October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

D**n brother, how wide was the radius of guts?

 

I usually just trap them in a cup or something and throw them outside. Killing one would be too messy.

 

They make spider/critter suckers that are a battery-powered vacuum that you cover up then dump them outside. I like to keep spiders alive because they eat evil mosquitoes and yellowjackets.

[TT-SEA]

Was also a first-year +ENSO during solar minimum following a multiyear weak -ENSO stretch following a super niño. Also had -AMO/+PDO. Hard to find a better long term preconditioning.

 

Then again, the climate was just leaving a multidecadal cold phase at the time, and the QBO was out of phase vs today. So it’s hard to imagine it being an unflappable match to this year.

Hope it can stick to the 1986 script for October at least.

 

And a summer like 1987 next year would also be nice.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is pretty nice overall... a little rain on Friday and some rain on Monday and Tuesday but otherwise dry with ridging slowly building in later next week.

[Phil]

The September North American snowcover extent was the highest on record, beating out 2014.

 

[Winterdog]

Arlington is like Olympia in terms of radiational cooling.  

The station of the Gods!

[Phil]

Definitely a testament to how powerful that vortex has been in recent years, that the all-time September snowcover record in North America has been broken twice in 5yrs.

[Phil]

Snowfall records still falling in Canada.

 

[Phil]

Also the greatest October snow depth on record, beating the old record from 1957, in addition to the daily storm snowfall record from 1914. And it was the 7th snowiest day on record (at any time of year).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2018/10/03/calgary-alberta-province-just-saw-unprecedented-october-snowfall-winter-gets-off-huge-start-canada/?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Deweydog]

Sure, I think we will finish under 1.50".

Who's we?

[BLI snowman]

Who's we?

 

PDX. Probably VUO, SPB, and TTD as well.

[Deweydog]

PDX. Probably VUO, SPB, and TTD as well.

Make 1.25 the over/under and you're on! I believe 1.50 inches is 150% of one inch.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That northerly wind from the gorge. Fkn love it when it makes it all the way to the south valley. Feels amazing. Might not make it out of the 60s with blazing sunshine.

[BLI snowman]

Make 1.25 the over/under and you're on! I believe 1.50 inches is 150% of one inch.

 

1.375"

 

Loser has to actually score the next forecast contest.

[Deweydog]

1.375"

 

Loser has to actually score the next forecast contest.

Add the fact you can't post the word "snow" or "drought" the rest of the calendar year and we're set.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Loser must be forced to watch every Seahawks game to the bitter end.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS builds in ridging starting in about a week through the end of the run.

[Phil]

12Z EPS builds in ridging starting in about a week through the end of the run.

Deja-vu?

[BLI snowman]

Add the fact you can't post the word "snow" or "drought" the rest of the calendar year and we're set.

 

Won't really have to worry about the first one 

[Deweydog]

Won't really have to worry about the first one

You'll be kicking yourself when we're sweating the potential of a brief transition event in early December.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day! The standard for which is now any day that there is not water dumping from the sky.

[Jesse]

Add the fact you can't post the word "snow" or "drought" the rest of the calendar year and we're set.

Has your client requested that the words “rain” and “King County” remain exempt?

[TT-SEA]

Has your client requested that the words “rain” and “King County” remain exempt?

Confirmed.

[Jesse]

Confirmed.

This has got to be costing you a bundle.

[Deweydog]

Has your client requested that the words “rain” and “King County” remain exempt?

Could be in the trove of PM's he sent me recently.

[BLI snowman]

You'll be kicking yourself when we're sweating the potential of a brief transition event in early December.

 

12-7-18. A date which will live in infamy.  Also the highlight of our winter/soon-to-be-spring.

[Jesse]

Deja-vu?

Hoping they are wrong again.

[TT-SEA]

Could be in the trove of PM's he sent me recently.

 

 

Attorney-client privilege!   

[Jesse]

Could be in the trove of PM's he sent me recently.

It’s all adding up.

[Deweydog]

12-7-18. A date which will live in infamy. Also the highlight of our winter/soon-to-be-spring.

Inversion season's biological clock is already ticking...

[TT-SEA]

Hoping they are wrong again.

 

 

No doubt its mirage... its all coming up Jesse in the models! 

[Jesse]

No doubt its mirage... its all coming up Jesse in the models!

 

Gotta really soak in the 5-10% of the time that is the case.

[TT-SEA]

Gotta really soak in the 5-10% of the time that is the case.

 

 

Seems like most of 2018 has been that way except for a few weeks in late April and in July and August.  

[Jesse]

Seems like most of 2018 has been that way except for a few weeks in late April and in July and August.

Seems can be deceiving and highly dependent on one’s capacity for regional objectivity.

[TT-SEA]

Seems can be deceiving and highly dependent on one’s capacity for regional objectivity.

 

 

Or maybe based on living in different places with very different weather.

[Jesse]

Or maybe based on living in different places with very different weather.

Are we really doing this again?

 

I’m starting to wonder how many times this forum can contain the exact same argument.

[TT-SEA]

Are we really doing this again?

 

I’m starting to wonder how many times this forum can contain the exact same argument.

 

 

Obviously many, many times!  

[Deweydog]

Are we really doing this again?

 

I’m starting to wonder how many times this forum can contain the exact same argument.

Really?

 

Something tells me you'll come to your senses and try passing this off as a joke.

[El_Nina]

Got down to 37 this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We should make a list of us here who have gotten our first accumulating snow or are still waiting. I can venture a guess as to who has gone the longest without it.

Sounds like a good idea.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, here is AccuWeather's Winter forecast that they just released. This is what they have to say for the PNW.

 

Snow and rain may target the Northwest and Rockies

 

A phenomenon known as a pineapple connection could take place this winter, drawing a deep flow of moisture into the western U.S.

 

"Places on the West Coast could get hammered," Pastelok said.

 

Central and Northern California to Oregon are likely to experience the heaviest precipitation, with flooding and mudslides not out of the question.

 

January into very early February is forecast to be the stormiest period for the Northwest and Northern California before conditions dry out in February.

 

"Ski areas from Washington to central and Northern California will have a good year with an extra boost possible from the late December and January pattern," Pastelok said.

 

http://oi66.tinypic.com/331q3vq.jpg

 

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208