Polite Politics

[Andie]

Anyone else think Niki Haley is the new Liz Cheney?  
Certainly feels that way.  

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Anyone else think Niki Haley is the new Liz Cheney?  
Certainly feels that way.  

She isn't the one who is openly anti-Trump and wants him in jail.

[hawkstwelve]

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Anyone else think Niki Haley is the new Liz Cheney?  
Certainly feels that way.  

That's very intentional.  

Think about the common denominator.

I hope when Haley ultimately bows out, she doesn't kiss the ring. It will ruin her chances in 2028.  She's gotta think the long game.

Desantis and tim Scott can f*ck right off.

[SnarkyGoblin]

How does this guy win elections...

Quote

Former President Donald J. Trump laid out what’s in store for America should he or President Biden win the 2024 presidential election, using a Saturday speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference to cast one nearly utopian vision of the country’s future and one reminiscent of a postapocalyptic movie.

If Mr. Biden is re-elected for a second four-year term, Mr. Trump warned in his speech, Medicare will “collapse.” Social Security will “collapse.” Health care in general will “collapse.” So, too, will public education. Millions of manufacturing jobs will be “choked off into extinction.” The U.S. economy will be “starved of energy” and there will be “constant blackouts.” The Islamist militant group Hamas will “terrorize our streets.” There will be a third world war and America will lose it. America itself will face “obliteration.”

On the other hand, Mr. Trump promised on Saturday that if he is elected America will be “richer and safer and stronger and prouder and more beautiful than ever before.” Crime in major cities? A thing of the past.

“Chicago could be solved in one day,” Mr. Trump said. “New York could be solved in a half a day there.”

It’s impossible to fact-check the future. But Mr. Trump’s speech at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Maryland sounded familiar — like 2016 or 2020 all over again.

In his 2020 campaign, Mr. Trump warned that Mr. Biden would “confiscate your guns,” and “destroy your suburbs.” He predicted that the economy would sink into a depression worse than the 1930s Great Depression and that the “stock market will crash.” A Biden presidency, he predicted four years ago, “would mean that America’s seniors have no air conditioning during the summer, no heat during the winter and no electricity during peak hours.” And, he warned in July 2020, “you will have no more energy coming out of the great state of Texas, out of New Mexico, out of anywhere.”

Some of those past predictions are now checkable, and have turned out to be fictions. The stock market has hit record highs under the Biden administration. Guns haven’t been confiscated. Air conditioning is as good or bad as it ever was. And under Mr. Biden, the United States is producing more oil — not only more than it did under Mr. Trump but more than any country ever has.

 

[roadtonowhere08]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

Talk is cheap.  They gonna vote Biden then?  Abstain and potentially let Biden win?

What I would like to see is an in depth study that tracks the amount of voters who vote the other party in each presidential election.  Do these people make good on these statements, or is it just talk?

[roadtonowhere08]

42 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

How does this guy win elections...

 

How are people so easily fooled?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

Bitter losers, but few will stick to that. 0% of Trump voters wouldn't piss on her if she was on fire, let alone vote for her. 

Edited February 25 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I guess Alabama ended IVF? Id prefer to see surrogacy ended first, but I’m completely fine with this. Sorry. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, they are. Some even post on this forum…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/there-s-a-major-unknown-of-this-election-are-the-people-being-polled-about-it-lying/ar-BB1iKiqo

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bitter losers, but few will stick to that. 0% of Trump voters would piss on her if she was on fire, let alone vote for her. 

Stay classy.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

They are afraid she endorses Biden and she will be viewed as the reason why Biden won 2024 if that happens.

It's just dumb to think any one person has that kind of power to persuade voters.  Anyone who changes their mind just because of her endorsing Biden (if she does) should not be voting.

[snow_wizard]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

Well...There is no way SC will vote Democrat.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, they are. Some even post on this forum…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/there-s-a-major-unknown-of-this-election-are-the-people-being-polled-about-it-lying/ar-BB1iKiqo

I think this is why Haley is staying in the race.  She is hoping Trump will either drop dead or be found guilty of something.  That would leave her as the obvious choice to pick up the pieces and move on.

