October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Tim must be at work or something. Euro rainfall over the next 7 days

 

ACAF0331-CC5E-4176-9E75-181B67A0BA0C.png

Not much change. Rain events on Friday and Monday into Tuesday morning.

[Jesse]

At least the Euro is a little chillier with the midweek stuff than the GFS.

[Phil]

Yeah, that's true as a general rule, but weaker +ENSO winters can still be decent Jan-Mar: 2006-7 (as you mentioned), 1994-95, 1990-91, 1979-80, 1968-69, 1958-59, 1951-52.

 

If this event reaches moderate status by the OND trimonthly, then you can probably stick a fork in winter from mid January on for both the lowlands and mountains.

True, and as I’m sure you’re aware, it’s not only the strength of ENSO itself, but also other external forcings in conjunction with it (such as peripheral tropical & subtropical SSTAs that can also affect convection, and QBO/solar).

 

There are weak +ENSO years that have behaved like powerful El Niños (2014/15, 2004/05, etc) and powerful El Niños that have behaved more like ENSO-neutral (1968/69, 1972/73, etc). It all depends how the tropics and extratropics interact, and on what timescales and seasonalities.

 

So, stuff like the Pacific/Atlantic meridional SST modes, IOD/warm pool, QBO/polar annular modes, and solar forcing(s), can be just as powerful (sometimes even more powerful) influences on extratropical wave dynamics/weather patterns.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yeah, that's true as a general rule, but weaker +ENSO winters can still be decent Jan-Mar: 2006-7 (as you mentioned), 1994-95, 1990-91, 1979-80, 1968-69, 1958-59, 1951-52.

 

If this event reaches moderate status by the OND trimonthly, then you can probably stick a fork in winter from mid January on for both the lowlands and mountains.

For snow, but windstorms can still happen after mid Jan right?

[Phil]

Holy +NAO. Has dominated the globe since May.

 

[Phil]

Insane reversal from the 1950s/1960s.

 

This is the anti-2010/anti-1968.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

For snow, but windstorms can still happen after mid Jan right?

Mid Oct-mid Feb is where I feel like the potential is there. 4 month window for significant action in the windstorm department.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy +NAO. Has dominated the globe since May.

 

What's your bet on what happens when that monster that Greenland/Baffin Bay has monopolized finally weakens?

[seattleweatherguy]

Mid Oct-mid Feb is where I feel like the potential is there. 4 month window for significant action in the windstorm department.

Historic winds happen about every ten years we are due for one

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Springfield should see some decent rain tomorrow with some orographics at play being up against the cascade foothills.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Historic winds happen about every ten years we are due for one

 

A nice regional windstorm sounds fun.

[Phil]

What's your bet on what happens when that monster that Greenland/Baffin Bay has monopolized finally weakens?

Given how integrated it is with the off-equator convection in the Pacific and warm pool/OHC gradients, any sustained reversal will shake up the ocean-atmosphere system via the known subtropical conduits. That’s why these regimes often terminate abruptly, rather than gradually.

 

The question is when does it happen? The SSW last winter only temporarily killed it..not long enough to change the self-sustaining boundary conditions that have been sustaining the regime since 2013. Will need strong, highly amplified wave dynamics and favorable solar forcing to flip both the Atlantic/NAO and Pacific/PNA.

[Jesse]

Given how integrated it is with the off-equator convection in the Pacific and warm pool/OHC gradients, any sustained reversal will shake up the ocean-atmosphere system via the known subtropical conduits. That’s why these regimes often terminate abruptly, rather than gradually.

 

The question is when does it happen? The SSW last winter only temporarily killed it..not long enough to change the self-sustaining boundary conditions that have been sustaining the regime since 2013. Will need strong, highly amplified wave dynamics and favorable solar forcing to flip both the Atlantic/NAO and Pacific/PNA.

Reducing CO2 emissions might help too. But we all know that ain’t happening.

[Phil]

Insane reversal from the 1950s/1960s.

 

This is the anti-2010/anti-1968.

 

These regime flips are usually pretty quick, and are highly correlated with the PDO/PNA (the PDO actually lags the NAO by approximately 3yrs on average, with a very high correlation coefficient in the derivative).

 

Note how the long term -NAO regime “step changed” to neutral in the early/mid 1970s, and stayed that way until flipping positive in the year of 1989. It remained that way until flipping back to neutral in 1995, then abruptly switched to negative again in 2006.

 

The flip to negative was short lived, though..we flipped back to neutral positive in 2013/14 and quickly swung into nuclear positive territory in 2017.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

These regime flips are usually pretty quick, and are highly correlated with the PDO/PNA (the PDO actually lags the NAO by approximately 3yrs on average, with a very high correlation coefficient in the derivative).

 

Note how the long term -NAO regime “step changed” to neutral in the early/mid 1970s, and stayed that way until flipping positive in the year of 1989. It remained that way until flipping back to neutral in 1995, then abruptly switched to negative again in 2006.

 

The flip to negative was short lived, though..we flipped back to neutral positive in 2013/14 and quickly swung into nuclear positive territory in 2017.

 

If that thing dislodges in Dec...

[Phil]

Reducing CO2 emissions might help too. But we all know that ain’t happening.

