October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crisp out for sure. It'll be interesting to see who ends up on the north of the low track in Oregon.

[MossMan]

46.

[liquidsnow]

It's the most boring time of the year.

[Deweydog]

It's the most boring time of the year.

The most wonderful time of the year is right on its heels.

[ShawniganLake]

46.

42. Tomorrow is going to be cool and damp.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Haha! 0z.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

[Timmy]

Haha! 0z.

Evan les rane

[Phil]

Looked beautiful there today! I saw some of the protest stuff on the news... but was focused on the weather there instead.

Funny, I thought about you when I was working outside today. “Tim would love this face-melting humidity”.

[FroYoBro]

It's going to snow tomorrow.

[Kayla]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A king's ransom for whomever can make Hour 384 of the GFS verify:  dry at Tim's house, but raining like a bastard at mine!

 

 

The long range GFS ensembles really want to kick off the rainy season in about 12-13 days...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F tonight.  Nice calm evening in the south valley. NAM brings the low onshore around Yachats and then southeast from there, which could set up some sexy d-bands for the valley...this just needs to be 2 months from now.

 

Oddly, models have trended south with this low over the past few runs. Let's hope this can also be a trend moving forward. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37 under clear skies. A bit cooler than I was expecting tonight. Ended up with 58/37 for Thursday after a 61/34 on Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW.... the 00Z EPS for the 5-10 period and the 10-15 period.   

 

 

[Deweydog]

Sunrise!

 

Pretty, but it's definitely a bad sign for this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise!

 

Pretty, but it's definitely a bad sign for this winter.

 

Andrew in Portland posted this just now on facebook...

 

[Jesse]

Even PDX made it down to 45, and improved on yesterday’s low before midnight. I figured they wouldn’t make it below 50.

 

42 for a low here, up to 44 now with clouds increasing and echoes moving inland. Looking like a pretty chilly and wet day.

[Jesse]

Gorgeous sunrise in progress.

[Phil]

FWIW.... the 00Z EPS for the 5-10 period and the 10-15 period.

 

 

I bet the Bermuda High overperforms again.

 

That motherf**ker is still in midsummer form.

[TT-SEA]

I bet the Bermuda High overperforms again.

 

That motherf**ker is still in midsummer form.

Can't stay like that forever right? The northern hemisphere is plunging into the depths of winter... that has to shake things up a little eventually.

[Phil]

Gusts to 112mph on Baffin Island today.

 

https://twitter.com/PurpleSaxifrage/status/1048196295964352512?s=20

[Tyler Mode]

Dropped to 38 before the clouds capped it.  Great sunrise, wish I was in a better place for pictures.

[Phil]

Can't stay like that forever right? The northern hemisphere is plunging into the depths of winter... that has to shake things up a little eventually.

You’d think so. It usually moves over to the Azores by the end of October, but sometimes it’s slow to do so. So far this year it has refused to budge. Reminds me of last year.

[Jesse]

I too failed to get a good picture of the sunrise. I was looking on Facebook for a good one to steal but no luck yet. Will keep you guys posted!

[Tyler Mode]

I too failed to get a good picture of the sunrise. I was looking on Facebook for a good one to steal but no luck yet. Will keep you guys posted!

I'll get you one soon, but it does NOT include the Mt. Hood shadow

[Blizzard777]

Spitting rain here and had a low of 40*

Lots of green inbound! Thought it was supposed to slip south

[Phil]

Since early July, there have been ZERO days with warmer than average 850mb temperatures over Baffin Island, and only 4 such days at the surface. Unreal!

 

Doesn’t matter how the pattern changes. They are ALWAYS in the cold.

 

GEFS:

 

[TT-SEA]

Spitting rain here and had a low of 40*

Lots off green inbound! Thought it was supposed to slip south

Models gave up on that idea 2 days ago.

[Jesse]

Models gave up on that idea 2 days ago.

As long as it’s raining in western Snohomish county before 11am I will be happy.

[Deweydog]

Sprinkles are for winners!

[Phil]

Nothing unusual w/ the PV yet.

 

Strengthening normally, and projected to continue doing so over the next 1-2 weeks.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Blizzard777]

Models gave up on that idea 2 days ago.

Futurecast on some news channel last night showed it slipping south before I closed my eyes. South sound at most got some sprinkles.....ugh! Not a good day to have an excavator crawling around your yard.

[Phil]

Winter is closing in. As others have pointed out already, we have our first EAMT event of the cold season upcoming, starting towards D5-6. Henceforth, this lends legitimacy to the NPAC jet extension/Aleutian Low pattern (which is now showing up on the models during week 2).

 

When it eventually cycles and the jet retracts, we’ll probably be looking at a rapid maturation of the wavetrain into a more winter-like state.

[Phil]

New ECMWF monthlies are out..

 

..digging its heels in.

[Deweydog]

Winter is closing in. As others have pointed out already, we have our first EAMT event of the cold season upcoming, starting towards D5-6. Henceforth, this lends legitimacy to the NPAC jet extension/Aleutian Low pattern (which is now showing up on the models during week 2).

 

When it eventually cycles and the jet retracts, we’ll probably be looking at a rapid maturation of the wavetrain into a more winter-like state.

Translation: It's October.

[TT-SEA]

If this is a Nino... it sure is disorganized.

 

[Jesse]

New ECMWF monthlies are out..

 

..digging its heels in.

Good info.