October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

44 at PDX. Pretty impressive you guys.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Believe it when I see it.   The models have been promising ridging and then taking it away.   

 

I just did the calculation for the Snoqualmie Valley... it has rained on 78 out of the last 180 days.     That is 43% of the days since April 3rd.    We don't normally have rain with ridging in the warm season.   

 

Opposite of a lot of the last year plus.  Hopefully that trend lasts through March.

[Jesse]

35 this morning. Touch of frost.

 

Based off of the last 135 thousand posts. I think the area north and east of Seattle has been wetter than other areas in the PNW.

 

Might be dealing with closer to 135 if we didn't have to look at King County rainfall maps every time so much as a blade of dry grass is mentioned down here.

[Jesse]

44 at PDX. Pretty impressive you guys.

 

Good thing ridging will be building in again soon to warm the bones!

[Deweydog]

44 at PDX. Pretty impressive you guys.

We just can't have anything nice here, except maybe for the new waterfront park.

 

Ironically, you can kinda see PDX from it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is going to be even more torturous in Nov if we have an early snow up in Washington but are stuck in BSF down here.

 

Up to 52F now.

[Deweydog]

The movie Moonrise Kingdom is pretty good but the meteorological references really bother me.

[BLI snowman]

We just can't have anything nice here, except maybe for the new waterfront park.

 

Ironically, you can kinda see PDX from it.

 

You can see a trailer park from there.

[Perturbed Member]

12Z GFS is a notch farther south with the system on Friday afternoon and evening... 

 

 

 

Excellent, should help us go offshore flow at PDX and get the snow level close to the surface. Hope the models don't trend north at the last second.

[Deweydog]

You can see a trailer park from there.

Trailer parks are the UHI bath houses of the '90's for many, many frustrated weather enthusiasts.

[TT-SEA]

Good thing ridging will be building in again soon to warm the bones!

 

 

That would be soooooo nice!

 

Believe it when I see it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We should make a list of us here who have gotten our first accumulating snow or are still waiting. I can venture a guess as to who has gone the longest without it.

 

I think my last accumulating snow was April 1st or 2nd. 

[BLI snowman]

Thinking we might not go much over an inch of rain here this month. 

[Deweydog]

Thinking we might not go much over an inch of rain here this month.

Wanna bet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is going to be even more torturous in Nov if we have an early snow up in Washington but are stuck in BSF down here.

 

Up to 52F now.

 

Even last year was torture with the early cold push into northern Washington. November has been a very hit or miss month up here since I moved here in 2011. November 2011 felt like a legitimate winter month, with a 6" snow event on the 17th and snow on a couple other days. 2014 was pretty chilly at times, but then 2012,16,17 were pretty mild and we didn't get close to snow at all. March on the other hand has a more consistent winter feel to it here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Since troughing has been the overall theme of the past 6 months we are now due for some short lived ridging!

[TT-SEA]

Since troughing has been the overall theme of the past 6 months we are now due for some short lived ridging!

 

Not the overall theme.   You made that up.  

 

And I seriously doubt any ridging is coming.   Believe it when I see it.   We are chasing that carrot now.  

[BLI snowman]

Wanna bet?

 

Sure, I think we will finish under 1.50".

[Front Ranger]

Not the overall theme.   You made that up.  

 

And I seriously doubt any ridging is coming.   Believe it when I see it.   We are chasing that carrot now.  

 

Who cares. Looks like plenty of dry, fallish weather on tap.

[TT-SEA]

Yay! Boat ride for everyone before I put it on the trailer!

 

 

The ECMWF surface map is a cold dose of reality... as usual.   

 

The 12Z ECMWF has shifted a little south for Friday compared to its 00Z run but it is definitely not dry.    <_>

 

[TT-SEA]

Who cares. Looks like plenty of dry, fallish weather on tap.

 

Not even sure about that.   We will see.  

[Front Ranger]

12 Euro is colder at day 5, due to the mean trough position being a bit further west.

[TT-SEA]

12 Euro is colder at day 5, due to the mean trough position being a bit further west.

 

This is definitely making for an improved Sunday.    The 00Z run had warm front rain spreading over WA by late morning.

 

The new 12Z run is dry for the entire day... here is 5 p.m.

 

 

 

ECMWF refuses to give us water-logged folks a dry Friday... but it has granted us a dry Sunday (for now).  

[Phil]

Does anyone here get these brown wolf spiders wandering into the house during the autumn months?

 

I know they’re supposedly harmless, but these motherf**kers just creep me out. I’ve had to remove two of them this week.

 

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

[ShawniganLake]

Does anyone here get these brown wolf spiders wandering into the house during the autumn months?

 

I know they’re supposedly harmless, but these motherf**kers just creep me out. I’ve had to remove two of them this week.

 

They love people who leave clothes on the floor. A nice cozy place to burrow in.

[TT-SEA]

D**n brother, how wide was the radius of guts?

 

I usually just trap them in a cup or something and throw them outside. Killing one would be too messy.

 

No guts... grabbed a wad of toilet paper then flushed it.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much drier for Monday and Tuesday compared to the 00Z run.  

 

Still shows a c-zone and rain in orographically favored areas in that period, but is much drier overall.  

[Phil]

No guts... grabbed a wad of toilet paper then flushed it.

Stone cold assassin, you are.

 

Usually they skulk around in the furnace room and keep the cricket population in check, so I’m not big into killing them. But wandering upstairs violates the terms of the lease.

[TT-SEA]

Stone cold assassin, you are.

 

Usually they skulk around in the furnace room and keep the cricket population in check, so I’m not big into killing them. But wandering upstairs violates the terms of the lease.

 

I am the spider killer in the family.     

 

I never let a known spider in the house live.  

[Phil]

Man, 1986 is just plastered all over the StormVista analog packages this week. Similar to how 2000/01 was dominating this time last year.

[TT-SEA]

Here is total rain from Friday evening through Wednesday evening... 

 

00Z ECMWF last night:

 

 

And the new 12Z ECMWF run:

 

[TT-SEA]

Man, 1986 is just plastered all over the StormVista analog packages this week. Similar to how 2000/01 was dominating this time last year.

 

I mentioned that earlier this week.   1986 is literally all over the place on the analog maps.  

 

That cool, wet period was followed by a 23-day dry spell here in October of 1986.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also totally dry by Wednesday and beyond.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Man, 1986 is just plastered all over the StormVista analog packages this week. Similar to how 2000/01 was dominating this time last year.

 

Rats!!

[Winterdog]

First freezing temp of the season this morning.  31.7F... tied with 1994, 2009 and 2013 for second earliest since 1992 at my location.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is really cold throughout most of the West by next Wednesday and beyond... except the warm finger along the coast. 

 

[TT-SEA]

First freezing temp of the season this morning.  31.7F... tied with 1994, 2009 and 2013 for second earliest since 1992 at my location.  

 

Arlington is like Olympia in terms of radiational cooling.  

[Phil]

I mentioned that earlier this week. 1986 is literally all over the place on the analog maps.

 

That cool, wet period was followed by a 23-day dry spell here in October of 1986.

Was also a first-year +ENSO during solar minimum following a multiyear weak -ENSO stretch following a super niño. Also had -AMO/+PDO. Hard to find a better long term preconditioning.

 

Then again, the climate was just leaving a multidecadal cold phase at the time, and the QBO was out of phase vs today. So it’s hard to imagine it being an unflappable match to this year.