February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Deweydog]

Lives will be made.

Cabin fever!!!

[ewnichols25]

I had ~4" yesterday out in the yard, in a spot protected from the strong winds. Wind-exposed spots had far less snow accumulation and some unshaded lawns were already bare by this afternoon.

[Requiem]

Models for this storm show a foot for Seattle, and 2-3" for myself and others up in Whatcom County. So yeah, you can imagine the frustration

 

Yes, I hope a band stalls over you or something. 2-3 inches is great, don't get me wrong, but not when everyone around you has a foot.

[Perturbed Member]

Watched Mark's segment on the news, he showed the 12z ECMWF from Friday to Monday, he seemed pretty confident about the gorge dominating with the frigid east winds once each of these systems approach us. Mentioned how it might be snowing Saturday-Tuesday and possibly even Friday night if we manage to stay just cool enough. He's pretty hyped. 

[Requiem]

Watched Mark's segment on the news, he showed the 12z ECMWF from Friday to Monday, he seemed pretty confident about the gorge dominating with the frigid east winds once each of these systems approach us. Mentioned how it might be snowing Saturday-Tuesday and possibly even Friday night if we manage to stay just cool enough. He's pretty hyped. 

 

EURO shows it. So does the GEM. Just the notoriously bad GFS (for Gorge winds, at least) that doesn't.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This will be one of the most sleepless weeks of our lives.

Sleepless in PNW.

[Deweydog]

EURO shows it. So does the GEM. Just the notoriously bad GFS (for Gorge winds, at least) that doesn't.

The GFS generally handles gradients as well as other models. Euro is definitely on its own right now with a better influx of cold, dense air into the basin.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark is apparently now calling for significant snow chances through Valentine's Day.

Watched Mark's segment on the news, he showed the 12z ECMWF from Friday to Monday, he seemed pretty confident about the gorge dominating with the frigid east winds once each of these systems approach us. Mentioned how it might be snowing Saturday-Tuesday and possibly even Friday night if we manage to stay just cool enough. He's pretty hyped.

Always great to see Mark on board the train. God bless the Columbia River Gorge.

[Blizzard777]

weather app says rain this weekend is it gonna snow i hope it snow

My weather app thinks positive

[Prairiedog]

The track of the low will obviously be important but I'm spending more time watching pressure gradients in the basin.  That will tip the scale one way or the other for something I'd be calling significant. 

[Requiem]

The GFS generally handles gradients as well as other models. Euro is definitely on its own right now with a better influx of cold, dense air into the basin.

 

I don't know, the GFS almost always underplays the east wind. All the models do to some extent, but the GFS more so.

[Jbolin]

My location is on the higher hills in West Seattle. The town virtually shut down over 2-3 inches and schools have been closed the past 2 days with almost no snow on the main arterials. Can't imagine what the city will do if half the potential outcome from the weekend comes to fruition. But..been burned before too many times to count by telling my wife/ friends too quickly...wait until Thursday?

Did you live in W.Sea during Dec 2008? 

 

If not, then find some video/pics of those numerous snow events that absolutely crippled west seattle

 

I guarantee you IF the models come to fruition on Fri/Sat, you'll be singing a different tune

[jakeinthevalley]

Just got back from a trip to Stayton. Temp went down to 33f and a surprisingly intense snow/graupel shower. Must be some serious orograpics at work. Doesn't surprise me that Andrew mentioned it snowing at his place.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z nam much faster with snow. Belingham by about 5pm Thursday

[TigerWoodsLibido]

LOL NWS says a low of 25.  We are back up to 37 so there is zero chance that happens. 

[umadbro]

LOL NWS says a low of 25. We are back up to 37 so there is zero chance that happens.

Why do you say zero chance? What's the logic behind this?

[Bueryan]

Did you live in W.Sea during Dec 2008?

 

If not, then find some video/pics of those numerous snow events that absolutely crippled west seattle

 

I guarantee you IF the models come to fruition on Fri/Sat, you'll be singing a different tune

[Meatyorologist]

So Seattle proper got about 2-3". It's hard to tell what amounts were widespread sometimes because in my mind everyone in W. Washington on here is "from Seattle," but I know different locations up there vary wildly. 

