gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 North dakota! The worst blowing around here will probably actually be Tuesday afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Chicago is def gonna reel this one away from meI doubt it. They might get a good hit especially northern parts but you’re in a very good spot. Latest HRRR looking right on track. Edit: in fact, latest HRRR and RAP have areas north of me getting blasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 What do ya know... the south trend is real? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Long live the king... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 NAM takes the low into N IL as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 NAM is also a lot more juiced up than previous run. Band of 12-16 from LSE over to Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Way more juiced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 HRRR is also juiced showing 16+ in spots but it’s way to strong compared to other models pressure wise http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012712&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Locked and loaded. Those bands on the 3k NAM. Wowzers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not liking that HRRR. Way more north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 3km nam and 12km nam pretty much in 100% agreement with the placement of the band and amounts 3k: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012712&fh=33&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4km Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not liking that HRRR. Way more north.low pressure and vort a long ways away not sure how well it will perform run to run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Woah. I didn’t look at the NAM runs past hr 20. Those totals are on the increase. Hmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAMs are south with the surface low, but they've dried out the moisture plume over Iowa a bit. Here in Cedar Rapids, we only get front-end snow for 5-6 hours and then the dry slot swoops in. 2-3" may be all we can get. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAMs are south with the surface low, but they've dried out the moisture plume over Iowa a bit. Here in Cedar Rapids, we only get front-end snow for 5-6 hours and then the dry slot swoops in. 2-3" may be all we can get.Dry air in Iowa? No way.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z RGEM is the wettest run of any model in days for the CR/IC area. It has the 0.50" line down to CR. I think I'd lean more toward the 0.20-0.30" of other models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm glad to see the NAM finally show some hefty totals for my area (12-15"). Hopefully the GFS goes back to it's previous runs. 06z was not very impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z gfs coming in a good bit south from 6z... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 That’s a decent shift south. SLP looks like it’s in central Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Chicago magnet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah, the northern models have really come south, so there's a pretty good consensus now (as there should be considering it's almost here) the low will move ese to near Cedar Rapids and then east from there. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah, the northern models have really come south, so there's a pretty good consensus now (as there should be considering it's almost here) the low will move ese to near Cedar Rapids and then east from there.12Z GFS looks really good for CR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Milwaukee gets crushed this run 4 mb stronger and a bit more NW at 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Much better run for Cedar Rapids and even Iowa City getting close to 4” on this run. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Madison with 15+ and still snowing through hr 27 Cuts the total almost in half up this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z GFS 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z GFS...those are some heft totals just across the "cheddar curtain"... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 QPF quite a bit higher in Iowa. I wanna see radar trends before I get too excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Man, the GFS and HRRR are on different planets this morning. The HRRR has the snow band WAY north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Both the 12z RGEM/GFS look identical in terms of track and strength...this is a dream run for Lehs for MKE and maybe as far south as Racine Kenosha, WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 6z Madison: 9.8Milwaukee: 11.8 12z Madison: 16.7Milwaukee: 16.9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow GFS with 9+ imby. Cant wait for the other 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Chi town could get blasted if the south trend continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gonna be a fun nowcast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Back in the saddle after a long day yesterday. This has been a nail biter tracking this system around these parts trying to see if we can score some of the heavier snows. It's finally nice to see a true hybrid clipper tracking through the region and laying down quite the expansive snow shield. All the model data is pointing towards S/C Wisco get shellacked! Nice to see the 00z Euro still trying to painting 6"+ across I-88 on north. Boy, places from Kenosha, WI on north are in an ideal spot for Lehs and then back-end LES. There are prob going to be multiple bands coming in off LM into the MKE area. Meantime, not sure if this is just noise, but there has been an ever so slight S trend in the higher rez models across N IL. For instance, check out the animations below from both the high rez NAM and RGEM. You can see the last 4 runs a notable S/SW trend in the track of the SLP across IA. It's not necessarily a big deal for those across MN/WI but indeed something to monitor for N IA into N IL and points East. Also, if you look at the most recent trends off the NAM the heavier precip is skirting a tad south as well. Yeah, but what it does to help IA, it steals from SWMI by turning NE quicker. Not gonna get my vote ofc Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wagons South.....12z GFS southGFS south12z GGEM south Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 6z Madison: 9.8Milwaukee: 11.8 12z Madison: 16.7Milwaukee: 16.9Kenosha/Racine special? Probably not, but they always seem to get the big totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 FV3 juiced and loaded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z FV3 Doesn't bring the 0.50" qpf as far south as the GFS, so it's probably more realistic. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 CMC lowered snowfall amounts in the heaviest band and is further South. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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