checked and it was three years ago that we were in Renton for Halloween and it was dumping rain and windy. Last year wasn’t too bad as it was just a light rain.

 

Weird, SEA and Sand Point were totally dry with lows in the 30s last Halloween. 

 

In fact, both were dry 8 of the last 9 days of October 2017.

[TT-SEA]

SEA has definitely been a bit drier than much of the Seattle area this year, but only because they're further south. There's been a clear north to south gradient, especially north and east of the city as Tim loves to say.

 

YearPDeptWA.png

 

Still, even Sand Point in the northeast part of town is right around normal for the year, and has been drier than normal 5 of the past 6 months, and 6 of the past 8.

 

 

Again... the WRCC maps seem to be drier than actual stations show.    

 

SEA is currently around 2 inches below normal for the year but that map indicates 3-6 inches below normal.   

 

WFO SEA was already +1.08 on the year through yesterday and probably +1.50 now.   

 

And this all a moot point because that map will show the entire area from Kelso northward above normal for the year in 10 days.    So it is quite possible that 2018 will go down as another wet year even in Seattle.     And already virtually guaranteed to be above normal to the north and east of Seattle.  

[Front Ranger]

Again... the WRCC maps seem to be drier than actual stations show.    

 

SEA is currently around 2 inches below normal for the year but that map indicates 3-6 inches below normal.   

 

WFO SEA was already +1.08 on the year through yesterday and probably +1.50 now.   

 

And this all a moot point because that map will show the entire area from Kelso northward above normal for the year in 10 days.    So it is quite possible that 2018 will go down as another wet year even in Seattle.   

 

The point was just that SEA has not really been an outlier for its location.

[TT-SEA]

Weird, SEA and Sand Point were totally dry with lows in the 30s last Halloween. 

 

In fact, both were totally dry 8 of the last 9 days of October 2017.

 

 

Last Halloween started out dry with offshore flow and chilly temps under clear skies.   Rain was moving in by later in the evening though.  

[MossMan]

Almost all rain... barely any snow in the mountains on this run.

 

Wet! Trees will be drowning.

[TT-SEA]

The point was just that SEA has not really been an outlier for its location.

 

 

Actually... the original point was that someone posting from just north of Seattle said it was wetter up there than at SEA this year.   That is a true statement. 

 

And that goes against the long-term averages.    

[Front Ranger]

Last Halloween started out dry with offshore flow and chilly temps under clear skies.   Rain was moving in by later in the evening though.  

 

Regardless, no rain was recorded on Halloween at either Seattle station.

 

Much different story the previous year.

[Front Ranger]

Actually... the original point was that someone posting from just north of Seattle said it was wetter up there than at SEA this year.   That is a true statement. 

 

And that goes against the long-term averages.    

 

Context. The same poster has inferred previously, along with a couple others, that SEA has been strangely dry compared to the rest of the area. 

 

He said this time that SEA has been "drier than the rest of the area". It's just been drier than normal compared to areas further north and east.

[TT-SEA]

Regardless, no rain was recorded on Halloween at either Seattle station.

 

Much different story the previous year.

 

 

Just pulled up the archived radar image for last Halloween... it was actually dry through midnight for the entire area.   

 

So it definitely did not rain in Seattle (or even in King County) on Halloween in 2017.    His wife must be remembering the prior years more vividly.    

[Deweydog]

Maps, please!

[Front Ranger]

Maps, please!

 

[Jesse]

Just pulled up the archived radar image for last Halloween... it was actually dry through midnight for the entire area.

 

So it definitely did not rain in Seattle (or even in King County) on Halloween in 2017. His wife must be remembering the prior years more vividly.

You just broke rule # 1. People overdramatizing rain related anecdotes are NEVER wrong.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 5-10 day period:

 

 

And then the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

That would likely be quite pleasant from March through October... but its just ridiculously wet from November - February.   

 

This is very similar to late January and early February.    And I swear there is some correlation between the pattern in January and then again in November.    We have seen it happen before... 2006 is a good example.   

[Esquimalt]

12Z EPS for the 5-10 day period:

 

 

And then the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

That would likely be quite pleasant from March through October... but its just ridiculously wet from November - February.   

 

This is very similar to late January and early February.    And I swear there is some correlation between the pattern in January and then again in November.    We have seen it happen before... 2006 is a good example.   

Looks like it could be cold in the east between 11/8 and 11/15.  Thoughts? 

[jcmcgaffey]

Context. The same poster has inferred previously, along with a couple others, that SEA has been strangely dry compared to the rest of the area.

 

He said this time that SEA has been "drier than the rest of the area". It's just been drier than normal compared to areas further north and east.

. That is a good point. I have been tending to think SEA area and north with my comments and the north south gradient is probably a big reason why SEA seems to be dryer than most areas. Areas to the south of SEA look to be even drier.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it could be cold in the east between 11/8 and 11/15.  Thoughts? 

 

That is still pretty far out in time... but here is the 12Z EPS at day 15 (11/10) and it looks good for you.

 

[Jesse]

Mild and wet is the best possible pattern right now. We need the rain, and it’s probably a good thing we’re not blowing our load on an early November cold snap considering the ENSO state. Save that front loading for late November/December.

[TT-SEA]

Mild and wet is the best possible pattern right now. We need the rain, and it’s probably a good thing we’re not blowing our load on an early November cold snap considering the ENSO state. Save that front loading for late November/December.

 

 

I do agree with that... lets get warm and wet out of the way and have the potential for cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to New Years.

[Deweydog]

map-by-british-3_1_orig.jpg

Definitely shows California moving north, putting the squeeze on Oregon and Washington's climate. Ugh.

[jcmcgaffey]

Just pulled up the archived radar image for last Halloween... it was actually dry through midnight for the entire area.   

 

So it definitely did not rain in Seattle (or even in King County) on Halloween in 2017.    His wife must be remembering the prior years more vividly.    

 

I remember it being dry all day then when we left to go out the door it was misting and had light rain for pretty much the exact time we were trick or treating.  I could be thinking of two years ago but I am fairly certain it was last year.  I do see that king 5 had a story last year stating that last year was the first dry Halloween in 11 yrs but I do remember rain.  Maybe there was an early convergence that started or something.  I see the warmest Halloween was 1949.  Maybe we can get a warm and dry halloween this year if it means we can follow that up with a 1949 winter....

 

https://www.king5.com/article/weather/blog/trick-or-treat-forecast-first-dry-halloween-in-11-years/487297779

[stuffradio]

I don't know who this person is, but someone said they're starting to lean towards 58/59 as an analog. Dec to Feb 58/59 was pretty troughy over the west and east coast, and ridgy west coast in November so...

 

Edit: actually this is the list of analogs he used