After all these years the fact he has yet to be found guilty of an actual crime speaks volumes.  It's all an illusion designed to take him out.  Even Alan Dershowitz has said the cases they are bringing against Trump are ridiculous.

[hawkstwelve]

12 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

Talk is cheap.  They gonna vote Biden then?  Abstain and potentially let Biden win?

What I would like to see is an in depth study that tracks the amount of voters who vote the other party in each presidential election.  Do these people make good on these statements, or is it just talk?

Many times those disillusioned voters will "come home" by the time the general rolls around and vote for whoever the party nominee is at that point. Normally it wittles down to about 10% of the party being holdouts, so I wouldn't expect that full 60% to hold. That being said, I don't see a large "come home" movement this cycle because we already know who Donald Trump is and what he will bring. You either love him or hate him, and it's become apparent during this primary cycle that 20-40% of the Republican Party hates him. 

Trump lost in 2020 with about 90% of Republicans supporting him and a minority of Independents. If he really can't convince that 20-40% of the party to vote for him, I don't see how it's possible that he will win. 

[hawkstwelve]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...There is no way SC will vote Democrat.

That number is consistent with the same percentages in Iowa and New Hampshire that said they will not vote for him. See my post above to roadtonowhere.

He claimed last night "the Republican Party has never been more united" but that could not be further from the truth. The problem for Trump is both his support and his detractors are all but baked in at this point. It's going to be an incredibly long, tough road ahead to try and convince Republicans like me (and the other 20-40% of the Party who thinks like me) to vote for him come November. If he's not successful, hell maybe even if he is, Joe Biden wins.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...There is no way SC will vote Democrat.

Yeah, Trump is ahead by like 15% in general election polls there. This sounds like fake news. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

That number is consistent with the same percentages in Iowa and New Hampshire that said they will not vote for him. See my post above to roadtonowhere.

He claimed last night "the Republican Party has never been more united" but that could not be further from the truth. The problem for Trump is both his support and his detractors are all but baked in at this point. It's going to be an incredibly long, tough road ahead to try and convince Republicans like me (and the other 20-40% of the Party who thinks like me) to vote for him come November. If he's not successful, hell maybe even if he is, Joe Biden wins.

Trump is going to do better with independents. He’s losing white upper middle class republicans while working class Hispanics and Black men surge towards him. If none of these people will vote for him then how come he leads in all these general election polls? But at the end of the day maybe these little nuggets you keep dropping will convince your party to stick with Biden. 

[Hoosier]

12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, they are. Some even post on this forum…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/there-s-a-major-unknown-of-this-election-are-the-people-being-polled-about-it-lying/ar-BB1iKiqo

I absolutely think that some of the people who say they wouldn't vote for Trump if he's convicted would end up voting for him when it comes down to it.  Some are just too shy to acknowledge it.  The question is all in the numbers.

[hawkstwelve]

Trump is pretty much running as an incumbent and yet 40% of his party is voting for someone other than him. Think of it this way: If 40% of Democrats were voting for Dean Phillips in the Democrat primary, MAGA would point to that and yell about how even a large portion of Democrats hate Biden (which would arguably be true) and that he doesn't have a shot in November. And yet because it's Haley who is pulling 40% consistently, we are getting gaslit into believing the Republican Party is unified and she's just a looney Democrat in disguise. What a bunch of BS.

Ultimately, this primary cycle has shown deep divisions within the Republican Party but Trump has shown no signs at trying to unite the party. In fact, he has said multiple times that Republicans who support Haley are not welcome in MAGA. If he keeps up with that type of rhetoric he can kiss the general election goodbye.

[Deweydog]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bitter losers, but few will stick to that. 0% of Trump voters would piss on her if she was on fire, let alone vote for her. 

RIP Phil Hartman

[Andie]

12 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

After all these years the fact he has yet to be found guilty of an actual crime speaks volumes.  It's all an illusion designed to take him out.  Even Alan Dershowitz has said the cases they are bringing against Trump are ridiculous.

