January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice little halo around the moon tonight. Photo doesn’t do it justice. The prequel to the display tomorrow night.

[Deweydog]

More runs ahead.

[MossMan]

More runs ahead.

Matt’s in charge of the night shift!

[BLI snowman]

Matt’s in charge of the night shift!

 

Thanks Matt!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Day 7-10 Block shifting west. Tilt needs work. I don't have access to Day 11-15.

 

Day 7

Day 10

 

Animated GIF

https://imgur.com/PPQIXeZ

[ShawniganLake]

 

00z EPS Day 7-10 Block shifting west. Tilt needs work. I don't have access to Day 11-15.

Animated GIF

https://imgur.com/PPQIXeZ

Gets closer around day 12 but then the block undercuts. Most of Canada is in the deep freeze thru day 15

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Gets closer around day 12 but then the block undercuts. Most of Canada is in the deep freeze thru day 15

 

70AE7C15-FD57-40D4-AD10-BE8924BE7BE4.pngA5A6F2D9-825E-42CC-A3E1-EE95C69DD13F.png

Thanks. Yeah, close.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Go 06Z GFS show us something! plz, pretty plz. Go west Arctic air there's no opportunities back east for you.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

06Z GFS looks different @ 156 hours then the 00Z GFS did.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Kona low @ hr. 180? maybe.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

I'm liking this run!

[ChilliwackBCwx]

You gotta like where this run maybe going Droppin?

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Oh yeah baby way different @ hour 240 on the 06Z GFS!

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Hour 256! it's our turn baby! Score!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z was VERY closer to delivering. Dang.

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 36 minutes

[ChilliwackBCwx]

6z was VERY closer to delivering. Dang.

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 36 minutes

Yup loved it much better, stay tuned it ain't over yet!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z FV3-GFS back door cold shot Day 8-9, then long range nearly a modified back door blast. Day 12 850s -14c moving south of Canadian border into north central, northeast Washington. Fairly close to a significant blast. Fairly close to a significant blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z FV3-GFS back door cold shot Day 8-9, then long range nearly a modified back door blast. Day 12 850s -14c moving south of Canadian border into north central, northeast Washington. Fairly close to a significant blast. Fairly close to a significant blast.

Day 11-12 Puget Sound SNOW!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS not bad ensembles. Mean temp isn't real chilly, but there are plenty of cold members, especially Gorge east.

 

12z GFS 3 hours 16 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z FV-3 is really interesting. Operational GFS is decent towards the end too. Ensemble mean is about the same. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moderate rain and 40 degrees. 0.28" of rain since midnight. 

[Jesse]

Looks like some moderate rainfall in the Portland area this morning. Good to see. Dry and overcast on the northern Olympic Peninsula. 39.

[Timmy]

12z gfs seems like it may go places around hour 210

[Gradient Keeper]

Best 500mb pattern in a long, long time on the 12z GFS. While not yet ideal, we do have a very strong, amplified block and kona low.

[TT-SEA]

Best 500mb pattern in a long, long time on the 12z GFS. While not yet ideal, we do have a very strong, amplified block and kona low.

 

Feb 1 - 5 period is still looking good.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern sets up around Day 7. Day 10+ is EXCELLENT

[Gradient Keeper]

I hope the ensembles improve at least a little.

 

12z ECMWF in 49 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I read these comments, looked at the run and was very underwhelmed. Then I reallized I was looking at the 06z again...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.51" at EUG so far today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ALERT!

 

 

[Bryant]

Feb 1 - 5 period is still looking good.

You pretty much wrote off that window of opportunity when the Euro changed its tune, but now it's back on huh?

 

#publicitystunt

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS not bad. Still some warm members 0c to +5c, but also plenty of cold members. Decent signal for backdoor cold. Progress, but it needs to continue. Considering how things looked the past 3-4 days, the past 2-3 model runs and ensembles are greatly improved.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely a little ensemble improvement. I think what the 12z showed is very unlikley, but a cooler wetter pattern is looking possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp has been slowly dropping all morning. Currently 38 with moderate rain continuing. 0.51" in the bucket since midnight. 

[TT-SEA]

You pretty much wrote off that window of opportunity when the Euro changed its tune, but now it's back on huh?

 

#publicitystunt

I never wrote off anything. Show me where I did that. I intentionally did not do that because I assumed the models could lock in on short notice.

 

I was told to stop selling it so hard... so I complied.

 

The only sure thing is that you will mock me regardless of what happens!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 500mb Analog Composite

Day 8-14

 

HUGE improvement. 94% correlation coefficient scoring isn't bad too. Let's keep this going!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

Very promising model runs this morning.  You could see the pst few days there was still a thread of hope and now the modles seem to be realy jumping on something.  Big ensemble improvment on the 12z as well.  We would be getting into very rarified territory to get hit around Feb 1 with warm ENSO.  1987-88 we came very close to a huge event in that time frame so it's not unheard of.  Interestingly Feb 1 or 2 is historically the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground and it has been very underrepresented this century so far.

 

On the subject of ENSO I think it's 50/50 whether we relieved enough heat in the Western Pacific this winter to preclude an El Nino next winter.  Next winter will likely be the bottom of the solar min so we do not want a Nino.  Having back to back warm ENSO years during a deep solar min would be extremely rare if not unheard of.

[snow_wizard]

 

12z GFS 500mb Analog Composite

Day 8-14

 

HUGE improvement. 94% correlation coefficient scoring isn't bad too. Let's keep this going!

 

 

You could really see the models gravitating toward this new idea on last nights 0z.  The idea is certainly being amplified today.  Three matches from Jan 1957!

[weatherfan2012]

Very promising model runs this morning. You could see the pst few days there was still a thread of hope and now the modles seem to be realy jumping on something. Big ensemble improvment on the 12z as well. We would be getting into very rarified territory to get hit around Feb 1 with warm ENSO. 1987-88 we came very close to a huge event in that time frame so it's not unheard of. Interestingly Feb 1 or 2 is historically the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground and it has been very underrepresented this century so far.

 

On the subject of ENSO I think it's 50/50 whether we relieved enough heat in the Western Pacific this winter to preclude an El Nino next winter. Newt winter will likely be the bottom of the solar min so we do not want a Nino. Having back to back warm ENSO years during a deep solar min would be extremely rare if not unheard of.

I have to agree with phil with the fact that we likey see a stronger nino forum this summer with next winter being a moderate or strong event.but only time will tell.but I don't think the system is ready for a strong nina system just yet.it would be very rare but this solar cycle has been behaving very oddly as well so if theres ever a time to expect something rare this maybe it lol.