Yet here in the north part of the city a sound 4-5". It really was dependent on who received accumulating snow first. Areas to the north and east of the city got up to 10".

[MossMan]

Currently 20 after a high of 31.6.

[Bueryan]

Just ask Greg Nickels

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Why do you say zero chance? What's the logic behind this?

Cloud cover.

[TT-SEA]

00z nam much faster with snow. Belingham by about 5pm Thursday

But slowing down from its 12Z run. Its playing catch up.

[jakeinthevalley]

Cloud cover.

Respectfully, the air mass aloft is quite cold. It wouldn't take much clearing to have the bottom drop out. Snowfall on the ground would have helped, but we are just talking about lowering the floor.

[Cloud]

Cloud cover.

Some weather stations around your area shows clearing by midnight but down to 29 by sunrise.

[MossMan]

My main road conditions didn’t change at today. My driveway which is quite steep (hard to tell by pic) and was becoming glazed compact snow and ice so I had to sand it.

 

Nice day!!

[joaqweri]

tonight's NAM has the low hugging the WA coast after sliding off van island, snow beginning in seattle around midday friday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

But slowing down from its 12Z run. Its playing catch up.

Thats not what I'm seeing. Compare 00z at 09z to 12z at 09z.

[Requiem]

tonight's NAM has the low hugging the WA coast after sliding off van island, snow beginning in seattle around midday friday

 

Still gives PDX just a cold rain....

[joaqweri]

only goes out to 12Z (4am) saturday which has it still snowing steadily by then, but already 4" in seattle

[luvssnow_spokane]

Models for this storm show a foot for Seattle, and 2-3" for myself and others up in Whatcom County. So yeah, you can imagine the frustration

I really do hope you can score more than that. I do think from past events many of us can relate. I hope you get pounded with snow!!

[Lars43]

 Signed up, hopefully it will help break the record! Skies have cleared here down to 35. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAM faster with the moisture arrival. Also, 850s are colder looks a lot like the ECMWF bringing the cold air in sooner and tracking that low hugging it along the Washington Coast. The source region for this air mass is coming from Northwest Territories, AB... Oh this 1061mb high over BC couldn't hurt. Wow. That mega high would force arctic air further south/southwest into WA/OR than is modeled. We could see much colder model runs ahead, especially Gorge, Columbia Basin.

 

 

00z GFS in 27 minutes

[Requiem]

00z NAM faster with the moisture arrival. Also, 850s are colder looks a lot like the ECMWF bringing the cold air in sooner and tracking that low hugging it along the Washington Coast. The source region for this air mass is coming from Northwest Territories, AB... Oh this 1061mb high over BC couldn't hurt. Wow. We could see much colder model runs ahead, especially Gorge, Columbia Basin.

 

 

00z GFS in 27 minutes

 

So....better run?

[joaqweri]

cooled back down to 27F, melted snow from the sunshine and 35F high today should be refreezing

[Westy]

Did you live in W.Sea during Dec 2008? 

 

If not, then find some video/pics of those numerous snow events that absolutely crippled west seattle

 

I guarantee you IF the models come to fruition on Fri/Sat, you'll be singing a different tune

Yes, 2008 was arguable the best event of my lifetime. Big snow dump followed by days of cold and hard freeze at night.  Probably the last time the old sled was pulled out of the garage where ice was actually under the snow and thick enough to sled. Hoping for the same this weekend.

[joaqweri]

GFS in half an hour

[GHweatherChris]

So....better run?

Let it play out youngster...

[TT-SEA]

Thats not what I'm seeing. Compare 00z at 09z to 12z at 09z.

 

 

Friday at 10 a.m.

 

00Z run

 

 

12Z run

 

 

 

Slightly slower at that time.    Snow was farther into Snohomish and King counties on the 12Z run.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's pretty neat to see the general pattern repeating itself. Here is the EURO analysis for yesterday at 4pm. Then what the 12z EURO showed at days 5 and 10 today. Basically if it verifies, we'll have 3 separate troughs digging into Southern Oregon around 5 days apart from each other.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon is faster with precip also.