Dershowitz is one of the few solid Democrats I listen to and take to heart.   
He’s been proven to be a reliably objective lawyer.  Some of his opinions I don’t like but he’s grounded in the law.  Best to at least consider his words in all seriousness.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trump is pretty much running as an incumbent and yet 40% of his party is voting for someone other than him. Think of it this way: If 40% of Democrats were voting for Dean Phillips in the Democrat primary, MAGA would point to that and yell about how even a large portion of Democrats hate Biden (which would arguably be true) and that he doesn't have a shot in November. And yet because it's Haley who is pulling 40% consistently, we are getting gaslit into believing the Republican Party is unified and she's just a looney Democrat in disguise. What a bunch of BS.

Ultimately, this primary cycle has shown deep divisions within the Republican Party but Trump has shown no signs at trying to unite the party. In fact, he has said multiple times that Republicans who support Haley are not welcome in MAGA. If he keeps up with that type of rhetoric he can kiss the general election goodbye.

Haley has a following, but the 40% thing happened in New Hampshire (very moderate/independent) and her home state of South Carolina.  I don't see her getting to 40% in too many more states.  In fact, she will get demolished in some of the more MAGA/Trumpy states that have yet to vote.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I absolutely think that some of the people who say they wouldn't vote for Trump if he's convicted would end up voting for him when it comes down to it.  Some are just too shy to acknowledge it.  The question is all in the numbers.

It's illogical to think someone supporting Trump now would turn against him after a conviction in a kangaroo court. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trump is pretty much running as an incumbent and yet 40% of his party is voting for someone other than him. Think of it this way: If 40% of Democrats were voting for Dean Phillips in the Democrat primary, MAGA would point to that and yell about how even a large portion of Democrats hate Biden (which would arguably be true) and that he doesn't have a shot in November. And yet because it's Haley who is pulling 40% consistently, we are getting gaslit into believing the Republican Party is unified and she's just a looney Democrat in disguise. What a bunch of BS.

Ultimately, this primary cycle has shown deep divisions within the Republican Party but Trump has shown no signs at trying to unite the party. In fact, he has said multiple times that Republicans who support Haley are not welcome in MAGA. If he keeps up with that type of rhetoric he can kiss the general election goodbye.

A large number of Trump supporters are not part of the Republican party. Or if they are, they aren't the kind of voters who frequently turn out for primaries that are barely contested. 

 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's illogical to think someone supporting Trump now would turn against him after a conviction in a kangaroo court. 

Well, I don't think anybody is going to give a crap if he's convicted in the Stormy Daniels case. 

If the DC federal trial occurs before the election and results in a conviction, perhaps a small number of supporters would turn away, but who really knows for sure.  We've never seen something like this before and a conviction could probably be spun by team Trump as part of a witch hunt that had a heavily biased DC jury.  

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

That number is consistent with the same percentages in Iowa and New Hampshire that said they will not vote for him. See my post above to roadtonowhere.

He claimed last night "the Republican Party has never been more united" but that could not be further from the truth. The problem for Trump is both his support and his detractors are all but baked in at this point. It's going to be an incredibly long, tough road ahead to try and convince Republicans like me (and the other 20-40% of the Party who thinks like me) to vote for him come November. If he's not successful, hell maybe even if he is, Joe Biden wins.

I will say I don't think Trump could win if it's anybody but Biden running against him.  The real unknown, however, is how Kennedy might effect the final outcome.  In the end I can't imagine anyone on our side voting for Biden.  The guy is an utter train wreck.

This is one of the strangest Presidential elections to ever take place in this country bar none.  Somehow both sides are going to end up with horribly unpopular candidates.  A lot of Democrats feel just as helpless as a lot of Republicans right now.  I will vote for Trump, even though he wasn't my top choice.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

Dershowitz is one of the few solid Democrats I listen to and take to heart.   
He’s been proven to be a reliably objective lawyer.  Some of his opinions I don’t like but he’s grounded in the law.  Best to at least consider his words in all seriousness.  

I'm sure it has pained him to have to defend Trump time after time.  He does it though.

[Andie]

Hmmm.  So is the UN behind the border invasion into the US?  
And why?  

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/former-panama-border-chief-claims-united-nations-is/

[SnarkyGoblin]

16 minutes ago, Andie said:

Hmmm.  So is the UN behind the border invasion into the US?  
And why?  

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/former-panama-border-chief-claims-united-nations-is/

It's not a f*cking invasion.

[Andie]

19 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

It's not a f*cking invasion.

