October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a notch farther south with the system on Friday afternoon and evening... 

 

[MossMan]

12Z GFS is a notch farther south with the system on Friday afternoon and evening...

 

Really hoping for a dry day on Friday to pull the boat out and winterize it. Let’s hope that verifies!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON shows the Friday system even farther south than the GFS and it misses the Seattle area entirely.  

 

Its also farther south and west with the weak system coming down in the NW flow on Sunday.

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

Looks like OLM, Shelton, McChord, and Arlington all dropped to freezing before the fog limited additional cooling.

[Deweydog]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case folks missed it. Tim said this morning he thinks we will have trouble getting into the 30s this December and January.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For the third straight year no less.

One of the reasons why I'm hoping this Winter we get a big regional event like in December 2008 so everybody can score. With localized events, a slight shift in track might be the reason you're dry or with cold rain rather than snow. With big regional events your margin of error is more.

[Front Ranger]

In case folks missed it. Tim said this morning he thinks we will have trouble getting into the 30s this December and January.

 

He then realized how dumb that sounded and edited his post to say "freezing" instead.

 

Next level trolling.

[TT-SEA]

In case folks missed it. Tim said this morning he thinks we will have trouble getting into the 30s this December and January.

 

 

I said we might consider getting down to freezing in the mid-winter as an achievement.    Which has been the case in some years.

 

Much like getting into the 60s in February and then struggling to the 60s in June.  

 

Our climate is interestingly muted.  

[TT-SEA]

He then realized how dumb that sounded and edited his post to say "freezing" instead.

 

Next level trolling.

 

 

I meant to say freezing initially as well... but even getting down into the 30s at SEA and PDX has been cause for celebration in January recently.  

[Timmy]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eugene fell to at least 36 this morning.

 

Looks like they hit 78 yesterday. So 19 degrees warmer than Jim’s place.

 

Springfield didn't, all the stations in town got down to 41-43.  It seems Mahlon Sweet Field is typically one of the coldest spots in the valley and the rest of Eugene/Springfield is usually several degrees warmer.

[Front Ranger]

I meant to say freezing initially as well... but even getting down into the 30s at SEA and PDX has been cause for celebration in January recently.  

 

Recently meaning last January (though the first 8 days had lows in the 30s at PDX), but certainly not 2017. 

[TT-SEA]

For example... SEA got down to freezing once this past January and it was celebrated.   And only got below 35 on just 3 days in January.   

 

And it was not just SEA... Snoqualmie Valley also only got below freezing once this past January.  

[Front Ranger]

Springfield didn't, all the stations in town got down to 41-43.  It seems Mahlon Sweet Field is typically one of the coldest spots in the valley and the rest of Eugene/Springfield is usually several degrees warmer.

 

It also seems like Springfield has been one of the warmer spots in the valley recently. Even SLE got colder than that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One of the reasons why I'm hoping this Winter we get a big regional event like in December 2008 so everybody can score. With localized events, a slight shift in track might be the reason you're dry or with cold rain rather than snow. With big regional events your margin of error is more.

 

We should make a list of us here who have gotten our first accumulating snow or are still waiting. I can venture a guess as to who has gone the longest without it.

[Front Ranger]

For example... SEA got down to freezing once this past January and it was celebrated.   And only got below 35 on just 3 days in January.   

 

And it was not just SEA... Snoqualmie Valley also only got below freezing once this past January.  

 

They hit freezing 10 times in December and 9 times in February, though. Not bad for a warm spot.

[TT-SEA]

Recently meaning last January (though the first 8 days had lows in the 30s at PDX), but certainly not 2017. 

 

 

Yes... 2017 was colder.

 

But SEA was only below freezing on 4 days in January 2016

 

And 2 days in January 2015

 

And 2 days in January 2014 (both at 31)

 

Just an observation about our muted climate.   We can be talking about freezing temps in early October and still struggle to get below freezing in January.   The opposite is true in the spring.   We can have these bursts of warmth in late winter and early spring that exceed many days in May and June.    

 

In my area... we hit 70 on MLK Day and then had some days in June with highs in the 50s.   

[Deweydog]

For example... SEA got down to freezing once this past January and it was celebrated. And only got below 35 on just 3 days in January.