It might help, it might hurt, or it might have no effect in the long run. It’s a pretty complicated topic and we don’t understand it very well.

 

We know the system loves to cycle the NAO and PNA/PDO on all sorts of timescales (and this particular cycle is not (yet) unusual in the context of the Holocene interstadial) so there’s a good chance this is merely another vacillation, common of late-stage interstadials under declining Obliquity.

 

At the very least, the timing is right where you would expect it given the frequencies of the various overlapping periodicities produced by the ocean/atmosphere system since the mid-Holocene transition.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had decent hopes from 2016-17, but by the time we got to Thanksgiving my expectations were through the floor. It turned out alright. I had very low expectations for 2015-16 and it was not very good. Though it was better than the previous year. 

[Jesse]

I had decent hopes from 2016-17, but by the time we got to Thanksgiving my expectations were through the floor. It turned out alright. I had very low expectations for 2015-16 and it was not very good. Though it was better than the previous year.

There was really nowhere to go but up from 2014-15.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I had decent hopes from 2016-17, but by the time we got to Thanksgiving my expectations were through the floor. It turned out alright. I had very low expectations for 2015-16 and it was not very good. Though it was better than the previous year. 

 

Low expectations this cold season. Esp for the south valley.

[Jesse]

Low expectations this cold season. Esp for the south valley.

#north/south

 

#BSF

 

#EUGoutlier

 

#CaliValley

[TigerWoodsLibido]

#north/south

 

#BSF

 

#EUGoutlier

 

#CaliValley

 

Pretty much

[TT-SEA]

Took a break between meetings and picking tomatoes now... still going gangbusters.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Took a break between meetings and picking tomatoes now... still going gangbusters.

 

 

My boy downs those things like grapes.

[Deweydog]

Ugh... Is this a gardening forum or a weather forum??? Lolz!

[Dave]

I had to put a sweatshirt on.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Dave]

It's quite pleasant down here isn't it

 

Though I guess it's "up here" compared to PDX and SLE

You have me by 120'. Only 380 feet here. You should get buried this winter. I'd buy a meter stick now before they are all gone.

[Blizzard777]

Took a break between meetings and picking tomatoes now... still going gangbusters.

It was a great year for tomatoes! I planted all small varieties and man they taste sweeeet!

[Front Ranger]

Tomatoes love droughts more than Tim.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

Brrr. Currently 53. Please rain hold off until after 11am tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Tomatoes love droughts more than Tim.

I’m sure those tomatoes were well pampered and watered frequently. Also like Tim.

[El_Nina]

My problem with their forecast is that whoever made their maps is obviously not the same person who wrote it, or if it is the same person, they are clueless to our PNW weather.  The obvious contradiction went right over someone's head.  

 

The truth is, and I have lived long enough to see a lot of El Nino's, is that the mountains are usually ok with the snowpack for the first half of winter, the true effects of the Nino's aren't until about mid January, then you can stick a fork in winter.  The last Nino in 2015-16 showed that, the mountains and ski areas did great for the first part of winter, and then just sort of hung onto their snow for the last part.  And of course 2006-2007 was not bad for the lowlands either.  

 

By Spring though the snowpack could be low.

It seems like eople on the east coast think snow is automatic in the mountains given the moisture. And yes, as an avid snowboarder I can tell that Nino years are front loaded and end very early. That is, if theres even a load.

[TT-SEA]

I’m sure those tomatoes were well pampered and watered frequently. Also like Tim.

 

 

We watered the garden for a few weeks from the middle of July through the middle of August.   It was not really necessary in May and June since it rained here on 14 days in each of those months.   

 

And by August... the plants were so big that they completely shaded the ground and the need to water faded quickly.   And since early September it has rained on 22 out of the last 28 days.    We have been pulling in potted plants on the deck to keep them from drowning.  

[Jesse]

We watered the garden for a few weeks from the middle of July through the middle of August. It was not really necessary in May and June since it rained here on 14 days in each of those months.

 

And by August... the plants were so big that they completely shaded the ground and the need to water faded quickly. And since early September it has rained on 22 out of the last 28 days. We have been pulling in potted plants on the deck to keep them from drowning.

What is this a garden forum!?!? Lolz.

[Kayla]

Good thing I don't have to worry about the tomatoes!

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/zxyls.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Good thing I don't have to worry about the tomatoes!

 

 

 

All in good time... October is harvest month.   December is the month of snow.   

 

Way too much winter there!   Even Fairbanks is way warmer right now.   And the average growing season in Fairbanks is 110+ days... I think you said it was 100 days there this year.  

[Kayla]

All in good time... October is harvest month.   December is the month of snow.   

 

Way too much winter there!   Even Fairbanks is way warmer right now.   And the average growing season in Fairbanks is 110+ days... I think you said it was 100 days there this year.  

 

Yeah 100 days this year. Definitely pretty short up here, but like I said before we didn't move here for our garden. We moved here because of the winter weather and snow. And summers while short, are beautiful here as well.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah 100 days this year. Definitely pretty short up here, but like I said before we didn't move here for our garden. We moved here because of the winter weather and snow. And summers while short, are beautiful here as well.

 

 

Well... you are getting everything you wanted then!  

[Deweydog]

Feels fallish out!