January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Did you have to quote the entire thing again? <_>

Why does Cliff bother showing the snow maps from the WRF?

[kokaneekidz]

He works for the UW and is therefore obligated to their computer systems.

 

 

Why does Cliff bother showing the snow maps from the WRF?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp...

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS for Monday morning...

 

 

 

Might just be the usual 18Z jump which is corrected on the 00Z run.   

[kokaneekidz]

One too many Knob Creeks on the rocks I assume....

 

18Z GFS for Monday morning...

 

 

 

Might just be the usual 18Z jump which is corrected on the 00Z run.   

[Esquimalt]

18Z GFS for Monday morning...

 

 

 

Might just be the usual 18Z jump which is corrected on the 00Z run.

Crap run. Highs can't stay below freezing for most places on Monday

[MossMan]

Well...GO ICON...??? Only model left that isn’t screwing us.

[Jesse]

18Z GFS says go west young man...

 

Your gut’s still looking good though. There will be snow somewhere. Forum meetup at Snoqualmie Pass?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very interesting 18z.  Stronger low that stays out in the ocean longer pumping moisture in. The rough snow map does show more snow for Western Wa than the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

It does show some snow around Seattle on Monday afternoon... but the GFS snowfall maps can be misleading with the precip type out here.  Usually too optimistic about snow vs rain in marginal situations.

 

That being said... I would expect the 00Z run to go back to what the 12Z run showed.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Why does Cliff bother showing the snow maps from the WRF?

I have found in my area the WRF is way, way more accurate than the global models when it comes to snow, though it is only useful within 48 hours max. That might also be because of the terrain here.

[kokaneekidz]

Mother nature is leaving us twisting in the wind for the moment. Hopefully she comes back around for us.

Very interesting 18z. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is pretty much worst case scenario.   

 

Throw it out!  

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday morning... low never comes inland.   It just keep chugging down the coast.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not nearly as cold as it was looking a few runs back on the gfs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have found in my area the WRF is way, way more accurate than the global models when it comes to snow, though it is only useful within 48 hours max. That might also be because of the terrain here.

The wrf has been spot on all winter at my cabin. 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah 18z GFS is...bad. The west trend is a bit concerning but I'm still going with the Euro.

 

Mark Nelsen has a new post to crush hopes and dreams:

 

"Each model is slightly different and I looked at ALL of them this morning.  A few things I notice so far…

1. Over the past two days models have pushed that cold trough farther west, going out over the ocean as I just mentioned.  This may be due to our general winter pattern (which continues through early February) of weak and “splitty” systems.  Any farther west and we could end up mainly/all dry Sunday through Tuesday.
2. Models have turned warmer the past 48 hours as well.  The GFS bottoms us out at a “marginal for snow” -7 degrees at 850mb.  ECMWF is now only a -7 to -8 Monday-Wednesday.  They were down around -10 to -12 at one point (mainly ECMWF).  If they back off much further we can say goodbye to snow chances for many of us in the lowlands.
3. The GFS and GEM, due to the orientation of the upper-level pattern, allow dry and colder modified arctic air to drift into Eastern Washington, come through the Gorge, and into the metro area.  If that occurs, we’ll be REAL cold Tuesday and beyond.  For now I’m discounting that in our 7 Day forecast.
4. Cold arctic air will be sitting close by (just north/east) for most/all of next week.  Any surface low that develops west of us or comes down the coastline?  We would be in the snowstorm business like late February 2018 or early February 2014.  At this moment I don’t see that on any models."

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 

Yeah 18z GFS is...bad. The west trend is a bit concerning but I'm still going with the Euro.

 

Mark Nelsen has a new post to crush hopes and dreams:

 

"Each model is slightly different and I looked at ALL of them this morning.  A few things I notice so far…

1. Over the past two days models have pushed that cold trough farther west, going out over the ocean as I just mentioned.  This may be due to our general winter pattern (which continues through early February) of weak and “splitty” systems.  Any farther west and we could end up mainly/all dry Sunday through Tuesday.
2. Models have turned warmer the past 48 hours as well.  The GFS bottoms us out at a “marginal for snow” -7 degrees at 850mb.  ECMWF is now only a -7 to -8 Monday-Wednesday.  They were down around -10 to -12 at one point (mainly ECMWF).  If they back off much further we can say goodbye to snow chances for many of us in the lowlands.
3. The GFS and GEM, due to the orientation of the upper-level pattern, allow dry and colder modified arctic air to drift into Eastern Washington, come through the Gorge, and into the metro area.  If that occurs, we’ll be REAL cold Tuesday and beyond.  For now I’m discounting that in our 7 Day forecast.
4. Cold arctic air will be sitting close by (just north/east) for most/all of next week.  Any surface low that develops west of us or comes down the coastline?  We would be in the snowstorm business like late February 2018 or early February 2014.  At this moment I don’t see that on any models."

 

Good chance to always look like the hero when you bet against snow.

[Esquimalt]

I was just comparinf the cold shown on the 18Z to previous runs. It’s hardly warmer, and we have a boatload if cold air on this side of the continent to draw from for Fraser outflow. Sure, the low on Sunday might not be as amazing looking as it once was, but there’s more than that with the upcoming pattern

[TT-SEA]

I was just comparinf the cold shown on the 18Z to previous runs. It’s hardly warmer, and we have a boatload if cold air on this side of the continent to draw from for Fraser outflow. Sure, the low on Sunday might not be as amazing looking as it once was, but there’s more than that with the upcoming pattern

 

If the 18Z run verified... this would be close to a non-event for most of us.   

