January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can u post a map? What’s EUG at? I’m assuming a bit warmer.

 

Yeah I think EUG must have cloud cover. Only gets down to 30. 

[TT-SEA]

Reload looking more robust.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Bryant]

Euro quite the let down for those of us in Whatcom county

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I think EUG must have cloud cover. Only gets down to 30. 

 

Thursday morning lows only around freezing Puget Sound with clouds, EUG makes it to 24.

[Esquimalt]

What about Victoria?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WOW

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2019013112/portland/ecmwf_t2min_portland_31.png

Didn’t post

[Gradient Keeper]

[Esquimalt]

With the GFS backing off totals and the Euro, in general, either maintaining or increasing, I'm even more curious now to see the mesoscale models.

 

When you have that amount of cold, modified arctic air spilling out over the Pacific good surprises are much more likely than bad ones.

The gfs has been becoming more and more optimistic for my area. The euro is meh. I think the vast majority of people will see a few snowflakes at least

[Winterdog]

The reload looks better than the original.

[Phil]

00z EPS continues to look pretty nice for a mean at day 10.

 

Look at that East Coast ridge, not only holding everything in place but saying 'It's not your turn anymore' as well.

 

Not to rub it in, but I think we have plenty of turns left.

[TT-SEA]

Snow with the late week reload per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Phil]

Absolutely unbelievable how bad the 06z was. It was on the "warm" side of the ensembles, but they were a also a major step back.

The GFS/GEFS do have a bias for WHEM/Pacific convection, so keep that in mind. The rest of the models keep more convection over the IPWP in association with the ERW.

[Phil]

They really need to scrap the gfs and start fresh.

What I’ve been saying forever. It’s a piece of s**t.

[Phil]

Moline, IL (-33) and Cedar Rapids, IA (-30) also set all-time record lows this AM.

 

The coldest temp was in Cotton, MN with -56.

Wow, -56*F? Isn’t that the second coldest low ever observed in Minnesota?

 

I saw multiple all-time record lows on the Twitter IEM bot page for such things. I’ll have to dig thru them at some point.

[Phil]

Speaking of all-time record lows, where is wx-statman?

 

This is supposed to be his wheelhouse.

[Esquimalt]

Do you guys think the cold snap is losing its oomph in the models?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you guys think the cold snap is losing its oomph in the models?

 

I think its about the same. It's going to be well below normal in terms of temps, but not arctic.

[Esquimalt]

I think its about the same. It's going to be well below normal in terms of temps, but not arctic.

Wasn’t it looking Arctic for awhile?

[Esquimalt]

An awesome cold signal on the CFS weeklies for the week of February 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wasn’t it looking Arctic for awhile?

Not sure it was ever full-blown Arctic.

[TT-SEA]

53 and sunny here... want to soak it up before its gone!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wasn’t it looking Arctic for awhile?

 

Not really. Just a few run here and there. 

[kokaneekidz]

Yeah it may not get that warm again til early March or April perhaps....

53 and sunny here... want to soak it up before gone!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah it may not get that warm again til early March or April perhaps....

I have hope for the second half of February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have hope for the second half of February.

 

It would make sense to have a false spring stretch late in the month. 

[Bryant]

Hoping for an eastward shift in the home stretch

[TT-SEA]

It would make sense to have a false spring stretch late in the month. 

 

Could be real spring by then.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be real spring by then.   

 

Probably 4th of July weekend for that.

[Farmboy]

Wow this place soured quickly. I wouldn't be too hasty in discounting the upcoming cold period.

[Phil]

Wow..

 

[TT-SEA]

Probably 4th of July weekend for that.

 

 

Maybe!  

 

But its been a blocky year with low solar and that usually means a decent spring and early summer.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe!  

 

But its been a blocky year with low solar and that usually means a decent spring and early summer.    

 

I keep thinking we may have a near normal summer at some point after 6 straight hot ones...But maybe this won't be the year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe!

 

But its been a blocky year with low solar and that usually means a decent spring and early summer.

That’s good because the Willamette Valley is way overdue for a long hot and dry summer.

[Phil]

If all-time cold records can be shattered across the Midwest and Northeast, I don’t see why it can’t happen in the PNW too. At some point, it has to happen.

[TT-SEA]

That’s good because the Willamette Valley is way overdue for a long hot and dry summer.

I have no idea if it will be a hot and dry summer. I just don't think spring and early summer will be miserably cold and wet this year.

[Phil]

I have no idea if it will be a hot and dry summer. I just don't think spring and early summer will be miserably cold and wet this year.

It would be a good thing if spring was cold/wet, though.

[TT-SEA]

It would be a good thing if spring was cold/wet, though.

No. We can have a decent spring and summer without any extremes.

[Phil]