Clinton Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12Z RGEM is also showing this western part of the clipper with a decent 2-3" snow band across southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri, I feel like this has a good chance to pan out for you. These types of systems have been over producing this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks!12Z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12Z GEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa. DVN has Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa. DVN has That may have been based off 00Z runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I would be way excited if I land a WWA and end up with 3".DMX says 8:1 ratios at onset transitioning to 12-15:1 as the CAA moves in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Mighta been too quick to credit the NAM lol. Getting the trophy yanked away from it at FH18. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 LES might be a possibility on this side of the lake with this clipper. Something to keep an eye on for some additional flakes on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 No clue...I've seen him lurking on AmWx threads from time to time Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 La Crosse biting on the south trend. Added some counties and going with 2-4" iso 5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Wow, quite the SW trend this morning from the models. Canadian and GFS are giving me some reason for optimism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 RGEM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018111612/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 new GFS http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018111612/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 All models are showing a lil more moisture too. Good trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Liking where the snow is currently at on radar in the Dakotas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 HRRR has a bit of a convective look to it. Especially in the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves, could be some heavier rates in there. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018111615/018/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I might be up late tonight enjoying this system! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Warnings flying for a few areas in N Dakota. Last minute surprise on the way? That HRRR looks interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Nice to see some of you peeps west of me excited to track. Enjoy! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Euro also shifted further SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Total QPF 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I expect DMX and DVN to be issuing advisories anytime now since the Euro is out and has the SW trend as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Total QPF Capture.PNG Which model is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Which model is that?Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 wow mkx gives me a wwa! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Yeah, it's getting more interesting for the CR area. The HRRR is showing some pretty good snow rates from 2-5am. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just stepped outside at work. The air has that dense feeling and has that snow scent to it. It's very calm and the clouds are thick. Always love that anticipation right before a storm moves in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z EPS pretty much has a bulls-eye just NE of DSM into the northern/eastern part of IA. In line with what the op run was showing that Bud posted. Lighter precip as you head farther east into S WI/N IL but a general 1-2", maybe 2.5" in a few spots. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids. 3.1" by 6am. Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Somebody in IA is going to cash in close to 5-6" if that meso-scale banding can set up just right. Is an IA magnet gonna be a theme for a change?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids. 3.1" by 6am. Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours.What's it showing up this way Bud? I wonder if someone sees some convection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Annnnnnnd the sun is out lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Total QPF Capture.PNG Need to post the "qpf as SNOW" map with this being a mixed P-type scenario. Some of that may be non-snow Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 18z HRRR http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018111618/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 DVN is expanding the advisory, but only down to Waterloo/Dubuque. They must be skeptical of the farther south snow placement. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Its strange there is no advisory for CR... Point forecast in CR is now the same as Waterloo. (2 inches) btw... long time reader first time poster. i used to hand around the schnack blog with a few familiar names on this board. Cheers to a good Winter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Thanks Bud.Boom! I'm now in an advisory for 2-4". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Yea I’m expecting 2-3” on the north side of CR. Some models(HRRR/RAP) take us closer to 4”, but I don’t necessarily buy that. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 DMX updated their snow map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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