 

Luckily its the 18Z run.  

[Esquimalt]

If the 18Z run verified... this would be close to a non-event for most of us.

 

Luckily its the 18Z run.

Why do you say that?

[Perturbed Member]

Good chance to always look like the hero when you bet against snow.

 

Yeah, I think Mark is top notch but the ridiculous conservatism is sometimes a bit frustrating. Through his experience though he has learned it is always best to bet on climo and win, he has just become even more conservative as he got older. 

 

 

In fairness he did add this:

 

"The chance for getting SOME snow at SOME point in the next two weeks is the best we’ve seen the entire season.  15 of 21 GFS ensemble members are producing at least 2″ snow (total) in the next 15 days.  At Salem, 40 of 51 ECMWF ensemble members produce at least 2″ snow (total) in the next 15 days.  Odds are definitely looking up

"

[Gradient Keeper]

It seems to be a definite trend to progressively and gradually shift the arctic trough further west, but is it the *final* trend and locked in? Might be. Hard to say we have 3-4 model runs to go I feel before details are really nailed down. Also given the arctic trough is only crossing the Yukon border in 24 hours there could be some minor discrepancies in the flow pattern over Northern and Central British Columbia. It depends on the exact position and orientation of the block as well as how the arctic trough phases with the energy off the southern Oregon Coast. It COULD possibly swing back in our favor, but don't get your hopes up.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours

[Deweydog]

 

Yeah, I think Mark is top notch but the ridiculous conservatism is sometimes a bit frustrating. Through his experience though he has learned it is always best to bet on climo and win, he has just become even more conservative as he got older.

 

 

In fairness he did add this:

 

"The chance for getting SOME snow at SOME point in the next two weeks is the best we’ve seen the entire season. 15 of 21 GFS ensemble members are producing at least 2″ snow (total) in the next 15 days. At Salem, 40 of 51 ECMWF ensemble members produce at least 2″ snow (total) in the next 15 days. Odds are definitely looking up

"

He predicted 1-27-96 seven days out. His Saturday broadcast had “snowstorm” for the following Saturday. Talk about peaking early...

[TT-SEA]

Why do you say that?

 

 

Look at the surface maps above.  Too far west... real cold air is blocked... very little snow even precipitation for that matter. 

 

That is what Mark Nelsen was referring to when he said any further west and it would actually be pretty dry from Sunday - Tuesday.   

[Geos]

That is one gorgeous looking wide berthed low... Not too strong or tightly wound. Keep it wide and not too strong with a juicy atmosphere to work with. Its GO time !!!!

 

That looks pretty good.

 

Been trying to catch up on this thread the last day and a half. lol

 

So overall it looks like winter is visiting for a week at least...

 

Those stores that have flowers out will look pretty goofy for putting them out come Sunday!

[FroYoBro]

If the 18Z run verified... this would be close to a non-event for most of us.   

 

Luckily its the 18Z run.  

 

That last line seems kind of silly to me. It is obvious that almost all models trended a bit to the west and subsequently warmer today. Obviously it isn't set in stone, but we are starting to get pretty close to the event and these aren't trends you want to see. I wouldn't just throw out the 18z altogether. Still a chance for goodies, but I wouldn't throw out model trends for a gut feeling. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The trend to split energy and keep us dry will likely continue.  Frustrating nino-type progression continues.

[Deweydog]

This actually bears some similarities to January 2005. Splitting of a robust Arctic trough due to too much cyclogenesis. Cheers!

 

Good thing is the models never went hog wild with 1950-esque solutions prior to picking up on this dynamic.

[TT-SEA]

This actually bears some similarities to January 2005. Splitting of a robust Arctic trough due to too much cyclogenesis. Cheers!

 

Good thing is the models never went hog wild with 1950-esque solutions prior to picking up on this dynamic.

 

Is this worthy of an "UGGGHHHHHH"?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60 in Springfield 

[Phil]

Phil chimes in, things trend warmer.

 

‘Nuf said.

Tim isn’t the one controlling the weather.

 

Oh, and the ice age *is* coming. All these record smashing cold polar vortex outbreaks into the Midwest/Northeast are just the warning shots. The last five glacial inceptions actually did begin over NE-Canada...which is why I’m sending the cold over there, and away from the PNW, where it’s wasted.

[Esquimalt]

This actually bears some similarities to January 2005. Splitting of a robust Arctic trough due to too much cyclogenesis. Cheers!

 

Good thing is the models never went hog wild with 1950-esque solutions prior to picking up on this dynamic.

What did January of ‘05 bring

[TT-SEA]

60 in Springfield 

 

 

Nice!  

 

58 here.

 

Comfortable weather is pleasant.   

[TT-SEA]

What did January of ‘05 bring

 

 

Don't ask.  

 

The biggest model failure in the history of models.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Deweydog]

Don't ask.

 

The biggest model failure in the history of models.

Not a dead ringer but it has a similar theme...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0107.php#picture

 

We had the “reload” with that as well.

[Esquimalt]

Not a dead ringer but it has a similar theme...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0107.php#picture

 

We had the “reload” with that as well.

D**n. How much before the event did it fall apart?

[Deweydog]

Tim isn’t the one controlling the weather.

 

Oh, and the ice age *is* coming. All these record smashing cold polar vortex outbreaks into the Midwest/Northeast are just the warning shots. The last five glacial inceptions actually did begin over NE-Canada...which is why I’m sending the cold over there, and away from the PNW, where it’s wasted.

Well today was delightful. Thank you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well...We haven't lost the ICON yet.