February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[joaqweri]

GEM is also starting to roll out. GFS out to 78hrs, has precip starting as mixed in seattle on friday afternoon

[wxmet]

GFS showing some strong winds out of the south at 850mb leading to rain.

[joaqweri]

precip changing over to snow completely by early saturday morning

[bainbridgekid]

00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma.

 

EDIT: 14" in Seattle by 4 PM Saturday. Unbelievable.

[Requiem]

Well, congrats Puget Sound on a great GFS run so far! Perhaps more moisture is better for old P-Town?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That ECMWF map showed about 7-10 inches in parts of Seattle, with 3-6 inches in the PDX area.

 

The map that Cliff Mass posted looked more like 4-7" in Seattle and 4-6" in PDX. Obviously the potential is far greater and wider spread with this one.

[Esquimalt]

GEM thru hour 114 has 8 inches in Victoria, Seattle and Portland. Nice!

[joaqweri]

looking at the gfs closer on weathernerds.org

[TT-SEA]

00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma.

 

That just seems out of sync with the precip maps.    It does not even turn over to snow until early Saturday morning in Seattle.

 

Remember that the GFS snowfall totals are often comically overstated.    

 

Not saying it won't snow, but we should probably caveat these things for members not familiar with the model biases.

[Randyc321]

00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma.

If this happens as it’s been showing it will be interesting to watch. I’ve never lived on the island during a bid snowfall. East Brem in 2008 and that was pretty shut down. I can only imagine what Bainbridge will be like.

[Blizzard777]

I have fir trees protecting me from the sun angle!

28* and expecting awesome model runs that will keep me awake once again

 

Glad to see so many new members !

[joaqweri]

gfs has snow in seattle friday afternoon at.... 36F.

[Esquimalt]

Graphics?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.

[joaqweri]

on which model snowmizer?

[Requiem]

Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.

 

Little breezy, huh?

[TT-SEA]

Sunday morning on the 00Z GFS looks just like yesterday evening.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That low is really stalling out on the GFS, looks amazing over a wide area. The GFS has been very consistent on a major snow event Friday - Saturday.

[joaqweri]

gfs has seattle reaching a more reasonable temp for snow 4am saturday, around 32-33F

[runninthruda206]

Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.

Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right?

[joaqweri]

bottom line, gfs has precip in seattle from 00z saturday (4pm friday) until 18z sunday (10am)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

on which model snowmizer?

gfs

[TT-SEA]

And just for perspective... the 12Z ECMWF showed a temperature of 30 degrees in Seattle on Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. with the precip starting as snow.

[Bueryan]

00Z GFS at hr 90-96 shows snow from Canada to California. Beautiful

[Requiem]

Well, at least Portland gets 2-4 inches from the GFS. Thus far. (Might be less, I'm only going by face value)

[Esquimalt]

That low is really stalling out on the GFS, looks amazing over a wide area. The GFS has been very consistent on a major snow event Friday - Saturday.

Weathernerds map is showing 10 inches for essentially all of the south island including all of Victoria. Can't wait to see what that does to traffic in the city

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sunday morning on the 00Z GFS looks just like yesterday evening.

 

 

The 00z GFS trended towards the EURO. It shows all snow for the I-5 corridor by Saturday 4pm. It shows cold gorge east winds down here by Saturday night.

 

[Requiem]

The 00z GFS trended towards the EURO. It shows all snow for the I-5 corridor by Saturday 4pm. It shows cold gorge east winds down here by Saturday night.

 

[joaqweri]

alright 00z gfs. 10-12" for seattle still

[Jbolin]

Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.

Holyshit

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right?

Its the barometric pressure difference between bellingham and the northern side of the bc mountains where the fraser river flows. The higher the pressure difference the stronger the wind.

[joaqweri]

gfs

jesus harold christ, i see it

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow, this is getting ridiculous:

 

[joaqweri]

euro is still 1 1/2 hours away

[Esquimalt]

Its the barometric pressure difference between bellingham and the northern side of the bc mountains where the fraser river flows. The higher the pressure difference the stronger the wind.

Those are gonna be some damaging outflow winds.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right?

The legendary 1989 blast was 24mb. The also legendary 1990 December blasts were 25mb. So this would be unbelievable.

[wxmet]

The warm nose is only 50mb deep near the surface on the GFS and is at most 2 degrees F from freezing. With heavy precip this is easily just all snow.

[joaqweri]

Those are gonna be some damaging outflow winds.

if it comes in while snow is still dumping, we could see blowing snow and maybe even blizzard conditions in spots.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would be shocked if anyplace north if Olympia have any rain at all.

[joaqweri]

The warm nose is only 50mb deep near the surface on the GFS and is at most 2 degrees F from freezing. With heavy precip this is easily just all snow.

yeah. evaporative cooling would likely take care of the temps with pushing them back down to freezing.