Try coping with on your border. Ranchers down there are losing money hand over fist.  
Wanna switch with them? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

It's not a f*cking invasion.

Then what is it? 

[Andie]

Can we have an election do over?  

We know Joe is exhibiting signs of advanced age, but recently Donald has as well, calling Melania, Melissa, and speaking one gaff after another.  
Age limits for office might be wise too.  
We don’t need an old duffer in the WH and both these guys are past it.  

[MossMan]

The country needs to follow what the Seahawks did…Going from the oldest leader to the youngest! No more crusty oldies!! 

[SnarkyGoblin]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Then what is it? 

The migration of people you apparently hate for no good reason.

Based on the simple definition, an invasion requires the group to be armed. 

It's typical racist fear mongering that Trump has normalized.

[Andie]

Immigration should be structured better.  We are all descendants of immigrants or are immigrants.  
But structure, knowing who is here, is important to national security. This has been done with little attention to security and many came in between entry points. It’s already been posed by both officials and the media as a security risk via terrorism. 
We are a welcoming nation. But no one wants an attack. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

The migration of people you apparently hate for no good reason.

Based on the simple definition, an invasion requires the group to be armed. 

It's typical racist fear mongering that Trump has normalized.

Hmmmm… Migration. I don’t hate them. They just need to go home. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm… Migration. I don’t hate them. They just need to go home. 

But why?  Give me a good reason. These folks will do jobs that "superior" citizens don't want to do.  And we have had a severe labor shortage.  Makes no sense even economically.  

Drugs? - https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

Crime? - https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-crime-0

"The results are similar to our other work on illegal immigration and crime in Texas. In 2018, the illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 782 per 100,000 illegal immigrants, 535 per 100,000 legal immigrants, and 1,422 per 100,000 native‐born Americans. The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native‐born Americans in Texas. The general pattern of native‐born Americans having the highest criminal conviction rates followed by illegal immigrants and then with legal immigrants having the lowest holds for all of other specific types of crimes such as violent crimes, property crimes, homicide, and sex crimes."

Those are the 2 arguments I've seen on here and one can easily do a quick google search for the original conservative Cato Institute refuting these kinds of myths that are rampant across conservative "media".

Migrants are an ultimate net positive to society and our country..  They were in the 1930's/40s and they are now...as long as you don't care about what they look like or where they are from. 

And that, sir, is the crux of this particular topic.

[Andie]

We have an immigration procedure for many reasons but one is to screen out people with criminal backgrounds.  NYC is beginning to see a rise in crime from Venezuelan perpetrators that are robbing citizens.
They come here with no job or prospects and of course they’re desperate.  
This is so poorly thought out/ not thought out at all.  And most head for the larger cities.  This is not a plan. It’s more like chaos.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

But why?  Give me a good reason. These folks will do jobs that "superior" citizens don't want to do.  And we have had a severe labor shortage.  Makes no sense even economically.  

Drugs? - https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

Crime? - https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-crime-0

"The results are similar to our other work on illegal immigration and crime in Texas. In 2018, the illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 782 per 100,000 illegal immigrants, 535 per 100,000 legal immigrants, and 1,422 per 100,000 native‐born Americans. The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native‐born Americans in Texas. The general pattern of native‐born Americans having the highest criminal conviction rates followed by illegal immigrants and then with legal immigrants having the lowest holds for all of other specific types of crimes such as violent crimes, property crimes, homicide, and sex crimes."

Those are the 2 arguments I've seen on here and one can easily do a quick google search for the original conservative Cato Institute refuting these kinds of myths that are rampant across conservative "media".

Migrants are an ultimate net positive to society and our country..  They were in the 1930's/40s and they are now...as long as you don't care about what they look like or where they are from. 

And that, sir, is the crux of this particular topic.

Quoting an open borders think tank I see. 

It used to be illegals did jobs no one wanted. Now they don't even work. 

As for fentanyl, cleaver trick there using "conviction" rate. These folx are slipping in and out of the country if they are ever caught  it's usually catch and release  and they just disappear. Also they are the ones bringing it into the US, once it gets here it's distributed by whomever. Unbelievable. This kind of thinking has destroyed a once great nation.