 

And it was not just SEA... Snoqualmie Valley also only got below freezing once this past January.

You're an uncomfortable vehicle for climate change lament-related hyperbole. It's upsetting for those who want full autonomy over their whining.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It also seems like Springfield has been one of the warmer spots in the valley recently. Even SLE got colder than that.

 

Springfield, Corvallis, and Monmouth have been the warmest spots in the valley for as long as I have paid attention.     Yet all 3 cities average 4+ inches of snow historically.  Only 3 or so since 1981 though. 

[Front Ranger]

Yes... 2017 was colder.

 

But SEA was only below freezing on 4 days in January 2016

 

And 2 days in January 2015

 

And 2 days in January 2014 (both at 31)

 

Just an observation about our muted climate.   We can be talking about freezing temps in early October and still struggle to get below freezing in January.   The opposite is true in the spring.   We can have these bursts of warmth in late winter and early spring that exceed many days in May and June.    

 

In my area... we hit 70 on MLK Day and then had some days in June with highs in the 50s.   

 

So what you're saying is....January has overall not been a very cold month in recent years? About time someone pointed that out!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS actually shows ridging building in starting one week from today... maybe this time it will actually stick.     Believe when I see it.  

[Front Ranger]

The FV3 also keeps Tim and Randy mercifully dry on Friday.

[TT-SEA]

The FV3 also keeps Tim and Randy mercifully dry on Friday.

 

And Sunday too!   

 

Very nice.   Its been really wet.  

[Front Ranger]

And Sunday too!   

 

Very nice.   Its been really wet.  

 

In small pockets, yes.

 

[Deweydog]

19 degrees to go at the airport...

[Jesse]

better be triggered by some dude on a forum than our climate I suppose.

True. At least with our climate you can just log off or put it on ignore.

[Phil]

Its hard for me to troll your weather when it sounds nice.

Yeah, 90 degree days in October are sooooo nice.

[Deweydog]

True. At least with our climate you can just log off or put it on ignore.

Haha! You can't! Our climate is a shoulder chip the likes of which can NEVER be removed.

[TT-SEA]

In small pockets, yes.

 

7dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Referring more to the last month... and its nice that the wetter than normal area to the north and east of Seattle is the area that might be dry on Friday.  We need more systems that bypass our area and head straight for Oregon!  

 

[Jesse]

Haha! You can't! Our climate is a shoulder chip the likes of which can NEVER be removed.

Don’t even get me started on how rainy it is here.

[MossMan]

The FV3 also keeps Tim and Randy mercifully dry on Friday.

Yay! Boat ride for everyone before I put it on the trailer!

[Jesse]

12Z GFS actually shows ridging building in starting one week from today... maybe this time it will actually stick.     Believe when I see it.  

 

We've had riding over us maybe 80% of the time the last six months. Not like it has been hard to come by, despite the melodramatics.

[Deweydog]

Don’t even get me started on how rainy it is here.

It's been very dry, save for a few areas to our north. Or at least so I've heard. It'd be nice if the somewhat peculiar anomaly was illustrated visually in some way...

[ShawniganLake]

35 this morning. Touch of frost.

 

Based off of the last 135 thousand posts. I think the area north and east of Seattle has been wetter than other areas in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

We've had riding over us maybe 80% of the time the last six months. Not like it has been hard to come by, despite the melodramatics.

 

 

Believe it when I see it.   The models have been promising ridging and then taking it away.   

 

I just did the calculation for the Snoqualmie Valley... it has rained on 78 out of the last 180 days.     That is 43% of the days since April 3rd.    We don't normally have rain with ridging in the warm season.   

[TT-SEA]

35 this morning. Touch of frost.

 

Based off of the last 135 thousand posts. I think the area north and east of Seattle has been wetter than other areas in the PNW.

 

Cliff Mass says Seattle is included as well. 

 

[Deweydog]

35 this morning. Touch of frost.

 

Based off of the last 135 thousand posts. I think the area north and east of Seattle has been wetter than other areas in the PNW.

It'll be discovered and discussed again tomorrow. Don't miss a minute of the action!

[Jesse]

It's been very dry, save for a few areas to our north. Or at least so I've heard. It'd be nice if the somewhat peculiar anomaly was illustrated visually in some way...

 

I think your klient has it kovered.