Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Good morning. It looks like the 6z set of model runs showed good improvements. We're headed into the 4th quarter. Think Cold and Heavy Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 WOW The EURO/EPS has been hinting at this reload for a while now. February 1995 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The 12z NAM running..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The 12z NAM running..... Prey for Sno. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Chicago ended up below 0 for 52 straight hours. The 4th longest such streak in the cities history and 15 hour longer than the infamous "polar vortex" of 2014. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nam is also suggesting a little further east on the 06Z update. ICON continues to hang in to the chillier solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Finishing up my January stats. Looks like I ended up with about a +1.5 temp anomaly. 16 sub freezing minima, I think I only had 6 sub freezing lows last January. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12z NAM has Bellingham below freezing by 6z Sunday, that's the earliest any model has shown yet. I went to sleep at 8:30pm last night and just woke up at 6... Earliest I've fallen asleep and slept through the night since December 11th 2008...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12Z NAM update looking further east and north than its 06Z run. Hmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 NAM looks slightly East again. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 NAM doesn't really end up any better. A little worse. Darn. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12Z NAM update looking further east and north than its 06Z run. Hmmmm Not really. It ends up in the same spot later Sunday into Monday. 12Z run on Monday morning... 00Z run on Monday morning... 12Z run: 00Z run: **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Not really. It ends up in the same spot on Sunday and a little farther south by Monday. 12Z run on Monday morning... 00Z run on Monday morning... Things seemed further north east earlier in the run and now it ended up like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Things seemed further north east earlier in the run and now it ended up like thisI think the 06Z was a little slower. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 NAM only shows 0.30" of precip for Eugene between now and Monday 4pm. That's going to probably be the limiting factor up here more than temps. Just very little moisture unless we can get some kind of deformation. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12z NAM has Bellingham below freezing by 6z Sunday, that's the earliest any model has shown yet. I went to sleep at 8:30pm last night and just woke up at 6... Earliest I've fallen asleep and slept through the night since December 11th 2008......Oh nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ICON RUNNING NOW. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just woke up. Good morning. I am sure you noticed the 6z GFS nudged the track of the low further east FV3 a bit and a nice reload. 6z ICON snowy. NAM nudged east too. Also importantly note where the arctic trough digs off BC it's hugging a bit closer to the coast line instead of further out that should keep the air mass a bit colder. I also noticed that trend last night on 00z GFS, FV3, EURO of holding the arctic trough further southwest wasn't there on 6z. Don't rule out 12z runs to shift the low a notch east. For PDX metro We have keep an eye on any lows that linger from Tillamook to Newport as Colder air is likely to creep down into the Columbia Basin and those lows will pull in Colder, Drier air. 12z ICON looks to be snowy too. 12z GFS in 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Still 30 hours until the arctic trough is just into central BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ICON is SLIGHTLY colder through hour 84. Still the coldest model out there. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ICON is SLIGHTLY colder through hour 84. Still the coldest model out there.I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes. 12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes. 12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes I don't think it has a cold bias. I haven't noticed one at least. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes. 12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutesThis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes. 12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutesTends to have more of a really hot model bias, 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 1 arctic trough a NOTCH further south than 6z, Arctic air in southern BC a notch further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nah, I just don't think we'll see any changes with where the arctic trough moves off southwestern BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12Z GfS going a little west with that low. Positioning is a bit closer to the 06Z than the 00Z thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Yeah Day 2 trough axis orientation too elongated again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 12Z GfS going a little west with that low Yeah... definite westward shift from 06Z run and a little worse than the 00Z run late Sunday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Monday morning... 00Z run... And the new 12Z run... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 3 arctic trough is actually a tiny notch further southwest than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Deformation is a little further south on Tuesday morning... maybe Andrew will get in on the action? **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances. February looks pretty cold... don't see a hint of a pattern change on the EPS yet. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 It's February now, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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