jcmcgaffey Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nice little halo around the moon tonight. Photo doesn’t do it justice. The prequel to the display tomorrow night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 More runs ahead. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 More runs ahead.Matt’s in charge of the night shift! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Matt’s in charge of the night shift! Thanks Matt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z EPS Day 7-10 Block shifting west. Tilt needs work. I don't have access to Day 11-15. Day 7 Day 10 Animated GIF https://imgur.com/PPQIXeZ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z EPS Day 7-10 Block shifting west. Tilt needs work. I don't have access to Day 11-15. Animated GIF https://imgur.com/PPQIXeZGets closer around day 12 but then the block undercuts. Most of Canada is in the deep freeze thru day 15 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Gets closer around day 12 but then the block undercuts. Most of Canada is in the deep freeze thru day 15 70AE7C15-FD57-40D4-AD10-BE8924BE7BE4.pngA5A6F2D9-825E-42CC-A3E1-EE95C69DD13F.pngThanks. Yeah, close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Go 06Z GFS show us something! plz, pretty plz. Go west Arctic air there's no opportunities back east for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 06Z GFS looks different @ 156 hours then the 00Z GFS did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Kona low @ hr. 180? maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm liking this run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 You gotta like where this run maybe going Droppin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Oh yeah baby way different @ hour 240 on the 06Z GFS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Hour 256! it's our turn baby! Score! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z was VERY closer to delivering. Dang. 12z GFS in 4 hours 36 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z was VERY closer to delivering. Dang. 12z GFS in 4 hours 36 minutesYup loved it much better, stay tuned it ain't over yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z FV3-GFS back door cold shot Day 8-9, then long range nearly a modified back door blast. Day 12 850s -14c moving south of Canadian border into north central, northeast Washington. Fairly close to a significant blast. Fairly close to a significant blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z FV3-GFS back door cold shot Day 8-9, then long range nearly a modified back door blast. Day 12 850s -14c moving south of Canadian border into north central, northeast Washington. Fairly close to a significant blast. Fairly close to a significant blast.Day 11-12 Puget Sound SNOW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z GEFS not bad ensembles. Mean temp isn't real chilly, but there are plenty of cold members, especially Gorge east. 12z GFS 3 hours 16 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 06z FV-3 is really interesting. Operational GFS is decent towards the end too. Ensemble mean is about the same. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Moderate rain and 40 degrees. 0.28" of rain since midnight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like some moderate rainfall in the Portland area this morning. Good to see. Dry and overcast on the northern Olympic Peninsula. 39. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z gfs seems like it may go places around hour 210 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Best 500mb pattern in a long, long time on the 12z GFS. While not yet ideal, we do have a very strong, amplified block and kona low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Best 500mb pattern in a long, long time on the 12z GFS. While not yet ideal, we do have a very strong, amplified block and kona low. Feb 1 - 5 period is still looking good. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Pattern sets up around Day 7. Day 10+ is EXCELLENT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I hope the ensembles improve at least a little. 12z ECMWF in 49 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I read these comments, looked at the run and was very underwhelmed. Then I reallized I was looking at the 06z again... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 0.51" at EUG so far today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS ALERT! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Feb 1 - 5 period is still looking good. You pretty much wrote off that window of opportunity when the Euro changed its tune, but now it's back on huh? #publicitystunt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GEFS not bad. Still some warm members 0c to +5c, but also plenty of cold members. Decent signal for backdoor cold. Progress, but it needs to continue. Considering how things looked the past 3-4 days, the past 2-3 model runs and ensembles are greatly improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Definitely a little ensemble improvement. I think what the 12z showed is very unlikley, but a cooler wetter pattern is looking possible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Temp has been slowly dropping all morning. Currently 38 with moderate rain continuing. 0.51" in the bucket since midnight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 You pretty much wrote off that window of opportunity when the Euro changed its tune, but now it's back on huh? #publicitystuntI never wrote off anything. Show me where I did that. I intentionally did not do that because I assumed the models could lock in on short notice. I was told to stop selling it so hard... so I complied. The only sure thing is that you will mock me regardless of what happens! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GFS 500mb Analog Composite Day 8-14 HUGE improvement. 94% correlation coefficient scoring isn't bad too. Let's keep this going! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Very promising model runs this morning. You could see the pst few days there was still a thread of hope and now the modles seem to be realy jumping on something. Big ensemble improvment on the 12z as well. We would be getting into very rarified territory to get hit around Feb 1 with warm ENSO. 1987-88 we came very close to a huge event in that time frame so it's not unheard of. Interestingly Feb 1 or 2 is historically the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground and it has been very underrepresented this century so far. On the subject of ENSO I think it's 50/50 whether we relieved enough heat in the Western Pacific this winter to preclude an El Nino next winter. Next winter will likely be the bottom of the solar min so we do not want a Nino. Having back to back warm ENSO years during a deep solar min would be extremely rare if not unheard of. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GFS 500mb Analog Composite Day 8-14 HUGE improvement. 94% correlation coefficient scoring isn't bad too. Let's keep this going! You could really see the models gravitating toward this new idea on last nights 0z. The idea is certainly being amplified today. Three matches from Jan 1957! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Very promising model runs this morning. You could see the pst few days there was still a thread of hope and now the modles seem to be realy jumping on something. Big ensemble improvment on the 12z as well. We would be getting into very rarified territory to get hit around Feb 1 with warm ENSO. 1987-88 we came very close to a huge event in that time frame so it's not unheard of. Interestingly Feb 1 or 2 is historically the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground and it has been very underrepresented this century so far. On the subject of ENSO I think it's 50/50 whether we relieved enough heat in the Western Pacific this winter to preclude an El Nino next winter. Newt winter will likely be the bottom of the solar min so we do not want a Nino. Having back to back warm ENSO years during a deep solar min would be extremely rare if not unheard of. I have to agree with phil with the fact that we likey see a stronger nino forum this summer with next winter being a moderate or strong event.but only time will tell.but I don't think the system is ready for a strong nina system just yet.it would be very rare but this solar cycle has been behaving very oddly as well so if theres ever a time to expect something rare this maybe it lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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